Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

More from SNB’s Jordan: No comment on currency invention. We don’t rule anything out

Looks at series of models to gauge Swiss francs value; market has to live with some volatility, no comment on currency intervention.

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S&P technical analysis. Where is the stock market going?

S&P technical analysis. Where is the stock market going?

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The ECB raises by 75 basis points. How is the EURUSD reacting?.

1:32: The EURUSD remains contained with a short term bullish bias ahead of the 75 basis point hike, but there is work to do. 4:00: The USDJPY is trying to move lower but is having some trouble finding downside momentum 6:01: The GBPUSD is reacting up and down to new economic measures by PM Truss, but is back below the 100 hour MA in early trading in the US session.

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ECB: Coping with Conflict, Covid, and Climate

Overview: Heightened warnings from Japanese officials has helped the dollar steady against the yen, while the euro hugs parity ahead of the outcome of the ECB meeting, where a 75 bp hike is anticipated. Most Asian equity markets rallied in the wake of yesterday’s gains in the US.

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Unity Software (U) Stock Analysis

Unity stock between $33 and $40 seems to me as a CLASSIC area and time where an investor can be greedy when others are fearfull and start accumilating a Long position. Posted on 09 August, the time to start doing that is probably today, but do leave some additional ammunition for possible buys at some lower prices, as mentioned in the video, to average out your entry point, if the stock sells a little more.

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The USDJPY is sharply higher. The Bank of Canada rate will hike. What are the technicals saying?

The USDJPY is continuing it's trend move to the upside. Trends are fast, directional and tend to go farther than traders expect. That is what we are seeing in that pair (and JPY crosses now as well).  The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points when they announce at 10 AM today.  The EURUSD is lower but up and down. The GBPUSD got within a few pips of the pandemic low at 1.1408.

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The Yen and Yuan Continue to Weaken

While the US dollar appears to be consolidating its recent gains, the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan remain under pressure. Officials seem more concerned about the pace of the move than the level it has reached. New and large fiscal initiatives that the new UK government has floated has failed to change sentiment toward sterling, which is the second weakest major currency today after the Japanese yen.

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Trends are FAST, DIRECTIONAL and tend to go FARTHER than what traders expect

Trends are where the most money is made and lost. Most retail traders don't trade trends well. In fact they tend to lose more when the price trends. In this video, I show traders how they can recognize trends, get on the trend and stay on the trend.

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The morning Forex Report for September 6, 2022

In the morning report, I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD to kick off the trading bias defining levels.

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Aussie Sells Off After RBA Hikes 50 bp while Sterling Bounces on UK New Initiative

Overview: A GBP130 bln initiative by the new UK government to protect households from the surge in power costs helped lift sterling from 2.5-year lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered the expected 50 bp rate hike, but the prospect of smaller moves going forward saw the Australian dollar sold through yesterday’s lows.

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What Happened Monday

The US and Canada may have been on holiday on September 5, but the world waits for no one and there were several significant developments. First, Gazprom's decision to indefinitely suspend gas shipments through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced before the weekend saw the European natgas benchmark soar 23.7.

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Japanese Yen technical analysis USD vs Japanese Yen. Getting ready to short!

The U.S. is headed toward higher interest rates faster than Japan, which makes dollar-denominated assets more tempting. The Japanese yen has fallen against the dollar. Technical analysis shouldn't care. A technical analysis doesn't care about the news or why things are or should be. A 'pure' chartist knows we don't know everything. The chartist examines the price chart to find the next viable deal. She or he tries to determine whether the benefit...

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The weekend Forex Report for the week starting September 4,2022: The USD remains the king

The dollar continued to move higher last week. The US jobs report did show a modestly higher than expected NFP value, but there were other dampening details including more people entering the workforce which may take some pressure off wages.  US yields move higher out the curve as traders prepare for a tighter Fed for longer.   The US stocks fell for the 3rd week in a row led lower by the Nasdaq once again.  Russia continues to be a focus as...

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Nord Stream’s Indefinite Shutdown Keeps Dollar Bulls in Control

Over the past month, the yen and sterling have been the weakest of the major currencies, off 5.00%-5.40%. The yen is at 24-year lows, while sterling swooned nearly eight cents in less than four weeks toward the March 2020 extreme (~$1.14). The yen's weakness is more clearly a function of the divergence of policy.   The correlation with US Treasuries has been too strong and too stable to dismiss easily. Back in July, when the dollar had approached...

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Russell analysis and recap of trading ideas

A review of the recent trade ideas: S&P 500 https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-including-a-trade-idea-20220901/ Gold https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-20220831/ Ethereum https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/ehereum-technical-analysis-ethusd-at-1500-whats-next-20220828/ Natural gas...

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Do you have the FEAR OF SUCCESS when you trade?

Most traders know about the FEAR OF FAILURE, but do you know about the FEAR OF SUCCESS? In this video, Greg Michalowski describes the FEAR OF SUCCESS that stifles traders and causes them to do things they never planned on doing. What is it? How can you conquer it?

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RBA, BOC, and ECB Meetings and more in the Week Ahead

All three major central banks that meet in the coming days will hike rates. The question is by how much. The Reserve Bank of Australia makes its announcement early Tuesday, September 6. One of the challenges for policymakers and investors is that Australia reports inflation quarterly. The Q2 estimate was released on July 27. It showed prices accelerating to 6.1% year-over-year from 5.1% in Q1. The trimmed mean rose to 4.9% from 3.7%, and the...

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S&P technical analysis for the start of Sept 2022. Bear or bull market?

See full technical analysis for ES S&P Emini futures at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-including-a-trade-idea-20220901/

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What has been the reaction to the jobs report in the major currency pairs? Watch and learn

The USD moved up and down after the mixed jobs report. The expectations for a 75 basis point hike remains little changed, but the markets are a little relieved (at least not getting worse). THe US stocks are a little higher. The yields are a little lower.  The USD is a little lower.

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Can the US Employment Report be Anti-Climactic Ahead of Long North American Weekend?

Overview:  Nothing is decisive, but the recent string of data pushes the needle a little more to a soft landing for the US economy and gave the US dollar another leg up. The risk is that some of the buying drained some of the interest that may materialize after today's US jobs report. The greenback is softer against the major currencies except the Japanese yen. The dollar is extending its rally against the yen for the sixth consecutive session and...

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