Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Net Speculative Positions, Global Stock Markets, Week October 22

2012-10-22

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2012-10-22

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Our big picture view is that the US dollar is carving out an important bottom, after selling off in Q3 as policy makers moved to reduce the extreme tail risks. The position adjustment that inspired among investors appears to have largely run its course.This bottoming of the dollar is …

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The Three Main Forex strategies: Trend Following, Mean Reversion and the Carry trade. Is the Carry Trade Dead ?

2012-10-15

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2012-10-15

sorry
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week October 15    Market participants have to confront a stark asymmetry.  There are many ways to lose money, but there appears to be only three ways to make money. Nearly all strategies seem to come down to some variant …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week October 8

2012-10-08

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2012-10-08

chess
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The Price of Protection We have been tracking the deterioration in the technical condition of the major foreign currencies in this weekly note for the past three weeks.  The euro’s recovery, off the support we identified here last week near $1.2800, should not overshadow the fact that the dollar’s …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week of October 1

2012-10-01

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2012-10-01

chess
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   If the third quarter was about the reduction of tail-risk by official actions, then Q4 will be about the limitations of the policy response. It will pose a challenging investment climate after what turned out to be a favorable performance in Q3. Equities generally did well. The US …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 24

2012-09-24

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2012-09-24

chess
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The days ahead will help clarify whether the US dollar’s somewhat firmer tone last week was simply corrective in nature, before a new leg lower, or the carving out of a bottom of a downtrend that began in June against most of the major currencies and July for the …

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BBH, Marc Chandler on Emerging Markets

2012-09-20

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Global Head of Currency Strategy, Marc Chandler from Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., talks about Emerging markets, attractive EM currencies and investing in EM equities. He also shares his views on the concept of currency wars. Chandler speaks with DukascopyTV journalist, Rowena Harris-Doughty on DukascopyTV.

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 17

2012-09-17

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2012-09-17

chess
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Nearly every development in recent days has been embraced by the foreign exchange market as a reason to continue to do what it has been doing since late July, and that is to sell the dollar.    The German Constitutional Court ruling, allowing the European Stability Mechanism to …

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It’s not simply QE3

2012-09-14

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2012-09-14

Fed Programs and Markets
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated … Continue reading...

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 10

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

monopoly
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions.  This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar.  China is providing new fiscal support.  The ECB announced its new Outright Market …

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What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

SNB Reserves vs. EURCHF
  On Friday there was a big movement in the EUR/CHF. First it went up to 1.2154,  fell later down to 1.2080 in the main American trading and rose again to 1.21 in the low-volume trading time. We repeat our entry from Friday, because we continuously updated the post after new developments, e.g. after the … Continue reading »

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd

2012-09-03

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2012-09-03

FM TN G3D Chess1
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …

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FX Technical Outlook, Net Speculative Positions, Global Markets, week August 27

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

risk
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   There are two main drivers behind the price action in the foreign exchange market and they will likely persist in the days ahead.  First, there continues to be position adjustment ahead of the what promises to be eventful few weeks.  Second, the release of the minutes from the August 1 …

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Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20

2012-08-19

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2012-08-19

Economist Markets by Aug15, 2012
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus.   They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions.  They can contemplate the future, but there …

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Net Speculative Positions and Outlook, week of August 13

2012-08-13

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2012-08-13

Chess 2
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week of August 13 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com   Market positioning in the week ending August 10 suggests that speculators in the futures market generally agree with our assessment that ECB President Draghi’s recent proposal was not a game changer.  The recent pattern continued.  Essentially what this entails is buying …

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Net Speculative Positions and Technical Analysis,week from August 6

2012-08-06

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2012-08-06

Three player chess
Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis, week from August6 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect. During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso.  The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss …

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Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16

2012-07-16

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2012-07-16

chess
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16 Guest Post from Marc Chandler

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Chandler Says Keep the U.S. Dollar’s Fall in Perspective: Video

2012-03-23

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Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar about the outlook for the U.S. dollar, historical market comparisons and government currency policy. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Chandler Says Dubai Debt May Make Banks More Cautious: Video

2012-03-23

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Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., talks with Bloomberg’s Lori Rothman and Mark Crumpton about Dubai World’s debt crisis. Dubais government said Nov. 25 that Dubai World, the state-controlled holding company, would seek a standstill agreement with creditors and an extension of loan maturities …

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Chandler Sees Need to Establish European Bond Market: Video

2012-03-23

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Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — Marc Chandler, New York-based global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., talks with Bloomberg’s Deirdre Bolton and Scarlet Fu about the need for European governments to establish an interconnected bond market. Chandler also discusses the lack of details in the recovery plan for Greece. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Brown Brothers’ Chandler Says Euro May Fall to $1.18: Video

2012-03-23

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May 5 (Bloomberg) — Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, talks with Bloomberg’s Susan Li about Greece’s debt crisis and its implications for other European economies and the euro. (Source: Bloomberg)

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