Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Weekly Review, July 25 – July 29: Dollar Hobbled; Technicals Warn of More Losses

2016-07-31

by

2016-07-31

The US dollar advance was stopped in its tracks by the disappointingly weak Q2 GDP figures. The 1.2% annualized growth rate was roughly half of the pace expected. The FOMC statement earlier in the week did not leave the impression that a September hike was likely, and with the poor growth numbers, the odds were downgraded further.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Postions: Speculators Sell European Currency Futures

2016-07-30

by

2016-07-30

The euro bears added another 10.3k contracts to their gross short position, which brought it to 221.8k contracts., This is this is the largest grossshort position since early January.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-07-29

by

2016-07-29

Indonesian President Widodo shuffled his cabinet Egypt has requested a three-year $12 bln loan from the IMF Johannesburg Stock Exchange data on investment flows into South Africa was wrong Fitch downgraded South Africa’s local currency rating by one notch to BBB- with a stable outlook Fitch cut its outlook on Colombia's BBB rating from stable to negative

Read More »

Great Graphic: Relative Performance of Bank Stocks–US, Europe, and Japan

2016-07-29

by

2016-07-29

MSCI US Bank Index, MSCI European Bank Index and the Japan Topix Bank Index compared. Divergence in the health of the financial sector.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 29: Kuroda Hesitates, Yen Advances, Focus Turns to Europe and North America

2016-07-29

by

2016-07-29

Main events: Far Lower GDP Growth due to higher inflation and bigger trade deficit. Yen and Swissie advance and weaker dollar. Swiss economy remains on track based on the KOF economic barometer.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 28: Dollar Pulls Back Further Post-FOMC

2016-07-28

by

2016-07-28

After reversing lower yesterday after the FOMC statement, the US dollar has continued to move lower against the major currencies, save sterling. While the market is not fully confident of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, indicative pricing in the derivative markets suggest a UK rate cut has been fully discounted (and a new asset purchase plan may also be announced).

Read More »

Fasten Your Seat Belts: Tomorrow Promises to be Tumultuous

2016-07-28

by

2016-07-28

Japan reports on labor, consumption, inflation and industrial output before the BOJ meeting. ECB reports inflation and Q2 GDP and the results of the stress test on banks. US reports first look at Q2 GDP.

Read More »

The BOJ is about to go big

2016-07-28

by

Preview of the Bank of Japan decision for July 28, 2016. This is a highly-anticipated central bank announcement and Adam Button from ForexLive breaks down what to watch out for and how to be ready for the BOJ.

Read More »

FOMC says What it Had To, No More or Less

2016-07-27

by

2016-07-27

Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy. Added that the downside risks to the economy have diminished. Only George dissents.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 27: Yen Falls on Fiscal Stimulus, while Sterling and Aussie Can’t Sustain Upticks

2016-07-27

by

2016-07-27

Swiss Franc: The Euro kept on climbing, after yesterday's rapid rise. The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy.

Read More »

Oil and Economy Pull the Canadian Dollar Lower

2016-07-27

by

2016-07-27

The decline in oil prices is a factor weighing on the Canadian dollar. US premium over Canada is rising, and may continue as the economies diverge. The general risk appetite is supportive for the Canadian dollar.

Read More »

Great Graphic: How the US Recovery Stacks Up

2016-07-27

by

2016-07-27

The US recovery may have surpassed the 2001 recovery in Q2. Though disappointing, the recovery has been faster than average from a balance sheet crisis. Although slow, it is hard to see the secular stagnation in the data.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 26: Strange Day: Yen Soars , Swissie Falls

2016-07-27

by

2016-07-27

The Swiss Franc strangely depreciated on a day, when the other safe-haven, the yen strongly improved. The euro went up to 1.0899 by 0.54%. The reason seems to be technical.

Read More »

Fed to Stand Pat, but Statement may be More Constructive

2016-07-26

by

2016-07-26

The Fed's nervousness in June has likely largely eased on the back of better economic data and stable international climate. The Fed may reintroduce its risk assessment. Who are the possible dissents?

Read More »

Federal Reserve preview for July 27 2016

2016-07-26

by

What to expect from the July 27 Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Some trade ideas for the FOMC from Adam Button ahead of the 2 pm ET decision. What to look for from Janet Yellen and the Fed and what it will mean in the forex and stock market.

Read More »

European Banks Bad Loans and Coverage

2016-07-26

by

2016-07-26

European banks are worrisome. EBA's stress test results will be out at the end of the week. Nonperforming loans are a separate issue, but also need to be addressed.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 25: Big Week Begins Slowly

2016-07-25

by

2016-07-25

What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly. The US dollar has been largely confined to its pre-weekend ranges against most of the major currencies. Equity markets are mostly firmer following the new record highs on Wall Street. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain (0.1%), with losses in Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore offsetting gains elsewhere.

Read More »

Great Graphic: OIl Breaks Down Further

2016-07-25

by

2016-07-25

With today's losses the Sept contract has retraced 50% of this year's rally. The oil glut has partly been transformed into a gasoline glut. US rig count is rising and output has increased two weeks in a row.

Read More »

European Bank Stress Test: Preview

2016-07-25

by

2016-07-25

European bank stress test results will be released a couple hours before the US open on Friday. The focus is on Italy, but other countries' banks may also be identified as needing capital. Within the existing rules are allowances for exceptions. Everyone wants to follow the rules.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of July

2016-07-25

by

2016-07-25

A recent Reuters poll found about half of the 100 economists surveyed expect a hike in Q4, which really means December since the November meeting is too close to the national election. The other half is split between a Q3 rate hike (September) and some time in 2017. That said, two primary dealers anticipate no hike until the end of 2017.

Read More »