Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Stock Market Cheerleading: Why Do We Celebrate the Super-Rich Getting Richer?

2019-11-14

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2019-11-14

It's not too difficult to predict a political rebellion against the machinery of soaring wealth and income inequality. The one constant across the media-political spectrum is an unblinking focus on the stock market as a barometer of the national economy: every major media outlet from the New York Times to Fox News prominently displays stock market action, and TV news anchors' expressions reflect the media's emotional promotion of the market as the...

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Now That We’ve Incentivized Sociopaths–Guess What Happens Next

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

As long as central banks create and distribute trillions in conscience-free credit to conscience-free financiers and corporations, the incentives for sociopathy only increase. "Sociopath" is a word we now encounter regularly in the mainstream media, but what does it mean? Here is a list of 16 traits, many of which are visible in lionized corporate and political leaders and entrepreneurs.

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Is America right to fear Huawei? | The Economist

2019-11-12

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America worries that Huawei, China’s telecoms giant, spies on behalf of its government and threatens Western interests. Such concerns are not just about America’s security, but also its insecurity. Read more here: https://econ.st/2O9kgyc Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Rarely does a country go to war with a private company. But …

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Jeff Snider: “Global Growth Slowing & The U.S. Dollar Liquidity Shortage” (Hedgeye Investing Summit)

2019-11-12

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***This webcast originally aired live at the Hedgeye Investing Summit on Hedgeye.com on October 15, 2019*** Get access to Hedgeye's world-class investing research here: https://hedgeye.com/research

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For Labor And Recession, The Bad One

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs 1983-2019
There’s a couple of different ways that Unit Labor Costs can rise. Or even surge. The first is the good way, the one we all want to see because it is consistent with the idea of an economy that is actually booming. If workers have become truly scarce as macro forces sustain actual growth such that all labor market slack is absorbed, then businesses have to compete for them bidding up the price of marginal labor.

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The Real Boom Potential

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

China Exports, 1998-2019
For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today believe it was WWII which actually did the disproving.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal will be struck soon that lower existing tariffs. 

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Charles Hugh Smith: FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE – REAL ESTATE PLUNGING – GREAT DEPRESSION 2.0

2019-11-10

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Contact advertising: Would you like to place ads on my youtube channel? Skype: akira10k Email: [email protected] #Financial News #Silver News #Gold #Bix Weir #RoadToRoota #Kyle Bass #Realist News #Greg Mannarino #Rob Kirby #Reluctant Preppers #The Next Newss #Maneco64 #Mike Maloney #Gold Silver #Eric Sprott #Jim Rickards #David Morgan #Peter Schiff #Max Keiser #Robert Kiyosaki #SilverDoctors …

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Red Flags Over Labor

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Establishment Survey; Payrolls 2010-2019
Better-than-expected is the new strong. Even I’m amazed at the satisfaction being taken with October’s payroll numbers. While you never focus too much on one monthly estimate, this time it might be time to do so. But not for those other reasons. Sure, GM caused some disruption and the Census is winding down, both putting everyone on edge. The whisper numbers were low double digits, maybe even a negative headline estimate.

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A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Europe Industrial Production, 2007-2019
Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate.

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How to be an activist | The Economist

2019-11-09

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From climate strikes to Extinction Rebellion, activism is gaining momentum around the world. At The Economist’s Open Future Forum we spoke to three campaigners with different takes on how to be an activist today. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Activism today can take many different forms. Sokeel Park works with …

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Still Stuck In Between

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing, 2012-2019
There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, it was up just half a point last month from the month prior

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The Sudden Need For A Trade Deal

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

US Imports of Goods from China, NSA 1989-2019
Talk of trade deals is everywhere. Markets can’t get enough of it, even the here-to-fore pessimistic bond complex. Rates have backed up as a few whispers of BOND ROUT!!! reappear from their one-year slumber. If Trump broke the global economy, then his trade deal fixes it. There’s another way of looking at it, though. Why did the President go spoiling for trouble with China in 2018?

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From Friends to Nemeses: JO and Jay

2019-11-08

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2019-11-08

JOLTS - Job Openings, SA 2017-2019
It was one of the first major speeches of his tenure. Speaking to the Economic Club of Chicago in April 2018, newly crowned Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was full of optimism. At that time, however, optimism was being framed as some sort of bad thing. This was the height of inflation hysteria, where any sort of official upgrade to the economic condition was taken as further “hawkishness.”

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You Have To Try Really Hard Not To See It

2019-11-07

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2019-11-07

ISM Purchasing Managers Indexes, 2017-2019
In early September, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released figures for its non-manufacturing PMI that calmed nervous markets. A few weeks before anyone would start talking about repo, repo operations, and not-QE asset purchases, recession and slowdown fears were already prevalent.

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Dollar Rally Stalls as Fresh Drivers Awaited

2019-11-06

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2019-11-06

US-China relations continue to improve with news of cooperation in a major fentanyl case. Eurozone final services and composite PMIs surprised on the upside; UK Parliament will be dissolved today. Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%; Russia October CPI is expected to rise 3.8% y/y. China sold €4 bn in its first euro-denominated bond since 2004; Thailand cut rates 25 bp to 1.25%, as expected.

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The Middle Class Is Now The Muddle Class

2019-11-05

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2019-11-05

Workers share of national income, 1994-2020
The net result is the muddle class has the signifiers but not the wealth, power, capital or agency that once defined the middle class. The first use of the phrase The Muddle Class appears to be The rise of the muddle classes (Becky Pugh, telegraph.co.uk) in January 2007. The "muddle" described the complex nature of defining "the middle class," which includes education, class origins, accents, and many other financial, social and cultural...

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-04

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2019-11-04

EM should continue to benefit from the generalized improvement in the global backdrop. Trade tensions have eased whilst the risks of a hard Brexit have fallen, at least for now. Yet recent developments in some major EM countries underscores how important it is for investors to differentiate between the strong credits and the weak ones.

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More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global

2019-11-03

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2019-11-03

China GDP, 2007-2019
China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off their Keynes. A stimulus panic that turned out to be more panic than stimulus.

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The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose

2019-11-02

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2019-11-02

Case Study In Inventory, 2006-2019
What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever reasons slows down.

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