Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Great Graphic: Net Mexican Migration to the US–Not What You Might Think

2016-09-14

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2016-09-14

Net migration from Mexico 2009 to 2014
Net migration of Mexicans into the US has fallen for a decade. The surge in Mexican migration into the US followed on the heels of NAFTA. Although Trump has bounced in the polls, and some see this as negative for the peso, rising US interest rates and the slide in oil price are more important drivers.

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Thoughts on the Price Action

2016-09-14

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2016-09-14

Global interest rates are rising. Something important is happening. It appears to be dollar positive.

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FX Daily, September 13: Much Noise, Weak Signal

2016-09-13

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2016-09-13

The last ECB meeting and Dragh's hawkish comments is for us the main reason of the euro strength, this despite stronger Swiss GDP growth.

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FX Daily, September 12: Markets Off to a Wobbly Start

2016-09-12

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2016-09-12

20160912 Movers and Shakers
The EUR/CHF retreated today together with falling stock prices. When investors sell their stocks and move into cash, then the Swiss Franc very often appreciates. This is the safe haven effect: cash in Swiss Franc is perceived as more secure.

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FX Weekly Preview: Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

2016-09-11

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2016-09-11

Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week's activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week.

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Weekly Speculative Postions: CHF net long positions down from 8.2K down to 1.5K

2016-09-10

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2016-09-10

The Swiss Franc depreciated this week again. The euro rose to 1.960. One reason is the reduction in net long CHF speculative position from 8.2K to 1.6K contracts. Given the weak ISM non-manufacturing PMI, it remains unclear. why speculator now move into the dollar.

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FX Weekly Review, September 05 – September 09: Dollar Proves Resilient as Market Rates Rise

2016-09-10

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2016-09-10

It took the market a few days to overcome the shockingly poor non-manufacturing ISM (51.4 vs. 55.5). However, by the end of the week, the US dollar bulls had regained the upper end.

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FX Daily, September 9: Ahead of the Weekend

2016-09-09

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2016-09-09

The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out. On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed.Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly lower. The euro has finished lower the last three Fridays. The streak may end today. The euro has found support nearly $1.1260, and the intraday technicals favor a move higher in the US morning.

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FX Daily September 8: Draghi Says Little, Door Still Open for More

2016-09-08

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2016-09-08

In the last two days, the euro moved upwards against CHF. Given that Swiss GDP was stronger than the one in the euro zone, this is surprising. But we must recognize that Draghi could be the reason. Inflation forecasts of 1.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in the euro zone would mean the ECB hikes rates maybe in 2018 or 2019. I personally do not believe it, given that wage inflation in Italy or Spain is clearly under 1%. This is lower than Swiss wage inflation...

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FX Daily, September 07: Dollar Stabilizes, but Hardly Recovers

2016-09-07

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2016-09-07

Disappointing industrial output figures from Germany and UK are helping stabilize the US dollar after yesterday's shellacking. Investors have been fickle about the prospects for a rate hike this month, and the unexpected dramatic slide in the service spurred a downgrading of such expectations, and a flight out of the dollar. It was not simply a quest for yields, though that was part of it. Surely the yen and euro's strength is not a function of...

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Great Graphic: What Kind of Jobs is the US Creating

2016-09-07

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2016-09-07

The oft repeated generalization about the dominance of low paying jobs is not true for the last few years. This does note refute the disparity of wealth and income in the US. There is a restructuring taking place that favors educated and skilled workers.

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FX Daily, September 6: Dollar Heavy in Quiet Markets

2016-09-06

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2016-09-06

The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major and emerging market currencies. However, the losses are modest, and the greenback remains within recent ranges. The Antipodean and Scandi bloc currencies are performing best.

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Services ISM Sends Greenback Reeling

2016-09-06

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2016-09-06

ISM showed unexpected weakness in Aug non-mfg PMI. Markit measure slipped but not as much as ISM. Odds of a Sept Fed hike slip to about 15%. Watch trendline in Dollar Index near 94.45.

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FX Daily, September 5: While Americans were Celebrating Labor Day

2016-09-06

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2016-09-06

There were several developments that took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday. Most of the economic news was favorable. This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI, more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to lift wages in Japan is yielding some success and a rise in the Caixin's China's service PMI.

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FX Weekly Preview: Parsing Divergence: Focus Shifts from Fed to ECB

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

Net-net, the September Fed funds futures contract was little changed on the week. Four high-income central banks meet in the week ahead; the ECB is the only one in play. China accounted for a full three quarters of the US trade deficit in July.

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FX Weekly Review, August 29 – September 2: Disappointing Jobs Data Doesn’t Break the Buck

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

During this week the Swiss Franc index lost against both dollar and euro. The CHF index ended one percent down. Despite not convincing US jobs, the dollar index ended in positive territory.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Rising Swiss Franc Longs

2016-09-03

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2016-09-03

Speculative activity remained light in the latest CFTC reporting period ending August 30. There were no gross position adjustments that we recognize as significant; 10k contracts or more. There were only three gross adjustments by speculators of more than 4k contracts. With the higher EUR/CHF FX rate and weaker U.S. jobs date, speculators went long CHF by 8.2K contracts.

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Forex trading can be like football. You win some. You lose some.

2016-09-03

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Sometimes risking a little more, works out for you too In the US, the college football season is getting underway on Saturday. Yippee. A comment from an Attacking Currency Trend trader reminded me of conversations I have had with my son, a college football coach. The comment was about a trade that got stopped out …

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US Jobs Disappoint, Risk of Sept Hike Recedes, Dollar Falls

2016-09-03

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2016-09-03

U.S. Unemployment Rate
Underlying concerns about US labor market ease after two robust reports. Sept Fed views will not change much. Canada’s data is disappointing, BOC optimism may be challenged.

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FX Daily, September 2: US Jobs Data–Higher Anxiety, Thank You Mr. Fischer

2016-09-02

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2016-09-02

Movers and Shakers 2016 September 02
The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report. Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar. Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week. The Japanese yen is about a 0.3% lower and is off 1.7% this week. The euro was coming into today for the week.

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