Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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This Is How It Ends: All That Is Solid Melts Into Air

2020-09-13

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2020-09-13

workers share of national income, 1994-2020
While the Federal Reserve and the Billionaire Class push the stock market to new highs to promote a false facade of prosperity, everyday life will fall apart. How will the status quo collapse? An open conflict--a civil war, an insurrection, a coup--appeals to our affection for drama, but the more likely reality is a decidedly undramatic dissolution in which all the elements of our way of life we reckoned were solid and permanent simply melt into...

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Intolerance and Authoritarianism Accelerate Disunity and Collapse

2020-09-12

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2020-09-12

Scapegoating dissenters only hastens the disunity and disarray that accelerates the final collapse. Authoritarianism is imposed on us, but its sibling intolerance is our own doing. Intolerance and authoritarianism are two sides of the same coin: as intolerance becomes the norm, the intolerant start demanding that the state enforce their intolerance by suppressing their enemies via increasingly heavy-handed authoritarian measures.

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Re-recession Not Required

2020-09-12

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2020-09-12

Japan Economy, 2013-2020
If we are going to see negative nominal Treasury rates, what would guide yields toward such a plunge? It seems like a recession is the ticket, the only way would have to be a major economic downturn. Since we’ve already experienced one in 2020, a big one no less, and are already on our way back up to recovery (some say), then have we seen the lows in rates?Not for nothing, every couple years when we do those (record low yields) that’s what “they”...

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Sterling Pounded by Brexit Developments

2020-09-11

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2020-09-11

The dollar rebound continues; odds of a near-term stimulus bill in the US are falling; ahead of inflation readings later this week, the US holds a 10-year auction today. Bank of Canada is expected to keep policy steady; Mexico reports August CPI; Brazil reports August IPCA inflation.

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ECB Preview

2020-09-10

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2020-09-10

Balance Sheets, USD Trin, 2007-2019
The ECB meets tomorrow and is widely expected to stand pat. Macro forecasts may be tweaked modestly and there are some risks of jawboning against the stronger euro, but it should otherwise be an uneventful meeting. Looking ahead, a lot of room remains for further ECB actions.

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Bottleneck In Japanese

2020-09-09

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2020-09-09

US / Japan, 2018-2020
Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening.

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Monthly Market Monitor – August 2020

2020-09-08

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2020-09-08

Russell 3000 Value/Growth
Many of the weak dollar trends I noted in June’s update have moderated – even as the dollar has weakened further. US stocks surged over the last month, with growth indices leaving their value counterparts in the dust…again.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-09-08

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2020-09-08

EM performance this week will hinge crucially on whether US equity markets can find some traction. If sustained, last week’s equity rout could lead to a deeper generalized risk-off trading environment this week that would weigh on EM FX and equities.

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 24, Part 2: Peering Behind The (Unemployment Rate) Curtain

2020-09-06

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2020-09-06

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK...

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Powell Would Ask For His Money Back, If The Fed Did Money

2020-09-05

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2020-09-05

UST Yield Curve, 2020
Since the unnecessary destruction brought about by GFC2 in March 2020, there have been two detectable, short run trendline upward moves in nominal Treasury yields. Both were predictably classified across the entire financial media as the guaranteed first steps toward the “inevitable” BOND ROUT!!!!

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Writing Rebound in Italian

2020-09-04

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2020-09-04

Real GDP Pro forma, 2005-2023
As the calendar turned to September, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued new guidelines expanding and extending existing moratoriums previously put in place to stop evictions during the pandemic.

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Deflation of the Citizenry’s Hard Assets Will Be a Huge Buying Opportunity for Insider Power Elites

2020-09-02

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2020-09-02

The gravy train will have to stop at some point, but right now the global elites have pushed their chips on to the U.S. dollar and stocks. Editor's note: This is a guest post by my friend and colleague Zeus Yiamouyiannis, Ph.D., who has contributed essays to Of Two Minds since 2009.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-08-31

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2020-08-31

The dollar is likely to remain under pressure after Powell’s dovish message at Jackson Hole. August jobs data Friday will be the data highlight of the week. The Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday; Powell will face many questions about the Framework Review that he unveiled at Jackson Hole.

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Nihilism Embodied: Our Lawless Financial System

2020-08-31

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2020-08-31

Not only have the billionaire class made money, they have tightened their monopolistic grip on the levers of money supply and distribution, turning a global rigged casino into a global company town.

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America’s Metastasizing Class Wars

2020-08-29

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2020-08-29

Soaring Income Inequality
Class wars are the inevitable result of an economic system in which 'anything goes if you're rich enough and winners take most'. The traditional class war has been waged between wage-earners (who sell their labor) and their employers (owners of capital and the means of production).

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This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…

2020-08-28

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2020-08-28

US Treasury and Auction Rates, Oct 2018 Aug 2020
After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?I’m talking, of course, about Jackson Hole and Jay Powell’s reportedly genius masterstroke.

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Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?

2020-08-27

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2020-08-27

US Banking Data, 1978 - 2020
Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020 (VIDEO)

2020-08-26

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2020-08-26

Monthly Macro Monitor August 2020
Monthly macro monitor review of August 2020 with Bob Williams and Joe Calhoun.

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Meaning Mexico

2020-08-25

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2020-08-25

Mexico Light Vehicle Production, Jan 2006 - Jul 2020
It took some doing, and some time, but Mexico has managed to bring its car production back up to more normal levels. For two months, there had been practically zero automaking in one of the biggest auto-producing nations. Getting back near where things left off, however, isn’t exactly a “V” shaped recovery; it’s only halfway.

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*These* Are The Real Huge Jobs Numbers, And They Will Make Your Blood Run Cold

2020-08-24

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2020-08-24

U.S. Unemployment Insurance; Initial Jobless Claims, Mar 2017 - Jun 2020
There is simply no way to spin these figures as anything good. Not just the usual ones were talking about here, but more so some new data that you probably haven’t seen before. Beginning with the regular, it doesn’t matter that the level of initial jobless claims has declined substantially over the past few weeks

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