Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Weekly Review May 30 to June 3: Dollar’s Rally Ends with a Bang

2016-06-05

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2016-06-05

The dollar peaked on May 30, but it was not clear until the poor US jobs report sent the greenback reeling on June 3. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. No wonder, speculators had to cover their short EUR positions.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Little Adjustment ahead of ECB and US Jobs

2016-06-04

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2016-06-04

The Swiss Franc net position was reduced from 4.0 contracts long to 0.1 thousand contracts long. Apart from the yen., other speculative position barely changed. We are keen on next week's data that should reflect the dismal US jobs report.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-06-04

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2016-06-04

Local press is reporting that RBI Governor Rajan does not want to serve another term The incoming Philippine government is signaling looser fiscal policies ahead

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FX Daily, June 3: FX Market Shocked by Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-06-04

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2016-06-04

Massive surprise in the US job report was reflected in currency rates. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. This reflects the fact that the ECB is currently considered the most dovish central bank. The dollar lost 2% against the yen, 1.6% against the euro and 1.3% vs. the Swiss franc.

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ForexLive forex trading video: A technical look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY

2016-06-03

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Non Farm Payroll and ISM were both much weaker than expectations. As a result, the dollar tumbled as the market takes out tightening expectations. Nevertheless, we must remain cognizant of risk levels and trade potential. In this video, Greg Michalowski, takes a step back and looks at the major currency pairs from a technical perspective …

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Three Political Events before the UK Referendum

2016-06-03

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2016-06-03

“Every thinking person in America is  going to vote for you Governor Stevenson,” said an enthusiastic voter. “I am afraid that won’t do.  I need a majority,” reportedly quipped Stevenson (1952 or 1956).   The UK referendum on June 23 is the most important political event of the first half of the year.  A decision to …

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Forex Technical Trading: What levels are in play as forex traders prepare for US employment

2016-06-02

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The May US employment report will be released tomorrow. So traders are setting themselves up for that key event. In preparing to trade a key event it is important to understand the key technical levels in play and more importantly WHY. Greg Michalowski will spend a few minutes each on some of the major currency …

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FX Daily, June 2: Greenback Mostly Softer Ahead of ECB and ADP

2016-06-02

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2016-06-02

The US dollar remains under pressure.  It is off for the third day against the yen and slipped below JPY109 for the first time in a little more than two weeks.  The Nikkei struggled to cope with the foreign exchange developments, lost 2.3%, the most in a month, after gapping lower.  At JPY108.50, the dollar would … Continue reading...

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Forex Trading Education: Trust in Marriage/Trust in Trading.

2016-06-02

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In this video, Greg Michalowski discusses how trust in marriage requires using tools.to help maintain that trust. In trading, we need to trust tools too. Sometimes that trust wavers. You lose your way, but often times, that trust is reestablished. It gets back in sync and the trust cycle continues.

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Can OPEC Surprise?

2016-06-01

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2016-06-01

OPEC ministers meet in Vienna tomorrow. Expectations could hardly be lower.  Attempts to agree on an output freeze were stymied by the Saudi’s insistence that is rival Iran participates as well.  Iran cannot agree to limit its production yet, or it would have sacrificed (or postponed) it nuclear program for nought.   Many observers have announced …

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FX Daily, June 1: Swiss SVME PMI strongest PMI

2016-06-01

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2016-06-01

The Swiss SVME PMI was the strongest PMI in this data release. It is driven by machinery and electronics industry. They strongly compete with the Germans, and got shocked by the end of the peg. Surprisingly they have outperformed in recent months.

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FX Daily, May 31: Sterling Slips and Aussie Pops as Investors Await Fresh Insight into Fed Trajectory

2016-06-01

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2016-06-01

The US dollar is broadly mixed.  The main narrative of increased prospects for a Fed hike in June or July has been pushed off center stage as the market reacts to local developments as investors await from US economic data.  Ostensibly the data...

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Emerging Market Preview

2016-05-30

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2016-05-30

EM ended last week on a soft note.  The icing on the cake was Yellen’s speech Friday afternoon, which confirmed the more hawkish stance seen in the FOMC minutes and other recent official comments.  We warn tha...

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FX Weekly Preview

2016-05-29

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2016-05-29

The US dollar bottomed against nearly all the major currencies on May 3.  The hawkish April FOMC minutes that began swaying opinion about the prospects for a summer rate hike were not published until two weeks later, and the confirmation by NY Fed President Dudley was not until May 19.  Nevertheless, the shift in expectations for …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Slash Yen and Aussie Longs, Net CHF nearly unchanged

2016-05-28

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2016-05-28

Speculators remain Long CHF against USD. The figure is nearly unchanged at 4.0 k CHF contracts. For CHF, both shorts and longs increased. This weeks major change was in the yen and in AUD. Speculators strongly reduced their longs.

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FX Review May23 to May28: Dollar Set to Snap Three-Month Decline

2016-05-28

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2016-05-28

Many linked sterling's outperformance (+0.8%) to a growing sense that the UK will vote to remain in the EU, despite angst reflected in the elevated cost of insurance (one-month options).  The Canadian dollar (+0.7%) was helped by oil's flirtation wit...

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First Skirmishes in Long Battle

2016-05-27

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2016-05-27

For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb.  In part, that is one of the challenges that the “One Belt One Road” addresses.  Export the spare capacity by building infrastructure, networking east and central Asia (included parts of the former …

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-05-27

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2016-05-27

Korea will extend trading hours for stock and FX markets by 30 minutes effective August 1 The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will withdraw BSI Bank’s license for breaches of money-laundering rules The US lifted a decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam The Nigerian central bank said it would allow “greater flexibility” in the FX …

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FX Daily, May 27: Dollar Firms as Traders Await Yellen

2016-05-27

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2016-05-27

The US dollar is winding down the week on a firm note, but still in a consolidative mode.  The euro and yen and Australian dollar are well within yesterday's ranges while sterling and the Canadian dollar pushing through yesterday's lows.  Asian ...

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Great Graphic: Gold and the Dollar

2016-05-27

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2016-05-27

Many investors still think about gold as if it were money.  Economists identify three functions of money: store of value, means of exchange, and a unit of account.   It can be a store of value, but the price fluctuates compared with other form...

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