Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Cycling’s speed secrets | The Economist

2018-12-18

by

In Olympic cycling the smallest of tweaks to the bike and the rider’s position can make the difference between glory and failure. Discover how marginal gains have helped Great Britain’s track cyclists repeatedly top the medal table. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Sponsored by DXC Technology. Few sports test the …

Read More »

The Relevant Word Is ‘Decline’

2018-12-18

by

2018-12-18

China Industrial Production, Nov 1998 - 2018
The English language headline for China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ press release on November 2018’s Big 3 was, National Economy Maintained Stable and Sound Momentum of Development in November. For those who, as noted yesterday, are wishing China’s economy bad news so as to lead to the supposed good news of a coordinated “stimulus” response this was itself a bad news/good news situation.

Read More »

“Yellow Vests” and the Downward Mobility of the Middle Class

2018-12-17

by

2018-12-17

Capital garners the gains, and labor's share continues eroding. That's the story of the 21st century. The middle class, virtually by definition, is not prepared for downward mobility. A systemic, semi-permanent decline in the standard of living isn't part of the implicit social contract that's been internalized by the middle class virtually everywhere:living standards are only supposed to rise.

Read More »

Sometimes Bad News Is Just Right

2018-12-16

by

2018-12-16

China Imports 2008-2018
There is some hope among those viewing bad news as good news. In China, where alarms are currently sounding the loudest, next week begins the plenary session for the State Council and its working groups. For several days, Communist authorities will weigh all the relevant factors, as they see them, and will then come up with the broad strokes for economic policy in the coming year (2019).

Read More »

Emerging market currencies: idiosyncratic risks strike back

2018-12-15

by

2018-12-15

EM Scorecard table, December 12, 2018
The environment will remain challenging for EM currencies next year.Despite a dovish shift by the Fed and the temporary truce in the US-Chinese trade dispute, the global environment remains challenging for emerging market (EM) currencies. In fact, our latestEM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks, is still unable to identify a single attractive EM currency among the...

Read More »

US Banks Haven’t Behaved Like This Since 2009

2018-12-14

by

2018-12-14

Total Credit Market Assets 1953 Q1 - 2018 Q1
If there is one thing Ben Bernanke got right, it was this. In 2009 during the worst of the worst monetary crisis in four generations, the Federal Reserve’s Chairman was asked in front of Congress if we all should be worried about zombies. Senator Bob Corker wasn’t talking about the literal undead, rather a scenario much like Japan where the financial system entered a period of sustained agony – leading to the same in the real economy, one lost...

Read More »

Fashion’s toxic threads | The Economist

2018-12-13

by

A single clothes wash can release up to 700,000 microplastic fibres, many of which end up in the ocean. Now some pioneering fashion brands are putting the materials they use under the microscope. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Supported by Woolmark For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out …

Read More »

China Going Back To 2011

2018-12-13

by

2018-12-13

China PBOC Balance Sheet and CPI, Nov 2006 - 2018
The enormous setback hadn’t yet been fully appreciated in March 2012 when China’s Premiere Wen Jiabao spoke to and on behalf of the country’s Communist governing State Council. Despite it having been four years since Bear Stearns had grabbed the whole world’s attention (for reasons the whole world wouldn’t fully comprehend, specifically as to why the whole world would need to care about the shadow “dollar” business of one US investment “bank”) the...

Read More »

‘Paris’ Technocrats Face Another Drop

2018-12-12

by

2018-12-12

Eurozone Industrial Production, Jan 2013 - Nov 2018
How quickly things change. Only a few days ago, a fuel tax in France was blamed for widespread rioting. Today, Emmanuel Macron’s government under siege threatens to break its fiscal budget. Having given up on gasoline and diesel, the French government now promises wage increases and tax cuts.

Read More »

Are We in a Recession Already?

2018-12-12

by

2018-12-12

Compensation Employees, 2000 - 2018
The value of declaring the entire nation in or out of recession is limited. Recessions are typically only visible to statisticians long after the fact, but they are often visible in real time on the ground: business volume drops, people stop buying houses and vehicles, restaurants that were jammed are suddenly sepulchral and so on. There are well-known canaries in the coal mine in terms of indicators.

Read More »

Charles Hugh Smith DEC 2018 There Is A Major Collapse on U.S, But Nobody Is Talking About It

2018-12-11

by

Thank You

Read More »

Chip wars: the other fight between China and America | The Economist

2018-12-11

by

The trade war between China and America is not just about traditional products like steel and cars. A battle for dominance is under way in semiconductor chips, as the two superpowers fight to control this vital industry. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working …

Read More »

Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try

2018-12-11

by

2018-12-11

Japan GDP, Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, Jan 2008 - Mar 2018
The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.

Read More »

Monthly Macro Monitor – December 2018 (VIDEO)

2018-12-10

by

2018-12-10

Monthly Macro Monitor December 2018
Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

Read More »

Converging Views Only Starts With Fed ‘Pause’

2018-12-08

by

2018-12-08

US Trade, SA 2014-2018
There’s no sign of inflation, markets are unsettled, and now new economic data keeps confirming that dark side. Forget each month, every day there is something else suggesting a slowdown. That much had been evident across much of the global economy, but this is now different. The US has apparently been infected, too, not that that is any surprise.

Read More »

Unexpected?

2018-12-07

by

2018-12-07

Labor Curves
Now that the slowdown is being absorbed and even talked about openly, it will require a period of heavy CYA. This part is, or at least it has been at each of the past downturns, quite easy for its practitioners. It was all so “unexpected”, you see. Nobody could have seen it coming, therefore it just showed up out of nowhere unpredictably spoiling the heretofore unbreakable, incorruptible boom everyone was talking about just last week.

Read More »

Can Macron save his presidency? | The Economist

2018-12-06

by

What began as a protest against higher taxes on diesel has turned into a revolt against France’s president, Emmanuel Macron. How he handles it will decide the rest of his presidency. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films …

Read More »

House View, December 2018

2018-12-06

by

2018-12-06

MSCI China and Emerging Markets Performance, 2018
We remain neutral on global equities overall, seeing relatively limited potential for developed market stocks in particular as earnings growth declines. We favour companies with pricing power as well as measurable growth drivers and low leverage.

Read More »

The View from the Trenches of the Alternative Media

2018-12-05

by

2018-12-05

What's scarce in a world awash in free content and nearly infinite entertainment content? After 3,701 posts (from May 2005 to the present), here are my observations of the Alternative Media from the muddy trenches. It's increasingly difficult to make a living creating content outside the corporate matrix.

Read More »

Charles Hugh Smith: Preventing The Final Fall Of Our Democratic Republic

2018-12-04

by

Full description and comments at: https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/114587/charles-hugh-smith-preventing-final-fall-our-democratic-republic There’s mounting evidence that the Age of American Exceptionalism is grinding to an end. Demographically, in the U.S. (as well as many other developed nations), the prospects of the younger generations are substantially less than those of the Baby Boomers. The same is true socioeconomically as well;...

Read More »