Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, October 11: Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

2019-10-11

by

2019-10-11

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 10: Setback for the Greenback

2019-10-10

by

2019-10-10

Conflicting headlines about US-China trade whipsawed the markets in Asia, but when things settled down, perhaps, like the partial deal that has been hinted, net-net little has changed. Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei, China's indices, and HK gaining, while most of the others slipped lower. The 0.9% gain in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to lift European stocks, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is near the week's lows.

Read More »

Marc Chandler On The Currency Market

2019-10-09

by

Marc Chandler On The Currency Market

Read More »

FX Daily, October 9: Hope is Trying to Supplant Pessimism Today

2019-10-09

by

2019-10-09

Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea was closed for a national holiday. Taiwan led the losses amid a sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 7: Markets Unsettled to Start the Week

2019-10-07

by

2019-10-07

Overview: The global capital markets are uneasy as the risks that have dominated investors' concerns--trade and Brexit--remain front and center today. Expectations are low that this week's talks between the US and China will lead to a breakthrough or will be sufficient to postpone further the next round of tariff increases set for next week. 

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: China Returns, ECB Record, Fed Minutes and the Week Ahead

2019-10-07

by

2019-10-07

Many high-income countries experienced little growth but strong price pressures in the 1970s. Since the mainstream economics said the two were mutually exclusive, a new term had to be created, hence stagflation.  Fast forward almost half a century later, and mainstream economists are still having a problem deciphering the linkages between prices and economic activity, such as inflation and employment.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 4: The US Jobs Data to Close a Sobering Week

2019-10-04

by

2019-10-04

Overview: The recovery of US shares yesterday signaled today's fragile stability. Gains in Japan, Australia, and Taiwan blunted the losses elsewhere in the region, including a 1% slide in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third week. China's markets have been closed since Monday and will re-open Monday and may play some catch-up.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 3: Shades of Q4 18?

2019-10-03

by

2019-10-03

Overview:  Disappointing economic data again drove US equities lower, which in turn carried into Asia Pacific activity. Losses were recorded throughout the region, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. The Nikkei and Australia's ASX were off by 2%. After its largest losing session of the year (-2.7%) yesterday, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to trade heavily.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 2: Greenback Shows Resiliency, Stocks Don’t

2019-10-02

by

2019-10-02

Shockingly poor ISM data sent shivers through the market on Tuesday and hand the S&P 500 its biggest loss in five weeks and took the shine off the greenback. The S&P 500 reached a five-day high before reversing course and cast a pall over today's activity.  All the markets were lower in Asia Pacific, with China and India closed for holidays.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 1: Dollar Jumps to Start New Quarter

2019-10-01

by

2019-10-01

Overview: The US dollar is rising against nearly every currency today as global growth concerns deepen. Japan's Tankan Survey showed large manufacturers confidence is a six-year low. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut 25 bp as widely expected and kept the door open for more. The final EMU PMI ticked up from the flash, but it is still at a seven-year low.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 30: A Busy Week Begins Quietly

2019-09-30

by

2019-09-30

Overview: As the quarter ends, the capital markets are mixed. Equities in Asia Pacific were heavier, except in Hong Kong and Australia, while shares were mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed through the European morning. US shares are trading firmer. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are 2-3 basis points higher, though Australia's bond yield was up seven basis points.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement at the Start of Q4 19

2019-09-30

by

2019-09-30

The world's largest economy appears to have grown by about 2% in Q3 at an annualized pace, the same as in Q2, and in line with what many Fed officials understand to be trend growth.  The strength of the US labor market underpins consumption, the powerful engine of the US economy.  The latest readings of both the labor market and consumption will highlight the economic data in the week ahead. 

Read More »

Video: Why weak business investment isn’t Trump’s fault

2019-09-28

by

Central bankers worldwide are lamenting weak business investment. They think it's because of worries about global growth due to tariffs and the US-China trade war. That's not it. The reason is obvious, but it's taboo to talk about it because it's something that has done so much good in the world. LET'S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

Video: Why weak business investment isn’t Trump’s fault

2019-09-28

by

Central bankers worldwide are lamenting weak business investment. They think it’s because of worries about global growth due to tariffs and the US-China trade war. That’s not it. The reason is obvious, but it’s taboo to talk about it because it’s something that has done so much good in the world. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► …

Read More »

The pound needs a catalyst. Politics dominant everywhere

2019-09-27

by

Adam Button from ForexLive talks about the neverending drag on the pound from Brexit headlines along with what move to impeach means for the US dollar. That set the stage for Draghi to deliver a 'surprise' of open-ended QE and open-ended guidance. LET'S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

The pound needs a catalyst. Politics dominant everywhere

2019-09-27

by

Adam Button from ForexLive talks about the neverending drag on the pound from Brexit headlines along with what move to impeach means for the US dollar. That set the stage for Draghi to deliver a ‘surprise’ of open-ended QE and open-ended guidance. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

FX Daily, September 27: Markets Limp into the Weekend with the Euro Languishing at New Lows and Sterling under Pressure

2019-09-27

by

2019-09-27

Overview: Equities remain under pressures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lower today, though Chinese and Australian shares were firmer. It is the second consecutive week the benchmark has fallen. European equities are firmer, but not enough to offset the losses earlier this week and are set to snap a five-week advance.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 26: Greenback Remains Firm

2019-09-26

by

2019-09-26

Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday's disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is that it is a black box: is difficult to verify and lends itself to misuse as a catch-all explanation.  Nevertheless, the rise in US equities yesterday helped...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 25: Risk Appetite Stymied: Dollar Recovers while Stocks Slide

2019-09-25

by

2019-09-25

Overview:  Global equities and fixed income reacted to the large moves yesterday in the US when the 10-year note yield fell eight basis points, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.85%.  Investors have focused on three separate developments and two of which came from President Trump's speech at the UN.  He dismissed the likelihood of a short-term trade deal with China and was critical of the large social media platforms.

Read More »