Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

My articles My offer My site About me My books
Follow on:LinkedIN Twitter Seeking Alpha Amazon

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, October 04: Sterling’s Slide Continues, EUR/CHF Soars Again

2016-10-04

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-04

UK Prime Minister May's comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970.

Read More »

Cool Video: Bloomberg TV-Dollar Supercycle and Brexit

2016-10-04

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-04

Marc Chandler and Dollar and Exogenous Shocks

I reiterated my long-standing view that the euro is going to retest its record lows before the Obama Dollar Rally is over. I warn that the UK's quest to regain sovereignty is an illusion. I announce that my new book will be published in early December or early January.

Read More »

The Yen in Three Charts

2016-10-04

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-04

The dollar is taking out a several month downtrend against the yen. The correlation between the yen and the S&P 500 has broken down. The US 2-year premium over Japan has steadily risen.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 03: May’s Confirmation Sends Sterling Lower

2016-10-03

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-03

FX Performance, October 03 2016 Movers and Shakers

Sterling has a bad case of the Monday blues. Even the moon looks distraught. Prime Minister May has confirmed earlier suggestions that she will trigger Article 50 to formally begin its divorce proceedings from the EU at the end of Q1 17. Several officials have already hinted this time frame, though many have been skeptical that Article 50 would be triggered at all, given the complexities of the issues.

Read More »

Is The US Dollar Set To Soar?

2016-10-03

by Charles Hugh Smith

2016-10-03

Hating the U.S. dollar offers the same rewards as hating a dominant sports team: it feels righteous to root for the underdogs, but it's generally unwise to let that enthusiasm become the basis of one's bets. Personally, I favor the emergence of non-state reserve currencies, for example, blockchain crypto-currencies or precious-metal-backed private currencies--currencies which can't be devalued by self-serving central banks or the private elites...

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Next Week’s Two Bookends

2016-10-02

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-02

The start of next week will likely be driven by Deutsche Bank's travails and dollar funding pressures, which may or may not be related. The end of the week features the US monthly jobs report. Despite being a noisy, high frequency time series subject to significant revisions, this report like none other can drive expectations of Fed policy.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, September 26-30: Dollar vulnerable at the Start of Q4, CHF collapses at Quarter End

2016-10-02

by George Dorgan

2016-10-02

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc

The US dollar fell against most of the major currencies in Q3. The Norwegian krone was the best performer, gaining 4.4% against the greenback, followed by Aussie and Kiwi. The Swiss Franc collapsed on Friday at quarter end.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Closing their CHF Longs

2016-10-01

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-01

Marc Chandler speaks of the volatility of the CHF speculative positioning. For us this was window dressing by the SNB that wants to improve the quarterly results. Traders react to the strong market movement caused by the SNB and they close their long CHF positions. If it was really the SNB, we will see on Monday

Read More »

Renzi and the Italian Referendum: Disruption Potential Minimized

2016-10-01

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-01

Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly. It will be held on December 4. The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies. Renzi's argument is that the political reform is necessary to make Italy governable. Italy has had 63 governments since the end of WWII. In order to address the economic challenges the country faces, political...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 30: SNB Intervenes to Polish Q3 Results

2016-09-30

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-30

FX Performance, September 30 2016 Movers and Shakers

True to its recent habit, the US dollar is finishing the week on a firm note. On the month, though, the greenback has fallen against most of the majors, but sterling, the Canadian dollar, and the Swedish krona. Global equities are trading heavily, and investors' angst is lending support to bond markets.

Read More »

Divergence: Norway and Sweden

2016-09-30

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-30

Sweden has one of the weakest of the major currencies this year. Norway has one of the strongest of the major currencies this year. The key driver is divergence of monetary policy and that divergence is likely continue into next year.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 29: Dollar Quietly Bid, while Market is Skeptical of OPEC Deal

2016-09-29

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-29

FX performance, September 29 Movers and Shakers

The US dollar has firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. It remains well within its well-worn ranges, which continue to be narrow. A notable exception today is the yen's weakness. While the majors are mostly off marginally and now more than 0.3%, the yen is 0.75% lower. That puts the greenback at a six-day high (~JPY101.75) at its best.

Read More »

Quick Look at Why the September Jobs Data will Likely Be Strong

2016-09-29

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-29

There are several economic data points that suggest a healthy gain in jobs in September. College educated unemployment is 2.5% with high school graduate unemployment at 5.5%. The jobs report we expect is consistent with a Fed hike in December.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Growth in Premiums of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance

2016-09-29

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-29

Cumulative Premium Increases for Covered Workers with Family Coverage

Upward pressure on US consumer prices is stemming from two elements. Rents and medical services. Due to the differences the composition of the basket of goods and services that are used, the core personal consumption deflator, which the Fed targets, typically lags behind core CPI.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Mostly Firmer, but Going Nowhere Quickly

2016-09-28

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-28

FX Performance 2016, September 28 Movers and Shakers

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week. It is within well-worn ranges. Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments. In terms of monetary policy, both Draghi and Yellen speak today. The former is behind closed doors with a Germany parliamentary committee.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

2016-09-28

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-28

The relationship between the change in Us 10-year yields and the change in the S&P 500 has broken down. The 60-day correlation is negative for the first time since late Q2 2015. It is only the third such period of inverse correlation since the start of 2015.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 27: US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

2016-09-27

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-27

Since the monetary assessment meeting, the EUR/CHF is trending downwards. Sight deposits indicate that the SNB is intervening 0.9 bn per week. We emphasized that the preferred intervention corridor is between 1.08 and 1.0850. The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso. The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 26: Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to Begin Last Week of Q3

2016-09-26

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-26

FX Performance September 26, 2016 Movers and Shakers

The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer. The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level developments.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Nearly Five-Month Uptrend in the Dollar Index Set to be Tested

2016-09-26

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-26

DXY has been holding an uptrend since early May. It looks set to be tested near-term and technical indicators suggest it may not hold. Here are the two scenarios of penetration.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Politics to Overshadow Economics in the Week Ahead

2016-09-25

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-25

The major central banks have placed down their markers and have moved to stage left. There are the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead. The main focus for most investors will be on several political developments. The first US Presidential debate is wild card, in the sense that the outcome is unknown. In recent weeks, the polls have drawn close. In early August, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com, the gold...

Read More »