Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, February 19: Monday Market Update

2018-02-19

by

2018-02-19

The US dollar is narrowly mixed in uneventful turnover. Of note, the dollar selling seen in Asia last week slacken today and the greenback moved above the pre-weekend highs seen in the US. It is the first time in eight sessions, the dollar has risen above the previous day’s high against the yen. Europe seems to be losing interest though, with the dollar near JPY106.60.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Four Key Numbers in the Week Ahead

2018-02-19

by

2018-02-19

The US markets are closed on Monday, and many parts of Asia will continue to celebrate the Lunar New Year. The economic schedule is fairly light, and market psychology appears fragile after the dramatic activity in equities and what appears to be shifting macro-relationships. To help navigate the challenging investment climate, we identify four "numbers" that can illuminate the path ahead.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 16: Worst Week for the Dollar since 2015-2016, While Stocks Continue to Recover

2018-02-16

by

2018-02-16

Nearly all the major currencies have risen at least two percent against the US dollar this week. The Canadian dollar is an exception. It has risen one percent this week ahead of today's local session. Sterling is becoming another exception after disappointing retail sales. It is up just shy of two percent. The Dollar Index is off 2.3% on the week, which would be the biggest weekly loss since 2015.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Bears Very Short US 10-Year Ahead of CPI

2018-02-16

by

2018-02-16

The US reports January CPI figures tomorrow. The market seems especially sensitive to it. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings that pushed yields higher and unhinged the stock market. This Great Graphic comes from Bloomberg and is derived from data issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Read More »

FX Daily, February 15: Stocks Jump, Bonds Dump, and the Dollar Slumps

2018-02-15

by

2018-02-15

The significant development this week has been the recovery of equities after last week's neck-breaking drop, while yields have continued to rise. The dollar has taken is cues from the risk-on impulse from the equity market and the sales of US bonds more than the resulting higher yields. Asia followed US equities higher.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 14: Investors Remain Uneasy even as Equities Stabilize

2018-02-14

by

2018-02-14

There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is hard to imagine the kind of body blow that the equities took last week without some kind of follow through and knock-on effects. Moreover, the focus today on US CPI may prove for nought.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

2018-02-14

by

2018-02-14

The relationship between stocks and bonds does not appear to have changed much. It is difficult to eyeball correlations. Question the meaning of a chart that has two time series and two scales and.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 13: Tuesday’s Two Developments

2018-02-13

by

2018-02-13

There are two important developments today. First, the recovery in the global equity markets is being challenged. Second, the yen has strengthened across the board, and is now at its best levels against the dollar since last September's low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended Monday's recovery with another 0.5% gain. However, looking closer, the momentum faltered.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 12: Equity Markets Find Firmer Footing, Dollar Softens

2018-02-12

by

2018-02-12

The most important development today has been the stability in the equity markets after last week's meltdown. The recovery from new lows in the US before the weekend set the tone for today's moves. Tokyo markets were on holiday, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan snapped a seven-day slide with a nearly 0.6% gain.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Recovering from Too Much of a Good Thing?

2018-02-12

by

2018-02-12

Too much of a good thing is bad. That, in a nutshell, is an important insight that Hyman Minsky offered about the financial sector, but has broader application. The low volatility that has been a characteristic of the capital markets for the past few years spurred financial innovation to profit from it.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 09: Equity Sell-Off Extends to Asia, but More Muted in Europe

2018-02-09

by

2018-02-09

The 100-point slide in the S&P 500 and the 1000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials yesterday spurred more bloodletting in Asia. The 1.8% drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (for a 6.7% loss for the week) may conceal the magnitude of the regional losses. At one point the CSI 300 of the large Chinese mainland shares was off more than 6% before closing off 4.3% (and 10% for the week). The H-shares index was down 3.9% and 12% for the week.

Read More »

Great Graphic: FX Vol Elevated, but Still Modest

2018-02-09

by

2018-02-09

With the substantial swings in the volatility of equities that have captured the imagination of journalists and punished investors who bought financial derivatives that profited from the low vol environment, we thought it would be helped to look at the implied volatility of the leading currencies against the US dollar. The Great Graphic looks at the three-month implied volatility for the euro (white line), the yen (yellow line), and sterling (green...

Read More »

Great Graphic: Major Currencies Year-to-Date

2018-02-08

by

2018-02-08

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It shows five major currencies against the US dollar this year. To avoid giving a misleading impression, the currencies are index to start this year at 100 and all the currencies are quoted in the European style of how many dollars the currency purchases. These kinds of charts are not so much for trading, but they help illustrate the relative moves that can be masked by nominal price changes.

Read More »

Chandler Says Yield Curve Is One of the Best Predictors of the Economy

2018-02-07

by

Feb.07 -- Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, discusses the bond market and which yield curve he focuses on. He speaks with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Read More »

FX Daily, February 07: Guns and Butter May Resolve US Legislative Logjam

2018-02-07

by

2018-02-07

After a volatile session in North America, the major equity indices closed higher. In fact, the 1.75% rise in the S&P 500 was the best since November 2016. Asian equities stabilized, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was able to eke out a small gain. The European markets are moving higher is also posting early gains and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.45%, which threatens to snap the seven-day slide. However, the main challenge now is that the S&P...

Read More »

Marc Chandler Says BOE Is Comfortable on Hold

2018-02-07

by

Feb.07 -- Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, discusses the upcoming Bank of England rate decision. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Read More »

Cool Video: Bloomberg Double Feature–BOE Meeting and the Yield Curve

2018-02-07

by

2018-02-07

Chandler
The Bank of England meets tomorrow. Although no one expects a move, it has little to do with the recent market volatility. The FTSE 100 is poised to snap a six-day 7%+ slide. The FTSE 250 fell for seven consecutive sessions through yesterday, shedding 5.75% in the process. The UK's 2-year yield slipped about seven basis points from last week's close to58 bp before recovering to 63 bp today, around the middle of this week's range.

Read More »

US Trade Balance is Deteriorating, Despite Record Exports

2018-02-07

by

2018-02-07

The US trade deficit swelled in December, and the $53.1 bln shortfall was a bit larger than expected. It was the largest deficit since October 2008. For the 2017, the US recorded a trade deficit of goods and services of $566 bln, the largest since 2008. The deterioration of the trade balance may be worse than it appears. There has been significant improvement in the oil trade balance. In 2017, the real petroleum balance was just shy of $96 bln, the...

Read More »

Chandler Says Yield Curve Is One of the Best Predictors of the Economy

2018-02-07

by

Feb.07 — Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, discusses the bond market and which yield curve he focuses on. He speaks with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Read More »