Category Archive: 5.) Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview
EM FX ended last week on a firm note, though most were still down for the week as a whole. Commodity prices stabilized, but the balance remains fragile, in our view. We remain cautious, especially with regards to the high beta currencies such as BRL, MXN, TRY, and ZAR.
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Emerging Markets: What’s Changed
MSCI announced it will include 222 China Large Cap A-shares in its Emerging Markets Index. Czech central bank is pushing out rate hike expectations. Hungary central bank eased again using unconventional measures. MSCI announced that it has launched a consultation on reclassification of Saudi Arabia from Standalone to Emerging Market status.
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
EM FX was mixed Friday to cap off a mostly lower week. Obviously, we're seeing a bit of a washout in EM after the hawkish FOMC. Market was overly complacent and very long EM going into the FOMC meeting. The big question is how deep this selloff gets. For the better part of this year, EM dips have been met with renewed buying. We remain cautious on EM and think that investors should avoid the high beta currencies like ZAR, TRY, BRL, MXN.
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed
Philippines central bank forecast a current account deficit this year, the first one in fifteen years. Kuwait refrained from matching the Fed’s 25 bp hike. The US Senate voted overwhelmingly to step up sanctions against Iran and Russia. Moody’s downgraded South Africa by a notch to Baa3 with negative outlook. South Africa plans to require that all local mines be 30% black-owned.
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
EM FX was mixed last week but in general held up well in the aftermath of Super Thursday. The global backdrop seems relatively benign right now despite the FOMC meeting this week. We still think investors have to be picky. TRY, ZAR, and BRL at current levels seem too rich given the underlying risks in all three.
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed
The Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for FY2017/18. South Korean President Moon suspended the installation of the remaining components of the THAAD missile shield. S&P cut Qatar one notch to AA-. Turkey looks likely to get caught up in yet another regional conflict. Brazil’s structural reform agenda has been delayed as President Temer remains on the ropes.
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
EM FX closed last week on a firm note as weak US jobs data supported the notion that the Fed will find it hard to tighten in H2. No major US data will be reported this week and the FOMC embargo for the June 14will be in effect. As such, there is little on the near-term horizon that might help the dollar, so it’s likely to remain on the defensive this week.
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed
The Indonesian cabinet is discussing revisions to the 2017 state budget. The Thai central bank plans to reform some FX rules. South African President Zuma survived the no confidence vote within his own ANC. Brazil’s central bank signaled a slower pace of easing ahead after it cut 100 bp again. Moody’s cut the outlook on Brazil’s Ba2 rating from stable to negative.
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview
EM FX closed last week on a mixed note, with markets struggling to find a compelling investment theme. The US jobs data this week could provide some more clarity on Fed policy. We still think markets are still underestimating political risk in the big EM countries, including Brazil (Moody’s outlook moved to negative), Mexico (election in state of Mexico), South Africa (ANC debates Zuma’s fate), and Turkey (ongoing crackdown on opposition).
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed
Moody's downgraded China's rating from Aa3 to A1 with stable outlook. Reports suggest that the PBOC has informed local banks that it is changing the way it sets the daily fix. Moody's downgraded Hong Kong’s rating to Aa2 from Aa1 with stable outlook. Philippine President Duterte declared martial law on Mindanao island. Egypt's central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 200 bp. S&P moved the outlook on Bolivia’s BB rating from stable to negative....
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
EM FX ended last week on a firm note, shrugging off political risk that consumed markets earlier in the week. With US rates remaining low, the dollar remains under pressure against the majors, and so EM FX is likely to benefit also. Yet we warn investors not to jump back into EM countries that are inherently riskier, such as Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey. We continue to favor Asia in the current environment.
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed
China’s government approved the creation of a bond link between Hong Kong and the mainland. S&P upgraded Indonesia one notch to investment grade BBB- with stable. Fitch revised the outlook on Vietnam’s BB- rating from stable to positive. Egypt will announce a package of social spending soon. Moody's changed the outlook on Poland's A2 rating from negative to stable.
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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead
EM FX ended last week on a firmer note, helped by lower US rates and softer than expected CPI and retail sales data. Stabilizing commodity prices also helped EM. Yet these supportive conditions seem unlikely to persist, and we remain defensive on EM.
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed
Moon Jae-in was elected president of South Korea. Philippine President Duterte named Nestor Espenilla as central bank governor. Nigerian President Buhari traveled to London for a follow-up to the initial medical visit earlier this year. Market expectations for 2018 inflation in Brazil rose for the first time in more than a year. Peru's central bank unexpectedly started the easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 4.0%.
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Emerging Markets Preview
EM FX got some limited traction as the week closed, helped by stabilizing commodity prices.  However, oil, copper, and iron ore have all broken important technical levels that suggest further weakness ahead.  We also think the FOMC and jobs data support our view that the next Fed hike will be in June.  This backdrop should keep EM on the defensive this week.
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed
Relations between China and North Korea appear to be worsening. The THAAD missile shield has been deployed earlier than expected in South Korea. An amendment to India’s Banking Regulation Act gives the RBI more power to address bad loans. Tensions are rising between Czech Prime Minister Sobotka and Finance Minister Babis. Brazil pension reform bill was passed 23-14 in the lower house special committee.
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview
EM FX ended last week on a mixed note. Indeed, the week and the month were also very much mixed for EM, reflecting a variety of global and country-specific drivers impacting these countries. This week’s US jobs data could bring Fed tightening back as a major driver for EM.
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed
Moody’s moved the outlook on Vietnam’s B1 rating from stable to positive. Nigeria’s central bank introduced a new FX window for portfolio investors. Moody’s moved the outlook on Romania’s Baa3 rating from positive to stable. Central Bank of Russia accelerated its easing cycle. Central Bank of Turkey delivered a hawkish surprise. Brazil’s lower house easily approved the labor reforms, but popular resistance is rising.
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
EM FX was mostly firmer last week, helped by Trump comments and softer US data. Whilst this seems positive for EM, the global backdrop remains uncertain. Some in EM (Russia, Turkey, and Korea) remain vulnerable to geopolitical concerns. In addition, idiosyncratic domestic political risks remain in play for other EM countries, such as Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey. We expect the investment climate for EM to remain challenging this week.
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