Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, October 13: Sterling Extends Yesterday’s Recovery; US Data Awaited

2017-10-13

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2017-10-13

The EU's leading negotiator whipsawed sterling yesterday. The net effect was to ease fears that the UK would leave the EU without the agreement Initial concerns that the negotiations had stalled sent sterling to nearly $1.3120. The willingness to discuss a two-year transition period spurred sterling's recovery. After trading on both sides of Wednesdays, it closed on its highs was a bullish technical signal and there has been follow-through buying...

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Dollar Dropped like Hot Potato After Core CPI Disappointed

2017-10-13

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2017-10-13

The dollar was bid before the US economic data. The market responded quickly upon seeing the disappointing 0.1% rise in core CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.1% increase kept the year-over-year rate at 1.7% for the fourth consecutive month. The dollar reversed lower.

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The one trading mantra I can’t stand

2017-10-12

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I love trading mantras, slogans and sayings. There is a bit of folksy, timeless wisdom for almost every forex trade but there is one trading mantra that drives me insane. It’s the kind of thing a forex trader says right before making a big mistake. It’s also the sign of a weakened mindset. LET’S CONNECT! … Continue...

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FX Daily, October 12: Discipline Argues Against Consensus Narrative

2017-10-12

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2017-10-12

Following the release of the FOMC minutes from last month's meeting, the consensus narrative that has emerged says that it was dovish because there is a growing worry the reason inflation fell is not simply due to transitory factors. This explains, according to the narrative the dollar's losses and the stock market rally.

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FX Daily, October 11: Markets Looking for a New Focus

2017-10-11

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2017-10-11

The US dollar is consolidating after retreating since reversing lower following the US jobs data at the end of last week. While the greenback has largely been confined to yesterday's ranges against the major currencies, the euro has made a marginal new high, briefly trading through the $1.1830 area noted yesterday.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 09/10/2017 – EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 10
EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD features

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2017-10-09

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2017-10-09

Over the past few weeks, the markets have come to accept the likelihood of a December Fed hike. US interest rates have adjusted. The pricing of December Fed funds futures contract is consistent with around an 80% chance of a hike. The two-year yield is trading at the upper end of what is expected to be the Fed funds target range at the end of the year, after slipping below the current range a month ago. The Dollar Index formed a bottoming pattern.

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Cool Video: Double Feature Courtesy of Bloomberg

2017-10-08

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2017-10-08

Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua gave me a most appreciated opportunity to present my dollar views on Bloomberg TV earlier today. They also let me opine about current events, like Catalonia's push for independence and May's troubled speech at the Tory Party Conference. Bloomberg made two clips of the discussion available. The first is about the dollar's outlook broadly. I suggest a combination of technical and fundamental factors point to a strong Q4...

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US Storm-Skewed Report Means Nothing about Anything

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

US interest rates and the dollar rose in response to the data. It was firm before the report. The US Dollar Index is up for a fourth consecutive week. It is the longest streak since Q1. US 10-year yields are near 2.40%, an area that has blocked stronger gains for nearly six months.

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FX Daily, October 6: Look Through the US Jobs Report

2017-10-06

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2017-10-06

Traders are putting the final touches on another strong weekly performance for the US dollar. Strong economic data, including the PMIs, auto sales, and factory orders have surprised to the market. The ADP report warns that the storms that flattered some high frequency data will likely skew today's employment report (both headline and details) to the downside. Of course, investors will quickly look for the number of people who could get to work due...

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Sterling Unwinds Most of BOE-Inspired Gains, but Rates Market Does Not

2017-10-06

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2017-10-06

Sterling has given up 50% of the gains score since late August's lows. Rate hike expectations are running high. Speculative market positioning has adjusted, and for the first time in a couple of years, speculators in the futures market are net long.

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FX Daily, October 05: Sterling and Aussie Weakness Featured in the Otherwise Becalmed FX Market

2017-10-05

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2017-10-05

The US dollar is mostly little changed as the broad consolidation that has emerged this week continues. The two powerful forces that have emerged--expectation of a Fed hike at the end of the year and European political challenges--appear to have reached a tentative equilibrium.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 02/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

2017-10-05

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2017-10-05

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 05
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD features

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Long-Term Dollar Uptrend Continues, Says Marc Chandler

2017-10-05

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Oct.05 -- Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, examines global currencies with a focus on the dollar, pound and euro. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

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Trump Influencing Fed Via Appointments, Says Chandler

2017-10-05

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Oct.05 -- Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, talks about what will drive Federal Reserve policy as President Donald Trump selects the next Fed chair. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

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Long-Term Dollar Uptrend Continues, Says Marc Chandler

2017-10-05

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Oct.05 — Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, examines global currencies with a focus on the dollar, pound and euro. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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Trump Influencing Fed Via Appointments, Says Chandler

2017-10-05

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Oct.05 — Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, talks about what will drive Federal Reserve policy as President Donald Trump selects the next Fed chair. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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FX Daily, October 04: Consolidative Tone in FX Continues

2017-10-04

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2017-10-04

The US dollar has a softer tone today, and it was that way even for the European PMI. The greenback eased further after the upside momentum faded yesterday. The heavier tone in Asia seemed spurred by a hedge fund manager's call that Minneapolis Fed President, and among the most dovish members of the FOMC, Kashkari would be the next Fed chair.

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FX Daily, October 03: Dollar Retains Firm Tone, Spanish Markets Stabilize

2017-10-03

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2017-10-03

Firm US interest rates and a strong manufacturing ISM yesterday help support the greenback, while disappointing construction PMI in the UK weighs on sterling. The euro briefly slipped below $1.17 in Asia for the first time in six weeks. It has recovered toward the highs seen in North America yesterday (~$1.1760). There are several euro option strikes that may be in play today. In the euro, between $1.1750 and $1.1775, there are nearly 2.9 bln euros...

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