Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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India: The next Pakistan?

2017-03-29

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2017-03-29

The Modimobile is making the rounds amid a flower shower. [PT] Photo credit: PTI Photo
India’s Rapid Degradation. This is Part XI of a series of articles (the most recent of which is linked here) in which I have provided regular updates on what started as the demonetization of 86% of India’s currency. The story of demonetization and the ensuing developments were merely a vehicle for me to explore Indian institutions, culture and society.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-03-28

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2017-03-28

B-weekly
The Fed did, as expected, hike rates at their last meeting. And interestingly, interest rates have done nothing but fall since that day. As I predicted in the last BWER, Greenspan’s conundrum is making a comeback. The Fed can do whatever it wants with Fed funds – heck, barely anyone is using it anyway – but they can’t control what the market does with long term rates.

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The aquanauts who journey to the bottom of the ocean

2017-03-28

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Ever wondered what it is like to descend in a submersible into the deepest ocean? Check out Economist Films: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/ Follow The Economist on Twitter: https://twitter.com/theeconomist Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theeconomist/ Follow us on LINE: http://econ.st/1WXkOo6...

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Diving down to the deep ocean

2017-03-27

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Even in the perpetual darkness of the deepest ocean, scientists discover the discarded rubbish of modern life. Check out Economist Films: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/ Follow The Economist on Twitter: https://twitter.com/theeconomist Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theeconomist/ Follow us on...

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Forget ObamaCare, RyanCare, and any Future ReformCare-the Healthcare System Is Completely Broken

2017-03-27

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2017-03-27

U.S. Healthcare System
It's time to start planning for what we'll do when the current healthcare system implodes. As with many other complex, opaque systems in the U.S., only those toiling in the murky depths of the healthcare system know just how broken the entire system is.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-03-27

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2017-03-27

EM FX ended the week on a firm note. Indeed, virtually all of EM was up against the dollar last week, led by ZAR and MXN. BRL and PHP were the laggards. It remains to be seen how markets react to the failure to pass the health care reform in the US. Will Trump move on the tax reform? Can the Republicans proceed with its agenda in light of the fissures within the party?

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The Inverse of Keynes

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

S&P 500 EPS Q4 2016
With nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 numbers, we can safely claim that it was a very bad earnings season. It may seem incredulous to categorize the quarter that way given that EPS growth (as reported) was +29%, but even that rate tells us something significant about how there is, actually, a relationship between economy and at least corporate profits.

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Renters Now Rule Half of U.S. Cities

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

The American Dream increasingly involves a lease, not a mortgage. Detroit was once known as a city where a working-class family could afford to own a home. Now it’s a city of renters. Just 49 percent of Motor City households were homeowners in 2015, down from 55 percent in 2009 and the lowest percentage in more than 50 years.

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The Deep State’s Dominant Narratives and Authority Are Crumbling

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

boris and natasha
This is why the Deep State is fracturing: its narratives no longer align with the evidence. As this chart from Google Trends illustrates, interest in the Deep State has increased dramatically in 2017. The term/topic has clearly moved from the specialist realm to the mainstream. I've been writing about the Deep State, and specifically, the fractures in the Deep State, for years.

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All In The Curves

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

Notable events in the 2003 deflation scare
If the mainstream is confused about exactly what rate hikes mean, then they are not alone. We know very well what they are supposed to, but the theoretical standards and assumptions of orthodox understanding haven’t worked out too well and for a very long time now. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury is today yielding less than it did when the FOMC announced their second rate hike in December.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

Reserve Bank of India will introduce a new monetary policy tool. Moody’s raised the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from stable to positive. Fitch cut Saudi Arabia’s rating a notch to A+. Moody’s cut the outlook on Turkey’s Ba1 rating from stable to negative. China has temporarily suspended beef imports from Brazil.

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TIC Analysis of Selling

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

When the Treasury Department released its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December, what was a somewhat obscure report suddenly found mainstream attention. Private foreign investors had sold tens of billions in US securities primarily US Treasury bonds and notes which the media then made into some kind of warning to then-incoming President Trump. It was supposed to be a big deal, the kind of rebuke reserved for disreputable leaders of...

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Central Bankers Are Creating A World Where We Are All Serfs: Charles Hugh Smith

2017-03-25

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Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds http://www.oftwominds.com Books: Get a Job, Build a Real Career… Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It A Radically Beneficial World http://amzn.com/1517160960 Most of artwork that are included with these videos have been created by X22 Report and they are used as …

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Durable Goods After Leap Year

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

Durable Goods New Orders, NSA 1993-2017
New orders for durable goods (not including transportation orders) were up 1% year-over-year in February. That is less than the (revised) 4.4% growth in January, but as with all comparisons of February 2017 to February 2016 there will be some uncertainty surrounding the comparison to the leap year version.

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What could threaten Amazon’s empire? | The Economist

2017-03-24

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Amazon accounts for more than half of every dollar spent online in America and is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. But can the company avoid the attention of the regulators? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 This week we put Amazon on the cover. Amazon is a remarkable company …

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The deep ocean is the final frontier on planet Earth | The Economist

2017-03-23

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Watch the latest in the Ocean series – How to stop plastics getting into the ocean: https://youtu.be/D7EdgCxFZ8Q The ocean covers 70% of our planet. The deep-sea floor is a realm that is largely unexplored, but cutting-edge technology is enabling a new generation of aquanauts to go deeper than ever before. Click here to subscribe to …

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Non-Randomly Surveying RMB

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

PBOC RMB Liquidity Management 2014-2017
China’s central bank, unlike other central banks, is constantly active almost never resting. Because it is always in motion, the PBOC can seem to be “adding” liquidity at the very same time it might be “draining” it. Its specific actions should never be interpreted as standalone procedures related solely to some unknown policy stance. That is particularly true given that we know what their stance is and has been – neutral.

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Economics Through The Economics of Oil

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

The last time oil inventory grew at anywhere close to this pace was during each of the last two selloffs, the first in late 2014/early 2015 and the second following about a year after. Those events were relatively easy to explain in terms of both price and fundamentals, though the mainstream managed to screw it up anyway (“supply glut”).

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Pressure, Sure, But From Where?

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

Belly of the Curve Gone Flat 2009-2017
It may just be that in life you have to get used to disappointment. Though not for lack of trying, I have spent a great deal of time over the years intending to piece together exactly what happened on days like October 15, 2014. The official explanation is an obvious whitewash, one so haphazard that I doubt it will ever be referred to again outside of ridicule.

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Was There Ever A ‘Skills Mismatch’? Notable Differences In Job Openings Suggest No

2017-03-20

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2017-03-20

JOLTS - Job Openings, Acceleration, Dec 2000 - 2016
Perhaps the most encouraging data produced by the BLS has been within its JOLTS figures, those of Job Openings. It is one data series that policymakers watch closely and one which they purportedly value more than most. While the unemployment and participation rates can be caught up in structural labor issues (heroin and retirees), Job Openings are related to the demand for labor rather than the complications on the labor supply side.

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