Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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(3.1) FX Theory: Interest Rate Parity

real interest rates euro uk czech us turkey south africa india mexico norway canda hungary japan switzerland israel korea sweden indonesia china new zealand brazil russia poland australia chile
The interest rate parity gives a mathematical explanation for the purchasing power parity and real effective interest rates

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(4) The Main FX Trading Strategies

Currency Intervention and Mean Reversion
Carry Trades, Central Bank Interventions, Fundamental Data, mean reversion, Momentum Trades, Overshooting, trend following

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(5.1) FX Theory: The Trade Surplus and the Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion

Trade and Current Account Deficit United States 1980-2012
George Dorgan explains why currencies of countries with trade surpluses must appreciate over the long-term. Thanks to these surpluses, inflation and costs of companies rise more slowly than in other countries. In Forex a mean reversion does not exist, but only an inflation-adjusted reversion to the mean: a real exchange rate mean reversion or in short the "real mean reversion."

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(5.3) FX Theory: Penn Effect and Balassa Samuelson Effect

ULC Labor Labour Costs Switzerland vs. Greece, Italy, Spain, France, Germany
George Dorgan extends the previous discussion on trade surplus countries. Now he explains the Penn and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect. He applies these principles to Germany, to Greece and to Switzerland.

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Forex technical trading (VIDEO): AUDUSD consolidation continues. Looking for a break.

2015-02-10

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Greg MIchalowski, director of client education and technical analysis at Forexlive.com, takes a look at the AUDUSD from a technical perspective. The pair has been consolidating in a narrow trading range. Traders are looking for the break and momentum on a break. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST! http://forexlive.us7.list-manage.com/… LET’S CONNECT! Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/1026488501294… Facebook ► …

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(5.5) FX Theory: Currencies of Countries with High Economic Freedom, Immigration and Savings Must Appreciate

Immigration into selected countries
Economic freedom, immigration and high savings are main drivers for strong currencies. Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, Sweden and in the future even Germany are examples. Strangely most are in Europe.

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Welcome to the new ForexLive!

2015-02-09

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Welcome to the new ForexLive! We are proud to launch our new ForexLive website. Our goal in creating this new site is to focus on speed, freshen up the look and prepare for the future with the ability to add and serve our growing customer base. We hope you like what you see. Please feel … Continue reading »

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Forex Technical Analysis (VIDEO): A technical preview of the Forex week ahead (Feb 9, 2015)

2015-02-09

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In this video, Greg Michalowski looks at the technicals that are shaping the major currency pairs for the current trading week. Included are technical looks at the following currency pairs. EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD and NZDUSD SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST! http://forexlive.us7.list-manage.com/… LET’S CONNECT! Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/1026488501294… Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ►...

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(5.6) The Holy Grail of Long-Term Currency Movements: Crowther’s Balances and Imbalances of Payments

Geoffrey Crowther
The former chief editor of "The Economist" Geoffrey Crowther published a great work on the development of balance of payments and current accounts over the long-term. It divides development into six phases, which are analogous to Shakespeare's seven phases of life. The seven stages are: Young debtor nation, Mature debtor nation, Debt repayment nation, Young creditor nation, Mature creditor nation, Credit disposition /Asset Liquidation nation and...

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A preview of the January US employment report

2015-02-05

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Adam Button and Greg MIchalowski of ForexLive.com will preview the January US Employment report and also review the technical levels in play (starting at 2 PM ET).

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Talking Forex with Adam Button and Greg Michalowski (February 4th, 2015)

2015-02-04

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Adam Button and Greg MIchalowski from ForexLive.com will share their views on the recent forex moves and what they think might happen ahead.

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(6.2) The Ultimate Carry Trade: U.S. Banks Buying Treasuries

jp morgan lending problem


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Forex technical trading: 3 currency pairs in 5 minutes. A look at the commodity pairs

2015-02-02

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In this video report, I look at the AUDUSD, USDCAD and the NZDUSD. The AUDUSD will be a focus as the RBA interest rate decision will be announced at 3:30 AM GMT/22:30 GMT. The decision to cut is a close call. USDCAD has fallen to the 100 hour MA but finding support. The NZDUSD is …

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(7) FX Theory: The Asset Market Model

Correlation Treasuries vs. Yen
The Asset Market Model implies that a currency will be in higher demand and should appreciate in value, if the flow of funds into financial market of the country such as equity and bonds markets increase.

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(8) Currency Wars: How to Push and Talk Down Your Currency?

Currency wars
Direct or indirect intervention is credible only in countries where domestic asset prices are undervalued and CPI/asset price inflation are no issues. Otherwise they create medium-term risks.

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