Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Manufacturing Back To 2014

2017-03-07

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2017-03-07

Factory Orders for All Manufacturing Industies, SA 1992-2016
The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 57.7 in February 2017, the highest value since August 2014 (revised). It was just slightly less than that peak in the 2014 “reflation” cycle. Given these comparisons, economic narratives have been spun further than even the past few years where “strong” was anything but.

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The European Union is facing a threat to its very existence | The Economist

2017-03-06

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The Treaty of Rome was signed 60 years ago this month. But can European leaders make the EU appealing to a new generation of more sceptical voters? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ …

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Emerging Market Preview for the Week Ahead

2017-03-06

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2017-03-06

EM FX was mostly softer last week, though it ended the week firmer, buoyed by outsized MXN gains Friday. The Fed is sending very strong signals for a March hike, which should keep EM FX on its back foot. However, with the March 15 FOMC embargo coming into effect, there will be no Fed speakers after Kashkari on Monday. Jobs data on Friday will be the highlight, but given the Fed’s signals, we do not think a soft report will derail a hike next...

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 03 03 17 – Is Retail CRE The Next Financial Implosion? – w/Charles Hugh Smith

2017-03-05

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ABSTRACT: https://matasii.com/is-retail-commercial-real-estate-the-next-financial-implosion/

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-03-05

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2017-03-05

Economic Reports Scorecard. The economic data released since my last update has been fairly positive but future growth and inflation expectations, as measured by our market indicators, have waned considerably. There is now a distinct divergence between the current data, stocks and bonds. Bond yields, both real and nominal, have fallen recently even as stocks continue their relentless march higher.

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Economic Dissonance, Too

2017-03-04

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2017-03-04

Germany Industrial Production, SA 1997-2016
Germany is notoriously fickle when it comes to money, speaking as much of discipline in economy or industry as central banking. If ever there is disagreement about monetary arrangements, surely the Germans are behind it. Since ECB policy only ever attains the one direction, so-called accommodation, there never seems to be harmony.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

2017-03-04

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2017-03-04

A Korean special prosecutor indicted Samsung chief Jay Y. Lee on bribery charges. Korean press is reporting that China has told its travel agents to halt sales of holiday packages to South Korea. Bulgaria’s interim government said it may apply to join the eurozone within a month. South Africa’s main labor union Cosatu accepted a government-proposed minimum wage.

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True Cognitive Dissonance

2017-03-04

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2017-03-04

Inflation In Japan 2011-2016
There is gold in Asia, at least gold of the intellectual variety for anyone who wishes to see it. The Chinese offer us perhaps the purest view of monetary conditions globally, where RMB money markets are by design tied directly to “dollar” behavior. It is, in my view, enormously helpful to obsess over China’s monetary system so as to be able to infer a great deal about the global monetary system deep down beyond the “event horizon.”

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Real Disposable Income: Headwinds of the Negative

2017-03-03

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2017-03-03

PCE Chain-type Price Index 2008-2017
The PCE Deflator for January 2017 rose just 1.89% year-over-year. It was the 57th consecutive month less than the 2% mandate (given by the Fed itself when in early 2012 it made the 2% target for this metric its official definition of price stability).

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Why Is the Cost of Living so Unaffordable?

2017-03-03

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2017-03-03

US Health care 1960-2010
Strip away the centralized power that protects and funds cartels, and prices would plummet. The mainstream narrative is "the problem is low wages." Actually, the problem is the soaring cost of living. If essentials such as healthcare, housing, higher education and government services were as cheap as they once were, a wage of $10 or $12 an hour would be more than enough to maintain a decent everyday life.

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How do animals change their colour? | The Economist

2017-03-03

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Take a look at the science behind the kaleidoscopic animals that can adopt new colours at will. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Chameleons aren’t the only animals that can change colour. Some primates can blush. How do animals change colour? 1. Brain signals: The colours of the environment, a rival, …

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Some Notes On GDP Past And Present

2017-03-01

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2017-03-01

GDP PCE Deflator QQ YY, January 2009 - April 2016
The second estimate for GDP was so similar to the first as to be in all likelihood statistically insignificant. The preliminary estimate for real GDP was given as $16,804.8 billion. The updated figure is now $16,804.1 billion. In nominal terms there was more variation, where the preliminary estimate of $18,860.8 billion is now replaced by one for $18,855.5 billion.

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What to expect from Donald Trump’s address to Congress

2017-02-28

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The White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, says the theme of Donald Trump’s address to Congress will be “the renewal of the American spirit”. What are the chances the president will turn the rhetoric into reality? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the …

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Durable Goods Groundhog

2017-02-28

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2017-02-28

Durable Goods New Orders, NSA 1993-2017
If the economy is repeating the after-effects of the latest “dollar” events, and it does seem more and more to be that case, then analysis starts with identifying a range for where it might be in the repetition. New orders for durable goods (ex transportation) rose 4.3% year-over-year in January 2017 (NSA, only 2.4% SA), the highest growth rate since September 2014 (though not meaningfully faster than the 3.9% rate in November 2016).

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Virtue-Signaling the Decline of the Empire

2017-02-28

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2017-02-28

Top 1% US Pre-Tax Income Share, 1913-2012
Virtue-signaling doesn't signal virtue--it signals decline and collapse. There are many reasons why Imperial Rome declined, but two primary causes that get relatively little attention are moral decay and soaring wealth inequality. The two are of course intimately connected: once the morals of the ruling Elites degrade, the status quo seeks to mask its self-serving rot behind high-minded "virtue-signaling" appeals to past glories and cost-free...

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It Was ‘Dollars’ All Along

2017-02-28

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2017-02-28

Giant Sucking Sound 1960 - 2015
Ross Perot famously declared the “giant sucking sound” in the 1992 Presidential campaign. The debate over NAFTA did not end with George H. W. Bush’s defeat, as it simmered in one form or another for much of the 1990’s. Curiously, however, it seemed almost perfectly absent during the 2000’s, the very decade in which Perot’s prophecy came true. Americans didn’t notice because there was a bubble afoot.

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The coral Noah’s Ark

2017-02-27

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In Hawaii, a group of scientists is creating the world’s only bank of coral sperm. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and yet are relatively unknown. Dive down to their deepest depths to discover …

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Corals are fighting back

2017-02-27

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In Palau, corals are thriving despite climate change. What’s their secret? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and yet are relatively unknown. Dive down to their deepest depths to discover how scientists are using …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-02-27

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2017-02-27

EM FX ended last week on a soft note despite lower US rates. The dollar regained some traction that it lost over the course of the week, when markets pushed out Fed tightening beyond March. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also seemed to push out fiscal stimulus. There is a full slate of Fed speakers this week, and Wednesday sees the release of the Fed’s Beige book that was prepared for the March 15 FOMC meeting.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-02-25

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2017-02-25

PBOC tweaked its process for determining the yuan reference rate. Singapore is reportedly studying measures to boost revenue, including higher taxes. Moody’s upgraded the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from negative to stable. Nigerian President Buhari extended his stay abroad. Nigerian central bank tweaked its FX restrictions, but was aimed at retail demand. Brazil political risk is back on the table. Brazil’s central bank hinted at a faster pace...

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