Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Federal Reserve speakers coming up on Wednesday, 9 November 2022 – Williams, Barkin

2022-11-09

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2022-11-09

The talking heads at the US Federal Reserve have pivoted to talking about how high rates will go before they top out as against how quickly they will rise.

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The USDCAD made break down.The AUDUSD & NZDUSD held below some solid resistance.What next?

2022-11-08

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A technical look at the USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

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The USD has seen a little move higher vs the EUR and GBP. The USD is lower vs the JPY.

2022-11-08

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What is driving those currency pairs from a technical perspective as US voters go to the polls? It is election day in the US with the House elections and some key Senate seats up for grabs. The USD is mixed with the greenback higher vs the EUR and GBP in early NY trading, but lower vs the JPY.   What is helping to drive those three currency pairs in early NY trading? What levels are in play for trading today and going forward?

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The Dollar Edges Higher

2022-11-08

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2022-11-08

Overview: After selling off amid speculation that China’s Covid policy was going to ease, we expected the greenback to recover and consolidate ahead of Thursday’s CPI. This did not materialize yesterday, but the dollar has come back better bid today. Equity markets are mostly firmer, but nearly all the large markets, but China/Hong Kong, rising in the Asia Pacific region. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is posting small gains. It is the third session in a row...

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The USD is lower to start the trading week, piggybacking on the declines on Friday

2022-11-07

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What at the technical levels in play today In the morning forex technical report, Greg MIchalowski of Forexlive.com looks at the major currency pairs and outlines the bias and levels in play to start the trading week. ON Friday, the dollar moved helped by the technicals. That trend has continued into the trading today.   In the report today, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCAD.

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Risk Appetites Survive China Keeping Zero Covid Policy

2022-11-07

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2022-11-07

Overview: Chinese officials denied plans to end the zero-Covid policy and after a brief wobble, risk assets have traded better. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by Hong Kong and mainland stocks that trade in Hong Kong. Europe’s Stoxx 600 opened lower but recovered and is around 0.5% higher after the 1.8% gain before the weekend. US futures are firm. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 2-4 bp softer in Europe and the US. The dollar is mixed. The...

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Can the Dollar Sell Off Much More Before the CPI?

2022-11-06

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2022-11-06

The apparent hawkishness of Fed Chair Powell's comments at the press conference following the FOMC's fourth consecutive rate hike extended the dollar's recovery, which had begun in late October. 

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The Fed and jobs are behind. Inflation is ahead

2022-11-06

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In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com reviews the Fed and the US jobs report and previews the CPI data ahead. He also looks at the technicals that define the bias and the risk levels for the major currencies vs the USD. EURUSD (9:45) USDJPY (14:10) GBPUSD (15:38) USDCHF (17:00) USDCAD (18:48) AUDUSD (20:30) NZDUSD (21:46)

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The Week Ahead: How Sticky is US Inflation and How Soft is China’s?

2022-11-05

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2022-11-05

There are three potential inflection points. The first is a pause from the Fed; if nothing else, Powell signaled it was too early to think about it. The second is for the Bank of Japan to change monetary policy. Governor Kuroda has signaled that it is not time. Conventional wisdom is there will not be a change until Kuroda's term ends next April. However, we note that the surveys suggest economists and BOJ inflation forecasts for next year have...

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EURUSD moves to a new high. Tests the July swing low at 0.99515

2022-11-04

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The EURUSD is moving to a new session high and in the process is up testing one of my old favorite levels.  The 0.99515 level.  That level was the swing low back in July after the price broke below the parity level for the first time. In September the price moved down to test it, before breaking to the cycle low for the year. Last month, the pair used the level as a risk defining target as well. We are back testing it. A move above would have...

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Dollar moves lower. How did the technicals help the price action post the NFP report?

