Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Industrial production: The Chinese Appear To Be Rushed

2018-01-04

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2018-01-04

All China's Dollars, Aug 2016 - Jan 2018
While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal funding, HKD wouldn’t move let alone as much as it has). China’s currency, however, was curiously restrained during that...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

2018-01-03

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2018-01-03

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact – positive and negative – from the hurricanes a few months ago though so it is probably prudent to wait for more evidence before making any definitive pronouncements about the economy.

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California’s recreational cannabis legalisation | The Economist

2018-01-02

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Cannabis can now be sold legally for recreational use in California. The change in law in the most populous American state has the potential to make marijuana go mainstream. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2lI31px Could California make cannabis go mainstream? California is not the first American state to legalise cannabis …

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The Hidden-in-Plain-Sight Mechanism of the Super-Wealthy: Money-Laundering 2.0

2018-01-02

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2018-01-02

Fruit of Financialization: Soaring Income Inequality - 1980 - 2017
Financial and political power are two sides of one coin. We all know the rich are getting richer, and the super-rich are getting super-richer. This reality is illustrated in the chart of income gains, the vast majority of which have flowed to the top .01%--not the top 1%, or the top .1% -- to the very tippy top of the wealth-power pyramid.

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Should three-parent families be legally recognised? | The Economist

2018-01-01

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What does a modern family look like? The Economist’s Matt Steinglass travels to the Netherlands where multiple-parent families–with up to four parents–could be recognised by law. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2B3k8sA What does a modern family look like? The Netherlands could become the first country in the world to allow …

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“Wealth Effect” = Widening Wealth Inequality

2018-01-01

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2018-01-01

Spending by the top 5% pulls away from 95%
Note that widening wealth and income inequality is a non-partisan trend. One of the core goals of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies of the past 9 years is to generate the "wealth effect": by pushing the valuations of stocks and bonds higher, American households will feel wealthier, and hence be more willing to borrow and spend, even if they didn't actually reap any gains by selling stocks and bonds that gained value.

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The BoJ is sticking to monetary easing

2017-12-30

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2017-12-30

YoY Changes in headline and Core CPI in Japan
The BoJ remains the last major central bank still firmly committed to large-scale monetary easing.After its Monetary Policy Meeting of December 21, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its intention to keep its current monetary easing programme intact. The BOJ will continue with its “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control ”, aiming to achieve and overshoot the core inflation target of 2%.

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Global macro: 10 surprises for 2018

2017-12-29

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2017-12-29

Having laid down our expectations for the World economy in 2018, in this note we describe a number of potential surprises to the outlook. The usual suspects, or ‘known unknowns’, include a larger-than-expected fiscal boost from US tax cuts, (geo-)political risks, economic policy mistakes, inflation surprises, a financial bubble burst, or a Minsky moment in China, to name a few.

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MUST : The ‘Wealth Effect’ Is Widening Wealth Inequality Charles Hugh Smith

2017-12-29

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Please click above to subscribe to my channel Thanks for ing! Financial News Silver News Gold Bix Weir RoadToRoota Road To Roota Kyle Bass Realist News Greg Mannarino Rob Kirby Reluctant. What does politics in the United States have in common with that of declining empires of ages past? Too much, argues Glenn Hubbard. The …

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Chinese demand leads the Swiss watch industry’s recovery

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

Switzerland Exports, 2005 - 2017
The most important driver of the Swiss watch industry’s recovery has been the revival of the mainland China market. After years of impressive growth, the Swiss watch industry faced difficult conditions in 2015 and 2016, when exports declined by 3.2% and 9.9% respectively in value terms.

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Christmas 2017: Why I’m Hopeful

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

Constantine Cavafy Poem
A more human world lies just beyond the edge of the Status Quo. Readers often ask me to post something hopeful, and I understand why: doom-and-gloom gets tiresome. Human beings need hope just as they need oxygen, and the destruction of the Status Quo via over-reach and internal contradictions doesn't leave much to be happy about.

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Santa’s Stock Market Rally: Tears of Joy, Or Just Tears?

