Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Ireland: divided by abortion | The Economist

2018-05-09

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Abortion is banned in Ireland in almost all circumstances, including rape and incest. On May 25th voters will have their say in a referendum that could repeal the ban. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2FEY1tD Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2FE3sJB …

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil, Interest Rates & Economic Growth

2018-05-09

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2018-05-09

Economic Growth and Investment
The yield on the 10 year Treasury note briefly surpassed the supposedly important 3% barrier and then….nothing. So, maybe, contrary to all the commentary that placed such importance on that level, it was just another line on a chart and the bond bear market fear mongering told us a lot about the commentators and not a lot about the market or the economy.

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Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead

2018-05-08

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2018-05-08

EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-05-07

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2018-05-07

Bank Indonesia is taking measures to stabilize the local bond market. The Philippine central bank is tilting more hawkish. Czech National Bank cut its inflation forecasts. The Turkish government is loosening fiscal policy to drum up popular support. S&P downgraded Turkey to BB- with stable outlook. Argentina officials are taking significant measures to support the peso. Brazil central bank made a subtle shift in its FX intervention strategy.

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Taking the Pulse of a Weakening Economy

2018-05-05

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2018-05-05

Global Central Bank Security Purchases, 2009 - 2018
Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole. Central banks have been running a grand experiment for 9 years, and now we're about to find out if it succeeds or fails. For 9 unprecedented years, central banks have pushed the pedal of monetary stimulus to the metal: near-zero interest rates, monumental purchases of bonds, mortgage-backed securities, stocks and corporate bonds.

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Was Karl Marx right? | The Economist

2018-05-04

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Karl Marx remains surprisingly relevant 200 years after his birth. He rightly predicted some of the pitfalls of capitalism, but his solution was far worse than the disease. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2FEY1tD Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2FE3sJB Check …

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What Lies Beyond Capitalism and Socialism?

2018-05-04

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2018-05-04

Global Debt, 1997 - 2017
The status quo, in all its various forms, is dominated by incentives that strengthen the centralization of wealth and power. As longtime readers know, my work aims to 1) explain why the status quo -- the socio-economic-political system we inhabit -- is unsustainable, divisive, and doomed to collapse under its own weight and 2) sketch out an alternative Mode of Production/way of living that is sustainable, consumes far less resources while providing...

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 05-03-18 – How They’re Implementing Social Control – Part II w/Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-04

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VIDEO NOTIFICATION SIGN-UP: http://bit.ly/2y63PvX-Sign-Up Thank you to all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long YouTube followers. I will continue to add the following message to each video, which many have already seen to help all of those that haven’t learned of the new update. Thank you again for your support! To all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long subscribers: …

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 05-03-18 – Advancing Social Control – Part I w/Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-04

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VIDEO NOTIFICATION SIGN-UP: http://bit.ly/2y63PvX-Sign-Up Thank you to all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long YouTube followers. I will continue to add the following message to each video, which many have already seen to help all of those that haven’t learned of the new update. Thank you again for your support! To all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long subscribers: …

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Is Emmanuel Macron the EU’s most powerful politician? | The Economist

2018-05-03

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Emmanuel Macron has revolutionised French politics. Now the French president is trying to galvanise the EU and he is having significant impact on the global stage. Has he usurped Angela Merkel as the EU’s most powerful political force? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2FEY1tD Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the …

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Where next for oil prices?

2018-05-03

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2018-05-03

On 19 April, the price of a barrel of oil reached USD69.56 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and reached USD75.27 for Brent, today, the highest price since 2014. Since 9 April, oil prices have been significantly above their longterm fundamental equilibrium value. Three factors explain what has happened.

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Exploring and protecting the Antarctic | The Economist

2018-05-02

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The Antarctic is one of the least explored places on the planet. For the first time ever a marine biologist has ventured to unexplored parts of the seabed in a submarine. Her discoveries have shocked the scientific community and could pave the way for the biggest no-fishing zone in the world Click here to subscribe …

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House View, April 2018

2018-05-02

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2018-05-02

House View Equities, April 2018
Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes. While macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals still favour risk assets, challenges have been steadily increasing and a lot of good news is already priced into valuations. We sold part of our equity overweight during the early March rally.

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Transitory’s Japanese Cousin

2018-05-01

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2018-05-01

Inflation in Japan, Jan 2011 - Apr 2018
Thomas Hoenig was President of the Federal Reserve’s Kansas City branch for two decades. He left that post in 2011 to become Vice Chairman of the FDIC. Before that, Mr. Hoenig as a voting member of the FOMC in 2010 cast the lone dissenting vote in each of the eight policy meetings that year (meaning he was against QE2, too). This makes him, apparently, the hawk of all hawks.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-04-30

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2018-04-30

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note, capping off a generally softer week overall. TRY and PHP were the best performers last week, while CLP and ZAR were the worst. US core PCE, ISM manufacturing, FOMC meeting, and jobs data all pose risks to EM this week. We remain a bit defensive on risk assets in general now.

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La dette bat des records et menace l’économie mondiale

2018-04-29

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2018-04-29

Countries
L’endettement mondial, qui a atteint 164.000 milliards de dollars en 2016 et représente 225% du PIB mondial, représente un risque pour l’économie, a prévenu mercredi le FMI. L’endettement mondial atteint des records, sous l’impulsion de la Chine, au point de dépasser largement les niveaux de 2009, juste après la faillite de la banque Lehman Brothers, et de représenter un risque pour l’économie, a prévenu mercredi le FMI.

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The Science of Japanification

2018-04-28

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2018-04-28

Rational Expectations Science of Monetary Policy
The term itself gives it away. They called it quantitative easing for a specific reason. Both words mean to convey substantial concepts. The first part, quantitative, was used because it sounds deliberate, even scientific. It implies a program where great care and study was employed to come up with the exact right amount. It’s downright formulaic, where you intend that by doing X you can predictably create Y.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Interest Rates Make Their Move

2018-04-27

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2018-04-27

Economic Growth and Investment
How quickly things change in these markets. In the report two weeks ago, the markets reflected a pretty obvious slowing in the global economy. In the course of two weeks, what seemed obvious has been quickly reversed. The 10-year yield moved up a quick 20 basis points in just a week, a rise in nominal growth expectations that was mostly about inflation fears.

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Why The Last One Still Matters (IP Revisions)

2018-04-26

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2018-04-26

US Industrial Production, Jan 2006 - 2018
Beginning with its very first issue in May 1915, the Federal Reserve’s Bulletin was the place to find a growing body of statistics on US economic performance. Four years later, monthly data was being put together on the physical volumes of trade. From these, in 1922, the precursor to what we know today as Industrial Production was formed. The index and its components have changed considerably over its near century of operative history.

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Our Strange Attraction to Self-Destructive Behaviors, Choices and Incentives

2018-04-25

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2018-04-25

US Overdose Deaths, 2000 - 2016
Self-destruction isn't a bug, it's a feature of our socio-economic system. The gravitational pull of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives is scale-invariant, meaning that we can discern the strange attraction to self-destruction in the entire scale of human experience, from individuals to families to groups to entire societies.

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