Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Some Thoughts on Recent Foreign Exchange Intervention

2020-05-02

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2020-05-02

Dollar's YTD Performance, 2020
Dollar softness this week will take some pressure off of the foreign currencies but it’s too early to sound the all clear.  This piece focuses on how  central banks around the world may be intervening to influence their currencies.  Most of the world, particularly EM, is grappling with supporting weak currencies but a select few are dealing with stronger currencies. This is a very opaque process and so we are simply making our best guesses.

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Charles Hugh Smith on how COVID 19 will affect Jobs and the Economy

2020-05-01

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http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/05/01/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-how-covid-19-will-affect-jobs-and-the-economy/

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GDP + GFC = Fragile

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

March 15 was when it all began to come down. Not the stock market; that had been in freefall already, beset by the rolling destruction of fire sale liquidations emanating out of the repo market (collateral side first). No matter what the Federal Reserve did or announced, there was no stopping the runaway devastation.

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COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

Federal Reserve: Liabilities & Capital, 1984-2019
As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.

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How to stop plastic getting into the ocean | The Economist

2020-04-30

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Plastic pollution poses a major threat to ocean life. Meet the engineers who are using rubbish-guzzling boats to stem the flow at its source. Read more here: https://econ.st/3d0bjCe Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/

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How to stop plastic getting into the ocean | The Economist

2020-04-30

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Plastic pollution poses a major threat to ocean life. Meet the engineers who are using rubbish-guzzling boats to stem the flow at its source. Read more here: https://econ.st/3d0bjCe Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/

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Unbounded Conversations Episode 7 – Jeffrey Snider

2020-04-30

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Alhambra Investments CIO Jeffrey Snider joins Zach & Jack for the seventh installment of Unbounded Conversations to discuss shadow money and its effects on the global economy. The Unbounded Conversations video series features discussions between Unbounded Managing Partner Zach Resnick, Principals Dave Mullen-Muhr & Jack Laskey, & various guests building businesses on Bitcoin. In this series they discuss the possibilities of what...

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot. As the week commences, a few markets such as Sri Lanka and Philippines are extending their lockdown periods while others such as Nigeria and Kenya continue to experience USD liquidity issues. Please see comments below.

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All-Stars #103 Jeff Snider: The Myth of Central Bank Market Support (and liquidity)

2020-04-29

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Download chartbook: https://bit.ly/2YcW0lo Alhambra Investments YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/2yU8Lqo Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account.

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Follow-Up Question and Answer Session on Repos with Jeff Snider-April 28, 2020

2020-04-29

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FuturesTrader71 meets with Jeff Snider, head of Global Research at Alhambra Investment Partners to review follow up questions from the Repo market webinar held on April 15, 2020.

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With Superfluous Demand in Free-Fall, What’s the Upside of Re-Opening a Small Business?

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

Since superfluous demand was the core driver of most consumer spending, and that demand is in free-fall, what's the upside of re-opening? The mainstream view assumes everyone will be gripped by an absolutely rabid desire to return to their pre-pandemic frenzy of borrowing and spending and consuming, the more the better. 

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The Puppet Show Is Powerful

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

I never said it wasn’t powerful. What I continue to show is that it doesn’t work. Ben Bernanke kept his job because despite the carnage, in times of turmoil people are willing to give anyone a second chance. And if the turmoil never ends, so much the luckier – for him. 

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Covid-19: the right way to leave lockdown | The Economist

2020-04-28

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Governments are starting to ease restrictions designed to curb covid-19. But with most of the world still vulnerable to the virus, what's the right way to leave lockdown? Read more here: https://econ.st/3bMn3YU Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here:...

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Covid-19: the right way to leave lockdown | The Economist

2020-04-28

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Governments are starting to ease restrictions designed to curb covid-19. But with most of the world still vulnerable to the virus, what’s the right way to leave lockdown? Read more here: https://econ.st/3bMn3YU Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Further reading: Find The Economist’s most …

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Dollar Remains Under Pressure as Risk-on Sentiment Persists

2020-04-28

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2020-04-28

The death toll from the virus continues to trend lower in Europe and the US; the dollar remains under some pressure. The Fed announced an expansion of its Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF); regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out; other data will be reported.

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The Crash Has Only Just Begun

2020-04-28

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2020-04-28

Everything, including a rational, connected-to-reality, effective financial system, is on back-order and unlikely to ship any time soon. While the stock market euphorically front-runs the Fed and a V-shaped recovery, the reality is the crash has only just begun.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-04-27

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2020-04-27

The FOMC meets Wednesday; first look at Q1 US GDP comes out Wednesday; weekly jobless claims Thursday are expected at 3.5 mln vs. 4.427 mln last week. Italy dodged a bullet last Friday; ECB meets Thursday; eurozone reports Q1 GDP and April CPI data ahead of the ECB decision; Sweden’s Riksbank meets Tuesday.

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Jeff Snider 2: the FED’s main tool since 2008 is psychology

2020-04-26

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Jeff Snider was talking today about what the FED is capable of doing. How the FED bureaucracy works. How they buy things. When the system broke. And what the FED is actually doing. May surprise you.

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Thoughts on the Potential Market Impact of US Downgrades

2020-04-26

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2020-04-26

Our sovereign rating model suggests the US will lose its AAA/Aaa rating.  With fiscal stimulus efforts continuing with this latest $484 bln package, the case for downgrades just keep getting stronger but the timing is unclear.  How might markets react?  We look back to 2011 for some clues.

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Jeff Snider (Macro/Repo/Eurodollar NINJA!) Rebel Capitalist Show Ep. 41!

2020-04-25

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Jeff Snider reveals insights ?YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO MISS! ?This interview with Jeff Snider is absolutely packed with knowledge bombs!! Jeff and I discuss ALL TODAYS HOT TOPICS, how the unemployment rate can be deceiving and if you look at the clues in the bond market and the oil market you can get a better idea of where the stock market is headed. Jeff is truly in a league of his own and he shares an incredible amount of his wisdom and knowledge...

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