2017-12-27

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2017-12-27

VXX S&P 500
Judging by this year's version of Santa Claus's reliable year-end stock market rally, risk has vanished, not just in stocks but in bonds, junk bonds, housing, commercial real estate, collectible art--just about the entire spectrum of tradable assets (with precious metals and agricultural commodities among the few receiving coals rather than rallies).

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH The Lower You Push Interest Rates The Longer You Can Keep The System Al

2017-12-26

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SUBSCRIBE for Latest on FINANCIAL CR / OIL PRICE / PETROL/ GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE / DOLLAR COLLAPSE / GOLD / SILVER / BITCOIN / ETHERIUM / CRYPTOCURRENCY / LITECOIN /FINANCIAL CRASH /. CHARLES HUGH SMITH The Lower You Push Interest Rates The Longer You Can Keep The System Alive ———————————- $ Help Finance News reach …

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Central Bankers Are Creating A World Where We Are All Serfs Charles Hugh Smith

2017-12-24

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Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds Books: Get a Job, Build a Real Career. Why. Thanks for ing. Thanks for ing. Central Bankers Are Creating A World Where We Are All Serfs Charles Hugh Smith. Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds Books: Get a Job, Build a Real Career.

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US to overtake Switzerland in WEF competitiveness survey?

2017-12-24

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2017-12-24

Most Problematic Factor for Business in US
The US is about to enact significant corporate tax cuts, and could therefore edge closer to the number 1 spot in the World Economic Forum’s ranking – currently held by Switzerland. The US is about to enact significant corporate tax cuts, that will see the federal statutory corporate tax rate drop to 21%, from 35%, starting in January (see our latest note ‘US tax cuts update – 19 December 2017’).

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US tax bill looks set to pass

2017-12-24

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2017-12-24

The tax bill continues to make its way through Congress at a swift pace, and now looks increasingly likely to be enacted into law this week, after clearing the conference committee hurdle (a compromise between the House and Senate versions). A few hesitating Republican Senators have eventually said they will vote in favour of the bill, which is key as the Republican majority in the Senate is slim at 52-48. It will shrink to 51-49 in January after...

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Federal Council adopts measures to tackle high prices in Switzerland

2017-12-23

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2017-12-23

Swiss flag is pictured next to Jet d'Eau and Lake Leman from the St-Pierre Cathedrale in Geneva
On 20 December the Federal Council decided to unilaterally remove tariffs on imported industrial goods. Tariffs will also be reduced on selected agricultural goods not produced in Switzerland. Furthermore, the government wants to apply the Cassis de Dijon principle more widely by reducing the number of exceptions to it. These measures should lead to considerable savings of around CHF 900 million for businesses and consumers. Previously, on 8...

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The Economy Likes Its IP Less Lumpy

2017-12-23

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2017-12-23

US Industrial Production, Jan 2011 - Dec 2017
Industrial Production rose 3.4% year-over-year in November 2017, the highest growth rate in exactly three years. The increase was boosted by the aftermath of Harvey and Irma, leaving more doubt than optimism for where US industry is in 2017. For one thing, of that 3.4% growth rate, more than two-thirds was attributable to just two months.

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Regulating Cryptocurrencies–and Why It Matters

2017-12-22

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2017-12-22

S-Curve of Centralization
Nations that attempt to limit cryptocurrencies' ability to solve these problems will find that protecting high costs and systemic friction will grind their economies into dust. There's a great deal of confusion right now about the regulation of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. Many observers seem to confuse "regulation" and "banning bitcoin," as if regulation amounts to outlawing bitcoin.

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Chinese Are Not Tightening, Though They Would Be Thrilled If You Thought That

2017-12-22

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2017-12-22

RMB Money, Jan - Dec 2017
The PBOC has two seemingly competing objectives that in reality are one and the same. Overnight, China’s central bank raised two of its money rates. The rate it charges mostly the biggest banks for access to the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) was increased by 5 bps to 3.25%. In addition, its reverse repo interest settings were also moved up by 5 bps each at the various tenors (to 2.50% for the 7-day, 2.80% for the 28-day).

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