Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

(2.2) Purchasing Power Parity: Big Mac and Starbucks Tall Latte

big mac index
The following table compares the Big Mac and the Starbucks Tall Latte index among different countries. It explains the issues with these measurements.

Read More »

(2.3) Differences in global CPI baskets

china cpi basket
Typically poorer countries have a basket with a higher weight for food and other consumption goods, but richer states give them a smaller weight. Here the full details over different countries

Read More »

A technical look at the GBPUSD for the week starting February 23, 2015

2015-02-22

by

The GBPUSD has been in a corrective mode since bottoming in January. Last week the pair made a new corrective high but ran into a cluster of resistance that slowed the rise. Will the new trading week, break above that resistance or is the upside correction over for now? SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST! http://forexlive.us7.list-manage.com/… …

Read More »

A technical look at the USDJPY for the week starting February 23rd

2015-02-22

by

The USDJPY remains contained and non trending with defined high and low levels. These levels traders should use as clues to their trading in the week starting January 23rd. Greg Michalowski, director of technical analysis and trader education will outline his technical focused views on this currency pair and how best to trade it. SUBSCRIBE …

Read More »

(2.4) Purchasing Power Parity: Prefer Export Price Indices against PPI

performance industry


Read More »

A technical look at the EURUSD for the week starting Feb 23rd

2015-02-22

by

The EURUSD is trading in an up and down trading range. How can traders take advantage of the trading environment. Greg Michalowski of ForexLive.com gives an overview of the non trending environment and outlines how he would trade the market. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST! http://forexlive.us7.list-manage.com/… LET’S CONNECT! Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/1026488501294… Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter …...

Read More »

(2.6) CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate Since 1965: Yen Still Most Overvalued Currency

Japa Switzerland Norway New Zealand Germany Australia Singapore Italy Canada Franc UK USA United States
If we calculate Real Effective Exchange rates on the base year 1965, the Japanese yen remains the most overvalued currency. This analysis is based on the real effective exchange rate (REER) provided by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) and a consumer price-index adjusted exchange rate. The real value of the yen is around 50% higher than 1965, the same applies to the Swiss franc.

Read More »

Marc Chandler on the Negative Interest Rate Trend in Europe

2015-02-20

by

Feb 20 – Cris Sheridan welcomes Marc Chandler, author and Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. Marc discusses the reasons behind the negative interest rate trend in many European countries. http://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

Read More »

Forex technical trading (VIDEO): AUDUSD inches higher, but approaches strong resistance

2015-02-17

by

The AUDUSD was supported in trading today by minutes from the RBA meeting which were less dovish than expectations. Favorable technicals also played a part in the pairs move to the upside in trading today. Can that momentum continue into the new trading session? Greg Michalowski, director of technical analysis and trader education will outline …

Read More »

(2.7) The Most Complete Real Effective FX Rate Comparison

bruegel effective exchange
In August 2013 the Bruegel blog offered one of the best comparison of long-term real effective exchange rates (REER). The data is CPI based and therefore not as good as the producer price index (PPI) that reflects tradable goods better. However the data is huge with three different sources - BIS, World Bank, Eurostat, OECD and Bruegel. The data indicates how the real value of the currencies of China and many other Emerging Markets (EM) have...

Read More »

ForexLive: A technical look at the forex week ahead (Feb 16th, 2015)

2015-02-16

by

What does the technical picture look like for the major currency pairs for the week starting Feb 16th. Greg Michalowski of ForexLive.com shows the levels to eye in trading for the week and explains why..

Read More »

(3) Inflation, Central Banks and Interest Rates

PoBC RBA Fed BoE
In this chapter we connect three related concepts: inflation, central banks and interest rates.

Read More »

(3.1) FX Theory: Interest Rate Parity

real interest rates euro uk czech us turkey south africa india mexico norway canda hungary japan switzerland israel korea sweden indonesia china new zealand brazil russia poland australia chile
The interest rate parity gives a mathematical explanation for the purchasing power parity and real effective interest rates

Read More »

(4) The Main FX Trading Strategies

Currency Intervention and Mean Reversion
Carry Trades, Central Bank Interventions, Fundamental Data, mean reversion, Momentum Trades, Overshooting, trend following

Read More »

(5.1) FX Theory: The Trade Surplus and the Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion

Trade and Current Account Deficit United States 1980-2012
George Dorgan explains why currencies of countries with trade surpluses must appreciate over the long-term. Thanks to these surpluses, inflation and costs of companies rise more slowly than in other countries. In Forex a mean reversion does not exist, but only an inflation-adjusted reversion to the mean: a real exchange rate mean reversion or in short the "real mean reversion."

Read More »

(5.3) FX Theory: Penn Effect and Balassa Samuelson Effect

ULC Labor Labour Costs Switzerland vs. Greece, Italy, Spain, France, Germany
George Dorgan extends the previous discussion on trade surplus countries. Now he explains the Penn and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect. He applies these principles to Germany, to Greece and to Switzerland.

Read More »

Forex technical trading (VIDEO): AUDUSD consolidation continues. Looking for a break.

2015-02-10

by

Greg MIchalowski, director of client education and technical analysis at Forexlive.com, takes a look at the AUDUSD from a technical perspective. The pair has been consolidating in a narrow trading range. Traders are looking for the break and momentum on a break. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST! http://forexlive.us7.list-manage.com/… LET’S CONNECT! Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/1026488501294… Facebook ► …

Read More »