Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, March 29: Bonds and Stocks are Firm, While the Greenback Consolidates Upticks

2018-03-29

by

2018-03-29

The choppy US equity session yesterday, ultimately ending with modest losses as the tech sector remained under pressure, has been shrugged off in Asia and Europe, where modest gains have been seen. The dollar is little changed after yesterday's gains, and bonds are mostly firmer.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 28: Three Developments Shaping Month-End

2018-03-28

by

2018-03-28

Today may be the last day of full liquidity until next Tuesday, after the Easter holidays. We identify three developments that are characterizing the end of the month, quarter, and for some countries and companies, the fiscal year. Equity market sell-off, bond market rally, and the continued rise in LIBOR.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 27: Global Equities Follow US Lead, Dollar Steadies

2018-03-27

by

2018-03-27

We argued that the talk of trade war was exaggerated. The confrontation, strong demands and a climb down is the Art of the Deal, and is part of the way the Trump Administration negotiates. We see striking parallels between the policymakers and tactics with the Reagan Administration's attempt to pry open Japanese markets.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 26: Equity Meltdown Aborted, Dollar Eases

2018-03-26

by

2018-03-26

After a poor start in Asia, equities recovered. The MSCI Asia Pacific initially extended last week's losses and fell to its lowest level since February 12 before recovering to finish near its highs, 0.4% above last week's close. European markets followed suit. They did not have to take out last week's lows. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.4% in late morning turnover.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Investment Climate

2018-03-26

by

2018-03-26

The investment meme of a synchronized global upturn has been undermined by the recent string of US and European economic data. The flash March eurozone composite reading fell to 55.3, the lowest reading since January 2017. Although Q4 17 US GDP may be revised higher (toward 2.8% from 2.5%) mostly due to greater inventory accumulation, the curse of weak Q1 GDP appears to be showing its hand again, with forecasts now coming in below 2%.

Read More »

Cool Video: Let’s Not Declare Trade War Yet

2018-03-23

by

2018-03-23

Trade tensions have risen. No doubt about it, but to consider this a trade war is premature. We should not pretend that this is the first time that the US adopted protectionist measures that ensnarled are military allies. We have been to this dance before.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Fed and More

2018-03-19

by

2018-03-19

The most significant event in the coming week is the first FOMC meeting under the Chair Powell. At ECB President Draghi’s first meeting he cut interest rates. He cuts rates at his second meeting as well, underwinding the two hikes the ECB approved under Trichet. At BOJ Governor Kuroda’s first meeting, an aggressive monetary policy was announced that was notable not only in its size, but also in the range of assets to be purchased under the...

Read More »

Great Graphic: Potential Topping Pattern for Euro

2018-03-14

by

2018-03-14

EUR/BGN Currency Oct 2017 - Apr 2018
The euro appears to be potentially carving out a topping pattern. Recall that after correcting lower last September and October, the euro rallied for three months through January before weakening 1.75% in February. That was its biggest decline since February 2017. The euro's high print was actually on February 16 near $1.2555, when it posted a key reversal, which is when it makes a new high for the move and then closes below the previous day's low.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 13: Non-Economic Developments Dominate Ahead of US CPI

2018-03-13

by

2018-03-13

Many see the eruption of the scandal that threatens senior government officials as yen positive because it weakens those that ostensibly want to depreciate the yen through monetary policy. The scandal involves falsifying documents to conceal a sweetheart deal. The government sold of state-owned land to a school-operator, reportedly with connections to Prime Minister Abe's wife at an incredibly low price.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Another Goldilocks Moment

2018-03-12

by

2018-03-12

Spring is around the corner in the Northern Hemisphere, and with it, a sense of a Goldilocks moment. Growth is sufficiently strong to see employment grow and absorb the economic slack. In the US, the participation rate of the key 25-54 aged demographic group has risen and now stands at 89.3%, the highest since 2010.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 09: Today is about Jobs, but Not Really

2018-03-09

by

2018-03-09

The US Administration has softened its initial hardline position of no exemptions for the new steel and aluminum tariffs. There is little doubt that the actions will be challenged at the World Trade Organization and the idea that national security includes the protection of jobs for trade purposes will be tested. At the same time, US President Trump has agreed to meet North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 07: Renewed Threat of Trade War Makes Investors Angry

2018-03-07

by

2018-03-07

In response to the resignation of one of the few "globalist" advisers in the US Administration, the resignation Cohn has sent ripples through the capital markets. Stocks have been marked down across the world. The prospects of a trade war are also not good for growth and it may be adding to the pressure on yields.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 06: Resiliency Demonstrated

2018-03-06

by

2018-03-06

The resiliency of the status quo is again on display. After much chin wagging and finger pointing after the Italian elections and the modest decline in Italian assets, they have bounced back today. Italian bonds and stocks are participating in today's advance. Italian equities were off 0.5% yesterday and are up a 1.1% near midday in Milan. Italy's 10-year yield rose three basis points yesterday is off five today.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Is the Canadian Dollar a Buy Soon against the Mexican Peso?

2018-03-06

by

2018-03-06

This Great Graphic composed on Bloomberg shows the Canadian dollar against the Mexican peso since the start of last year. There have been three big moves. The Canadian dollar trended lower against the peso as it corrected from the sharp sell-off induced in great measure to the candidate Trump's rhetoric against Mexico. However, shortly before the inauguration, the peso began recovering continued through H1 17.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 05: Italian Election Weighs on Italian Assets, but Little Systemic Risk Seen

2018-03-05

by

2018-03-05

The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The Japanese yen remains firm. The dollar appears stuck in a narrow range. Near JPY105.20 the seems to be some short-covering pressure in front of JPY105. On the top side, the greenback is encountering offers in front of JPY105.80. Sterling is firm against the dollar as it recovers against the euro. Before the weekend, the euro reached GBP0.8950, its best levels since last November. The euro is testing GBP0.8900...

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch Four Central Bank Meetings and US Jobs Data

2018-03-05

by

2018-03-05

The German Social Democrats have endorsed the Grand Coalition, ending the period of political uncertainty and paralysis in Germany since the last September's election. The polls have suggested nearly 60% of the SPD would support joining the government and the actual outcome looks to be closer to 66%. In 2013, when the SPD had a similar vote, three-quarters favored a Grand Coalition. Among the differences is that the SPD public support has waned,...

Read More »

FX Daily, March 02: Markets Unanchored?

2018-03-02

by

2018-03-02

The announcement of the US intention to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on national security grounds has sent ripples through the capital markets. Yet there is certainly more going on here than that. The tariffs, justification, and magnitude have indicated and expected. After reversing lower on Tuesday and selling off on Wednesday, equity investors hardly needed a fresh reason to sell on Thursday.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 01: USD Snaps 3-Month Slide, Firm Ahead of Powell Part II

2018-03-01

by

2018-03-01

The US dollar rebounded last September and October before the downtrend resumed in November, and lasted through January. The dollar gained broadly last month, except against the yen, which rose almost 2.4% in February. This pattern is evident today, the first trading day of March. The dollar is extending its gains against most currencies but is only managing to consolidate in a narrow range against the yen.

Read More »