Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Marc Chandler-Does the World Have Too Much Capital?

2017-05-24

by

Marc Chandler opposes conventional understanding of international economics by suggesting the challenge modern economies face is not scarcity, but surplus.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 24: Dollar Consolidates, While Market Shrugs Off China Downgrade

2017-05-24

by

2017-05-24

After staging a modest recovery in North America yesterday afternoon, the greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges. Momentum traders, who appeared to dominate activity recently, paused. To be sure, the greenbacks upticks have been modest, and little technical damage has been inflicting on the major foreign currencies.

Read More »

Four Numbers to Watch in FX

2017-05-24

by

2017-05-24

The dollar's downside momentum faded today, but it has not shown that it has legs. Watch 96.45 in the DXY and $1.3055 in sterling. The US 2-year note yield is low, given expectations for overnight money. The US premium needs to widen.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 23: Greenback Remains Soft

2017-05-23

by

2017-05-23

The US dollar cannot get out of its own way, it seems. With a light economic schedule, there is little to offset the continued drumbeat of troubling political developments. The latest turn, as reported first in the Washington Post, that President Trump asked heads of intelligence groups to also publicly deny collusion with Russia.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 22: Dollar Pushes Back

2017-05-22

by

2017-05-22

After being shellacked last week, the US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the major currencies, but the euro and New Zealand dollar. To be sure, it is not that a new development has emerged to take investors' minds from intensifying political uncertainty in the US.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 16): Yen and Aussie Bears Push Forward, while Sterling Bears Continue to Run for Cover

2017-05-22

by

2017-05-22

swiss franc may 22
The net short CHF position has risen from 15.2 short to 21.1K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF. In the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending May 16, speculators in the futures market made three significant adjustments in the currency futures.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Nothing Like A Good US Drama

2017-05-22

by

2017-05-22

US drama distracts from the difficult and ambitious economic program. European and Japanese developments have been constructive. Bank of Canada is the only G7 central bank that meets, and it is not expected to shift from its cautious stance.

Read More »

Merkel Sends Euro Higher

2017-05-22

by

2017-05-22

Markel said the euro was too weak, so it rallied. This is not a new position for Germany. Merkel may now tack to the left since the AfD appears to have been dispatched. Look for Weidmann to begin moderating views or becoming less antagonistic.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

2017-05-21

by

2017-05-21

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, 20 May 2017
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

Read More »

Markozy, Merde, and now Meron

2017-05-20

by

2017-05-20

German Chancellor Merkel is one of the outstanding leaders of our era. She leads the world's fourth largest economy, which is still the locomotive for Europe. Recent state elections and polls leave little doubt that barring some kind of shock, she will be re-elected as Chancellor in September. It will be her fourth term.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 18: Some Respite from US Politics as Sterling Surges Through $1.30

2017-05-18

by

2017-05-18

Yesterday's dramatic response to the political maelstrom in Washington is over. The appointment of a special counsel to head up the FBI's investigation into Russia's attempt to influence the US election appears to have acted a circuit breaker of sorts. It is not sufficient to boost confidence that the Trump Administrations economic program is back the front burners, but it is sufficient to stem the time for the moment.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 17: Drama In Washington Adds To Dollar Woes

2017-05-17

by

2017-05-17

The US dollar has drifted lower against most of the major currencies as the culmination of news from Washington, escalating already rising concerns about the economic agenda that was to bolster growth with dramatic tax reform, infrastructure initiative, and re-orienting trade.

Read More »

Cool Video: Oil, US Inflation

2017-05-17

by

2017-05-17

I was on Bloomberg's Day Break with the team and guest Anne Lester from JP Morgan discussing oil and inflation. Oil prices had bounced back at the end of last week and were lifted further on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia were inclined to support extending output cuts not just until the end of the year, but through Q1 18.  

Read More »

FX Daily, May 16: Greenback and Dollar Bloc Lose Ground to Europe and Yen

2017-05-16

by

2017-05-16

Dollar selling pressure emerged at the end of last week, partly in response to disappointing US economic data. This selling pressure carried over into yesterday's activity. It appeared to have been trying to stabilize yesterday in the North American session.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 15: Softer Dollar and Yen to Start the Week

2017-05-15

by

2017-05-15

The US dollar has opened the week softer against the major currencies, except for the Japanese yen. The disappointing US inflation and retail sales data before the weekend have not been shrugged off, even though the US 10-year yield is a little higher and expectations for a Fed hike next month continue to be elevated.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 09): Significant Position Adjustment in the Currency Futures

2017-05-15

by

2017-05-15

swiss franc may 15
The net short CHF position has fallen from 17.7 short to 15,2K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF.

Read More »

Yen is the Weakest Currency in the World over the Past Month

2017-05-15

by

2017-05-15

Yen was the strongest currency in the world from mid-March to mid-April. Yen has been the weakest currency over the past month. US rates have risen relative to Japan. Japan has shifted away from QE and toward targeting interest rate.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Two Known Unknowns

2017-05-15

by

2017-05-15

The Trump Administration seems to be trying to cast the US as a revisionist power. Or perhaps it is like Roman emperors long ago trying to draw greater tribute from others. The outlook of US interest rates is critical to the outlook of the dollar.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, May 08-13: Euro rises far above 1.09 CHF, for how long?

2017-05-13

by

2017-05-13

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, May 13
The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question, given that it is driven by this political event and sustained by SNB interventions.

Read More »