Follow us or the Bunny gets it. No
Bunny gets it

Subscribe for newsletter


Follow us in Twitter



Gold standard and monetary metals:


Subscribe for browser push notifications

Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Daily FX, 02/11: Stocks Crater, Yen Soars

2016-02-11

by

2016-02-11

The continued sell-off in global equities is the main driver of the capital markets.  It, along with the push lower in oil prices, are pushing core bond yields sharply lower. The US 10-year yield is nearing 160 bp having begun the year above 225 bp.    The 10-year gilt yield is at a new record low … Continue reading »

Read More »

Stealing Steel: A Microcosm of Macro-Forces

2016-02-10

by

2016-02-10

There are few industries that offer a picture glass window to see numerous macroeconomic forces as steel does.   Excess capacity, trade policy, and the yuan all intersect when looking at the steel industry.   Moreover, it also shed light on why the drop of energy and other commodity prices, such as iron ore, have not …

Read More »

Listen Carefully, She’s Yellen

2016-02-10

by

2016-02-10

After another soggy Asian session, European markets have begun on a firm note, and US shares are trading broadly higher in Europe as well.  Led by the beleaguered financial shares, and healthcare, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 2%.  Similarly, the peripheral bonds, including Portugal (though not Greece) are seeing a reprieve from the … Continue...

Read More »

Why Portugal is Important Even If You have No Direct Exposure

2016-02-09

by

2016-02-09

Portugal's 10-year bond yield has risen almost 120 bp this year.  It is one of the few eurozone members that still pay to borrow two-year money.   There are two set of drivers.  One set is country specific.  These may matter only to current or prospective investors.  The other set of considerations may have broader applicability.  …

Read More »

Great Graphic: Dollar May Be Less Important for Fed

2016-02-09

by

2016-02-09

Investors and policymakers continue to wrestle with the economic impact of the dollar's rise.  The Federal Reserve has argued that the dollar's appreciation acts as a headwind on exports and dampens imported inflation.  At the same time, despite the dollar's appreciation and the fall in oil prices, core inflation rose steadily last year. Core CPI …

Read More »

Europe Stabilizes After Asia Melts

2016-02-09

by

2016-02-09

After a meltdown in Asia, the global capital markets are stabilizing in Europe.   The US S&P managed to recoup about half of its losses before the close yesterday, but this gave not comfort to Japanese investors.  The yen's strength and ongo...

Read More »

Bizarro World of Negative Interest Rates and Central Banks Pushing for Wage Increases

2016-02-08

by

2016-02-08

In many ways, the world has turned upside down.   It is not just central banks that have set policy rates below zero, but the entire German curve out through eight years have negative yields.  Japan, which has the largest debt burden relative to GDP,  has negative yields out through nine years.   The Swiss curve is …

Read More »

Germany–A Hegemonic Challenge for the Heartland

2016-02-08

by

2016-02-08

[unable to retrieve full-text content](co-authored with Matt Dabrowski) The great British geographer Halford Mackinder invented the term “geopolitics” over 100 years ago. He painted a grand vision of international relations that revolved around one f...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-02-08

by

2016-02-08

Czech Republic reported disappointing December industrial (0.7 vs 5.9% y/y consensus).  It reported a small trade surplus rather than the expected deficit.  It will report January CPI on Friday, and is expected to rise 0.5% y/y vs. 0.1% in December. ...

Read More »

Falling Stocks and Yields Drag Dollar Lower

2016-02-08

by

2016-02-08

Many markets are closed in Asia, and although Tokyo managed posted equity gain, most other markets in the region that were open fell.  And the selling pace picked up in Europe.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2.3%, led by information technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary.     It is trading at new lows … Continue...

Read More »

Easing of US Recession Fears will Likely Lend Dollar Support

2016-02-07

by

2016-02-07

With many equity markets having fallen 20% from their peaks, meeting a common definition of a bear market, investors, analysts, and journalists understandably seek a narrative that gives it meaning.  At the very start of the year, the culprit singled out was drop in Chinese shares and the yuan.  However, the yuan has stabilized as the …

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions: Big Position Adjustment for Euro, Smaller for Yen

2016-02-07

by

2016-02-07

The latest Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending February 2 that included the FOMC meeting and the BOJ's surprise cut.  There was also speculation of a potential deal between Russia and OPEC to cut output.  Speculative position adjustment in the futures market was more limited than one might have expected. Speculators cut 10.5k gross …

Read More »

Dollar Beaten Back but Cynicism is Unwarranted

2016-02-06

by

2016-02-06

From a technical perspective, the dollar's pullback has been largely corrective in nature. Leaving aside the yen, against the other major currencies, the dollar is correcting a run-up that began in mid-October.  The chief exception is sterling, which...

Read More »

Brief Thoughts on Chinese Capital Flows Ahead of the Year of the Monkey

2016-02-05

by

2016-02-05

Chinese markets will be closed next week for the Lunar New Year celebration.  However, over the weekend, China will report its January reserve figures.  The market suspects that the PBOC burnt through another $120 bln of reserves. China's reserves stood at $3.81 trillion in January 2015.  They are expected to stand near $3.21 trillion as …

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-02-05

by

2016-02-05

In the EM equity space, UAE (+6.2%), Indonesia (+4.0%), and Qatar (+1.8%) have outperformed this week, while Hong Kong (-2.0%), Czech Republic (-1.9%), and Hungary (-1.2%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -0.1% this w...

Read More »

Employment Details Better than the Headlines

2016-02-05

by

2016-02-05

The US created fewer jobs than anticipated and the December gain was revised lower.  However, the other details were favorable--better than expected.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%, a new cyclical low, despite the rise in the participation rate (62.7% from 62.6%). Average hourly earnings were stronger than expected at 2.5%.  The consensus expected …

Read More »

It is Not All About U.S. Jobs

2016-02-05

by

2016-02-05

The US nonfarm payroll report typically dominates the first Friday a new month.  In recent years, it has become among the most important economic reports globally.  Not today.   The market's focus has shifted from Chinese stocks and yuan that dominated the first week or so, then oil, and now it is heightened concern about a … Continue reading...

Read More »

Pessimistic BOE Shakes but Doesn’t Break Sterling

2016-02-04

by

2016-02-04

Sterling has neared the 50% retracement of the 11.5 cent decline since mid-December.  It is found near $1.4660.  After easing ahead of the BOE announcement, sterling was sold to $1.4530 on the initial headlines that showed the BOE was cutting its...

Read More »

Dollar Retreat Extends

2016-02-04

by

2016-02-04

The US dollar remains under broad pressure after yesterday's sharp decline.  Neither dovish comments by ECB President Draghi, nor the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have managed to reverse the gains of their respective currencies.   Similar, the rise in US yields and firm equities have failed to push the yen lower.  Investors and policymakers are …

Read More »

When Irish Eyes are Smiling

2016-02-04

by

2016-02-04

Apparently, when Irish eyes are smiling, it’s time to call an election. And that is what Prime Minister Kenny has done.  The election will be held on February 26.  The polls suggest that the governing coalition (Fine Gael and Labour) may struggle to secure a majority.   In some ways, Kenny is making the same bet … Continue reading...

Read More »