Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Euro Flirting with Near-Term Downtrend

2017-08-24

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2017-08-24

North American traders began the week by selling dollars. Euro is testing a downtrend off the year's high. DXY is testing its uptrend.

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FX Daily, August 23: Consolidation in Capital Markets Conceals Coming Turbulence

2017-08-23

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2017-08-23

A mixed US dollar will greet the North American participants today. It is softer against the euro and yen, but firmer against the dollar-bloc currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, the eastern and central European currencies are moving higher in the euro's draft.

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FX Daily, August 22: Turn Around Tuesday Sees Firmer Dollar, Rates, and Equities

2017-08-22

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2017-08-22

The US dollar has recouped most of yesterday's declines. However, as we have seen over the past couple of sessions, he North American market appears more dollar negative than Europe or Asia. The dollar's rise through the European morning has left the intraday technical indicators a bit stretched, warning that this short-term pattern continues today.

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FX Daily, August 21: Dollar Edges Higher, While Equities Trade Heavily to Start the New Week

2017-08-21

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2017-08-21

The US dollar is mostly firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The main impetus appears to be some position adjustment emanating from equities. The equity markets turned south in the second half of last week and are moving lower today. Foreign investors appeared to have sold around $100 bln of European equities in 2016 and bought around a third back this year.

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Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 15): Speculators Add to Sterling and Peso Shorts, While Cutting Euro and Canadian Dollar Longs

2017-08-21

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2017-08-21

The net speculative CHF position has fallen from -1.4K short to -1.2K contracts short (against USD). Speculators made several significant position adjustment in the CFTC reporting week ending August 15, that included an escalation of aggressive rhetoric by the US and North Korea.

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FX Weekly Preview: Transitioning to a New Phase

2017-08-21

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2017-08-21

Jackson Hole marks the end of the investors' summer and a beginning of a challenging several weeks. The abandonment of national business leaders from Trump's advisory board and strong words by Republican Senator Corker, followed by the dismissal of the controversial Bannon, could be a turning point. Neither Yellen nor Draghi may not even address the current policy stance as they discuss the topic at hand, "Fostering Dynamic Global Economy", which...

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FX Weekly Review, August 14 – August 19: CHF Recovers after Dovish Draghi Comments

2017-08-20

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2017-08-20

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 19
The euro has lost some momentum, Draghi does not want to talk about an early end of his bond buying programming. Confirmed by economic data, 1.2% core inflation compared to a long-term inflation target of 2%. Consequently the Swiss appreciated during the week.

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Markets Exaggerate, That is what They Do

2017-08-19

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2017-08-19

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FOMC minutes were not as dovish as spins suggest. ECB record was not as dovish as market response appears. Divergence is still intact.

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FX Daily, August 17: Euro Softens on Crosses, Treasuries Stabilize

2017-08-17

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2017-08-17

The US dollar had steadied after softening in the North American afternoon yesterday when the dissolution of President Trump's business councils as a series of executives stepped down.  The FOMC minutes added more fuel to the move. 

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Is the Yen or Swiss Franc a Better Funding Currency?

2017-08-17

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2017-08-17

Yen and Swiss franc are funding currencies. This goes a long way to explaining why they rally on heightened anxiety. The Swiss have lower rates than Japan and the franc is less volatile than the yen, but technicals argue for caution.

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FX Daily, August 16: Swiss Franc and Yen Improve after Dovish Draghi Comments

2017-08-16

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2017-08-16

Swiss Franc and Yen Improve after Dovish Draghi Comments, A return to the macroeconomic agenda is being deterred by new drama from Washington and reports suggesting that ECB's Draghi will not be discussing the central bank's monetary policy course at Jackson Hole confab, which will take place next week.

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FX Daily, August 15: Greenback Firms, Encouraged by Dudley and Ebbing of Tensions

2017-08-15

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2017-08-15

NY Fed President Dudley appears to have stolen any potential thunder in the July FOMC minutes that will be released tomorrow. While we put more emphasis on today's US retail sales data and the August Fed surveys, many others argued that the minutes were the key report this week.

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FX Daily, August 14: Sigh of Relief Weighs on Yen and Gold, while Lifting Equities and the Dollar

2017-08-14

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2017-08-14

The lack of new antagonisms over the weekend between the US and North Korea has prompted the markets to react accordingly. Already before the weekend, we detected some signs that at least some market participants had begun looking past the dramatic rhetoric.

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FX Weekly Preview: Synthetic FX View — Macro and Prices

2017-08-14

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2017-08-14

Economic data due out are unlikely to change macro views. Swiss franc's price action suggests some return to "normalcy" despite rhetoric remaining elevated. Sterling's 3.25 cent drop against the dollar looks over.

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What I learned about trading from the waves in Hawaii

2017-08-11

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Maui, Hawaii — Adam Button from ForexLive talks about how nature is the best teacher and what he learned about currency trading and life watching the waves in Hawaii. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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FX Daily, August 11: Geopolitical Tensions Remain Elevated into the Weekend

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

There has been no apparent attempt by either North Korea or the United States to ease the rhetorical flourishes that have made global investors nervous. Risk assets were liquidated, and the funding currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were bought back. The yen gained nearly 1.6% this week, ahead of the US session, while the Swiss franc gained 1.3%.

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FX Daily, August 10: Tensions Remain Elevated, Dollar Firms

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

It is difficult to walk back the saber-rattling rhetoric. US Secretary of State Tillerson tried to defuse the situation, which had appeared to ease nerves in North America yesterday. However, references to the modernization of US nuclear forces, a multi-year project begun last year, spurred a fresh threat by North Korea to fire four intermediate range missiles near Guam in week's time.

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FX Daily, August 09: North Korea lets EUR/CHF Collapse

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

The bellicose rhetoric from the US and North Korean officials is the main driver today. We would qualify that assessment by noting that first, the market moves are rather modest, suggesting a low-level anxiety among investors. Second, pre-existing trends have mostly been extended. Turning to Asia first, the Korea's equity market fell 1.1%. The Kospi has fallen for the past two weeks (~2.2%).

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