Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Is a Liquidity Trap Really a Problem? Yen Debasement Part3 by Noah Smith

2013-02-10

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2013-02-10

Thoughts on the Japanese Currency Debasement (part 3) In previous posts we looked on the following aspects of the recent Japanese currency debasement: Overview: What different leading economists – Paul Krugman, Richard Koo, Adam Posen, Kyle Bass – think about the Japanese currency debasement and the way to more private spending and investing instead of …

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Sell in May, Come Back in October (outdated)

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. This year the improvement was a bit earlier thanks to QE3. By March the economy already weakened according to the latest ISM PMIs.

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Macro Analytics 02-02-13 – RIP: Our Expansionist Central State – w/Charles Hugh Smith

2013-02-06

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Like the sun coming up in the morning, Central State planning and expansion predictably leads to state spending exceeding the rate of the real growth of the state’s economy. The US Central State has been no exception and has been relentlessly expanding faster than GDP since the 1950s with only two notable exceptions. The dot.com …

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01-05-13 Macro Analytics – 2013 THEMES – Charles Hugh Smith

2013-02-05

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THE FOLLOWING ARE EXPLORED Rising SYSTEMIC FRAGILITY is increasing the odds of an “unexpected” breakdown. it is now reaching a “Threshold of Vulnerability”. The FED LOSSES POLITICAL CAPITAL in 2013. We are witnessing a reduced impact of each QE version, Expect Hope to Turn to Fear when this occurs. ECONOMIC STAGNATION and PERMANENT ADOLESCENCE Using …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

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2013-01-26

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Epic Shift in Monetary Policy: Japan goes SNB, Nuclear Option

2013-01-14

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2013-01-14

According to Bloomberg, at least prime minister Abe is taking the nuclear option and is following the SNB in buying foreign assets. This is a huge change in global monetary policy.

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2012 Posts on Global Macro

Debt, the Financial Cycle Determinant between 2011 and 2017

Between 2011 and 2017, the reduction of debt , the hunt on the rich and investment into countries with low debt will become the main rational expectation and the determinant of the next financial cycle.

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Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc

2012-12-27

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2012-12-27

Quantitative Easing Mechanisms
The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. … Continue reading »

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12-22-12 Macro Analytics – RECAPPING 2012 Charles Hugh Smith

2012-12-27

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As a regular MACRO ANALYTICS Co-Host, Charles Hugh Smith has recorded over 20 session in 2012, each averaging close to 30 slides for over 600 slides and 8-10 hours of viewing. Selecting the highlights is a daunting task.Distilling it down, there are some central messages that are worth taking the time to reinforce. ALL OF …

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The Biggest Bubble of the Century is Ending: Government Bond Yields

2012-12-26

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2012-12-26

Since 1960 Treasury Yield Chart
Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century? Update August 16, 2013: So, 10-year Treasury yields have ended the day closer to 3 per cent. But not as close as they … Continue reading »

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17

2012-12-20

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2012-12-20

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012.   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …

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Main US Economic Indicators

2012-12-17

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2012-12-17

US Recession Indicators Concurrent Indicators
The four best “recession” indicators, in form of coincident economic indicators, can be seen at Doug Short/Advisor Perspectives Update September 2013   Update December 21th, 2012   We observe the following: US indicators point upwards, when the rest of the world is slowing. After capital left many emerging markets and Europe, this capital helps the United States …

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10-30-12 Macro Analytics – LESSONS FROM JAPAN – Charles Hugh Smith

2012-11-17

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Japan has experienced massive debt buildup, a growing interest payment burden, long term economic stagnation and now an emerging trade deficit. The question posed in this discussion between Gordon T Long and Charles High Smith is: “how has Japan avoided an economc death spiral?”. Japan has been a model and case study in stagnation and …

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10-27-12 Macro Analytics – CONSTITUTIONAL PRESSURES – Charles Hugh Smith

2012-11-17

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The importance of SOUND MONEY can not be overstated. The principle of sound money is a central pillar in the protection of the public’s constitutional rights, the control of relentless government spending and the restriction of political ‘reach’ and growth of socialist programs. This fundamental guiding tenet was well understood prior to the founding of …

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11-06-12 Macro Analytics – Triffin’s Paradox – Rule of Law – Charles Hugh Smith

2012-11-17

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The Triffin’s Paradox is a theory that when a national currency also serves as an international reserve currency, there could be conflicts of interest between short-term domestic and long-term international economic objectives. This dilemma was first identified by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s, who pointed out that the country whose currency foreign nations …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10

2012-11-12

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2012-11-12

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
  Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world.  BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry   December 3, 2012 …

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