Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Does Anyone Not Know About The Yield Curve?

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

Economic Growth & Investment
The yield curve’s inverted! The yield curve’s inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first time since 2007. That’s the sign everyone has been waiting for, the definitive recession signal that says get out while the getting is good.

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The Benefits of a Profoundly Shattering Recession

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

SPX Everything Bubble, 2000 - 2019
Does anyone really think The Everything Bubble can just keep inflating forever? What do I mean by a profoundly shattering recession? I mean, a systemic, crushing recession that can't be reversed with central bank magic, a recession that only deepens with time. The last real recession was roughly two generations ago in 1981; younger generations have no experience of a profound recession, and perhaps older folks have forgotten the shock, angst and...

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DM Equity Allocation Model For Q3 2019

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

We recently introduced our Developed Markets (DM) Equity Allocation model. Building on the success of our EM model, this new framework extends our analysis to cover 24 DM equity markets. Our analysis is meant to assist global equity investors in assessing relative sovereign risk and optimal asset allocation across countries within the DM universe.

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WARNING!?Charles Hugh Smith: We’re seeing a general uprising against the neo-liberal elites

2019-08-24

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WARNING!?Charles Hugh Smith: We’re seeing a general uprising against the neo-liberal elites WARNING!?Charles Hugh Smith: We’re seeing a general uprising against the neo-liberal elites WARNING!?Charles Hugh Smith: We’re seeing a general uprising against the neo-liberal elites...

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Germany’s Superstimulus; Or, The Familiar (Dollar) Disorder of Bumbling Failure

2019-08-24

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2019-08-24

European Economy, 2004-2019
The Economics textbook says that when faced with a downturn, the central bank turns to easing and the central government starts borrowing and spending. This combined “stimulus” approach will fill in the troughs without shaving off the peaks; at least according to neo-Keynesian doctrine. The point is to raise what these Economists call aggregate demand.

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What does a cashless future mean? | The Economist

2019-08-23

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Many countries are going cashless at great speed. What are the advantages of ditching hard cash and what are the dangers? Read more about a cashless future here: https://econ.st/2Mwhipb Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Somewhere in the near future physical money will become like these – Relics of a different …

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Charles Hugh Smith on Advice for Millennials: Low Cost Education and Where the Jobs Are!

2019-08-23

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Charles Hugh Smith on Advice for Millennials: Low Cost Education, Affordable Housing and Where the Jobs Are! Click here for the full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2019/08/22/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-advice-for-millennials-low-cost-education-affordable-housing-and-where-the-jobs-are/

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Our Wile E. Coyote Federal Reserve

2019-08-23

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2019-08-23

Whatever the Fed chooses to do, it's already failed.. Wile E. Coyote has gotten a bad rap: in all fairness, his schemes are ingenious, if overly complicated, and it's not his fault that the Acme detonator misfires or the Road Runner doesn't respond as predicted. Every set-up to nail the Road Runner should work. That it fails and leaves him suspended over the cliff for a woefully brief second to intuit his impending doom really isn't his fault.

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Dollar Firm Ahead of Jackson Hole

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

FOMC minutes were not as dovish as many had hoped; bond and equity markets are set up for a big reset. Today sees the start of the annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole; the US reports a slew of data. Markit flash eurozone August PMI readings were reported; ECB publishes the account of its July 25 meeting.

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Brazilian real stands out in EM currency scorecard

2019-08-21

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2019-08-21

EM FX Scorecard, August 21
Prospects for emerging-market currencies look cloudy. The currencies of countries with sound external buffers and limited exposure to global trade should fare relatively better than others.In recent months, the global environment has become more challenging for EM currencies. Trade tensions have increased and are weighing on economic activity. Commodity prices have also fallen.

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That Can’t Be Good: China Unveils Another ‘Market Reform’

2019-08-20

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2019-08-20

China Internal/External, 2014-2019
The Chinese have been reforming their monetary and credit system for decades. Liberalization has been an overriding goal, seen as necessary to accompany the processes which would keep the country’s economic “miracle” on track. Or get it back on track, as the case may be. Authorities had traditionally controlled interest rates through various limits and levers.

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Hong Kong Protests: The Economist live Q&A

2019-08-19

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Protests have been raging in Hong Kong for months. Robert Guest, our foreign editor, joins Anna Bucks, the producer/director of “Hong Kong protests: what’s at stake for China” (https://econ.st/30kucKm) for a live discussion. If you want to find out more about the unfolding situation—and what might happen next—then submit your questions and we’ll try and …

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MH41 – Talking Markets with Charles Hugh Smith

2019-08-19

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Some Brief European Leftovers

2019-08-18

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2019-08-18

Europe Industrial Production, 2013-2019
Some further odds and ends of European data. Beginning with Continent-wide Industrial Production. Germany is leading the system lower, but it’s not all just Germany. And though manufacturing and trade are thought of as secondary issues in today’s services economies, the GDP estimates appear to confirm trade in goods as still an important condition and setting for all the rest.

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Market Huddle Episode 41: Harry McLovin (guest: Charles Hugh Smith)

2019-08-17

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To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/ In episode #41, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Charles Hugh Smith to the show to talk about negative interest rates and Charles explains why the past is not a guide. Then more on the hot topic: GE fraud. Fast …

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Retail Sales’ Amazon Pick Up

2019-08-17

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2019-08-17

Retail Sales, NSA 2011-2019
The rules of interpretation that apply to the payroll reports also apply to other data series like retail sales. The monthly changes tend to be noisy. Even during the best of times there might be a month way off trend. On the other end, during the worst of times there will be the stray good month. What matters is the balance continuing in each direction – more of the good vs. more of the bad.

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Does this line predict America’s next recession? | The Economist

2019-08-16

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The yield curve has predicted America’s last eight recessions. In March this year it inverted again. So what does it mean for America? Read more about how the yield curve helps predict economic growth here: https://econ.st/2N3fT98 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy This graph makes a lot of people nervous. Why? …

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US Industrial Downturn: What If Oil and Inventory Join It?

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

Industrial Production, NSA 2006-2019
Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was one nor in anticipation of one.

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Charles Hugh Smith Parallels Between The Decline of the Roman Empire and America

2019-08-15

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Here’s an excellent analysis for any history enthusiast on the comparison between the Roman empire in decline and the American empire.

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The Path Clear For More Rate Cuts, If You Like That Sort of Thing

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

U.S. Gasoline Stocks, 2012-2019
If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its estimates for the third time in four months.

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