2022-11-04

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Before the US jobs report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive outlined the key levels in play. If you did not see that video, you can find it here. So how did the levels play out? The technical levels did tell the story. What was surprising was the price action.  If someone told me the data ahead, I would have the dollar moving higher, the stocks moving lower and yields move higher. That was the initial reaction, but technical levels to the USD...

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Technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD ahead of the US jobs report.

2022-11-04

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Be aware. Be prepared IN this pre-US jobs report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com outlines the key technical levels in play.  Risk is increased. The market is preparing for the next shove. - The EURUSD has retraced and moved back to a key technical area. - The USDJPY is trading between its 100/200 hour MAs and awaiting the next shove - The GBPUSD is trading above and below its 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart and within a swing area.  Find out...

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US Dollar Offered Ahead of the Employment Report

2022-11-04

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2022-11-04

Overview: Risk appetites have returned but may be tested by the US jobs report. News of progress with US auditors in China helped lift Hong Kong and Chinese equities. Most of the large bourses in the region also rose. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 1% near midday after shedding 1.3% over the past two sessions. US futures also are trading with an upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a little softer today. The 10-year US...

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Russell 2000 technical analysisL Bears just got faked out.

2022-11-04

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RTY (Russell 2000 futures) had a bear breakout down, but then an immediate reversal price action on the 4 hour timeframe, bringing the Russell back into the upward channel (redish channel) shown in the video. Due to the failed breakout, most bears thought they were in a breakout down. But this is a "fakie" or fakeout for them, as they saw price reverse on them, which expedites their need to cover the short, creating quicker pressure...

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USDCAD rotates lower toward MA support after testing the low of the upper swing area

2022-11-03

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Will the buyers buy the dip in the USDCAD? Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a technical look at the USDCAD and sets up a target level to lean against on a dip.

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The risk defining ceiling for the EURUSD. Do you want to know what it is?

2022-11-03

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The EURUSD moved below a key swing area in the 0.98056 to 0.9816 area. The break below opened the downside up more, put the sellers more in control, and defined risk for sellers.  Stay below 0.9816 keeps the sellers firmly in control. In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com, outlines the level and the risk for traders.

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FOREX QUICK: USDJPY moves off resistance and back toward MA support

2022-11-03

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IN this video Greg Michalowski from Forexlive, takes a look at the technicals driving the USDJPY pair in trading today.   On the topside, a downward sloping trend line stalled the rally. In the US session, the corrective move lower is finding some support near the 100/200 hour moving averages and the 38.2% retracement.   Levels are defined. Traders looking for the next shove.

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Fed’s Hawkishness Roils the Capital Markets

2022-11-03

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2022-11-03

Overview: The Fed delivered the expected 75 bp rate hike, and although it says it will take into account the cumulative effect of past hikes and their lagged impact, the takeaway has been a hawkish message. Risk appetites have evaporated. The dollar is stronger, while stocks and bonds have been sold. Japan’s markets were spared due to the national holiday, but the other large markets in the area were sold, lead by the 3% decline in the Hang Seng....

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VIDEO: A follow-up to the GBPJPY trade idea. Did the anticipation work?

2022-11-02

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Yesterday, Greg Michalowski of ForexLive.com looked at the GBPJPY. The hourly chart showed 6 separate tests of the 200 hour MA and support buyers leaning.  With 6 separate tests, traders who are looking for more downside in the pair, can anticipate a break below with momentum. Moreover, risk could be defined and limited on the break. There was indeed a break of the 200 hour MA in the trading day today, but the momentum stalled a short time...

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It’s FOMC Day:What technical levels are in play ahead of the rate decision? Be prepared!

2022-11-02

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A technical look at some of the major currency pairs and why for your pre-FOMC preparation. In this video Greg Michalowski of Forexlive, outlines the technical levels in play for some of the major currency pairs through the FOMC rate decision.   If you trade technically, the price action and technical tools applied to the price action, define the bias and the risk.  Knowing what levels that are in play, allow traders to game plan in case they...

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