Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, November 30: Renewed OPEC Hopes and Month End Featured

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

FX Performance, November 30 2016 Movers and Shakers
Rates for buying Swiss Francs dollars remain incredibly subdued post Brexit but there has been a general improvement over the last month. Rates for the moment appear to have found support over 1.24 for GBP CHF and this has largely come about following the Trump US presidential election victory. Despite a leaked government document titled Have cake and eat it, the markets and sterling were largely unphased.

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Bernanke Suggests How to Use the Dot Plots

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

Bernanke
The dot plots are not FOMC commitments or an aggregate view of the FOMC. They are a collection of individual economic forecasts based on the most likely scenario and their view of appropriate policy. The SEP is useful for understanding how Fed officials view the long-term economic parameters, which appears to explain the downward shift in the long-term equilibrium rate for Fed funds.

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Some Thoughts on Q3 US GDP

2016-11-30

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2016-11-30

monkey-thinking
US Q3 was revised higher mostly due to consumption. Business investment was a drag. Profits rose to snap a five-quarter slide.

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FX Daily, November 29: Dollar Comes Back Mostly Firmer, but Focus is Elsewhere

2016-11-29

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2016-11-29

FX Performance, November 29 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar correctly lowered yesterday, but most of the selling was over by the end of the Asian session, and the greenback steadied in Europe and North America. The dollar is firm against the euro and yen but within yesterday's broad trading ranges. The Australian and Canadian dollar's gains from yesterday are being pared.

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Great Graphic: Yen and Yuan Connection

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

The US dollar has rallied against both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan since the end of September. Through today, the yen has fallen 9.8% and the yuan has fallen by 3.5%. What they have in common is the rise in US interest rates relative to their own. Since September 30, the US 10-year yield has from below 1.60% to above 2.40% at the end of last week. Japan's 10-year yield has risen from minus nine basis points at the end of September to five...

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FX Daily, November 28: Corrective Forces Seen in Asia, Subside in Europe

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

FX Performance, November 28 2016 Movers and Shakers
As soon as markets opened in Asia, the greenback was sold, and corrective forces that had been nipping below the surface took hold. The euro, which had finished last week below $1.0590, rallied nearly a cent. Before the weekend, the greenback had pushed to almost JPY114, an eight-month high, before closed near JPY113.20. It was sold to almost JPY111.35 in early Asia. Sterling extended last week's gains and briefly poked through $1.2530, to reach...

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FX Weekly Preview: Shifting Portfolio Preferences Continue to Drive Capital Markets

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Forces emanating from the US and Europe are driving the capital markets. The moves may be stretched technically, but the market adjustment has further to run as not even two Fed hikes are discounted for next year. European political concerns and an ECB expected to continue its asset purchases have driven German 2-year yields to new record lows.

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FX Daily, November 25: Corrective Forces Emerge, but Underlying Trend is Evident

2016-11-25

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2016-11-25

FX Performance, November 25 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar's recent gains are being trimmed today, and it is down against all the major currencies. Many emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira, Indian rupee, and Hungarian forint are firmer today.

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Short Summary on US Thanksgiving

2016-11-25

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2016-11-25

Turkey
Euro fell to new 20-month lows before steadying. The dollar extended its recovery against the yen. Emerging markets remained under pressure, and Turkey's central bank surprised with a 50 bp hike in the repo rate.

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FX Daily, November 23: Dollar Sees Flat Consolidation while the Equity Advance Fizzles in Europe

2016-11-23

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2016-11-23

FX Performance, November 23 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is trading inside yesterday's ranges against the euro and yen. The dollar's tone matches the consolidation in the debt market ahead of today's slew of US data and tomorrow's holiday. Tokyo markets were on holiday.

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FX Daily, November 22: Bonds and Stocks Rally, Leaving Greenback to Meander

2016-11-22

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2016-11-22

FX Performance, November 22 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar entered a consolidative phase yesterday, and this carried into today's activity.While the foreign exchange market is sidelined as the two-week trend slows, the stocks and bonds are posting strong gains today. Equities are being led by energy and materials, as oil and industrial metals continue to advance. Bond are recovering from their recent slide.

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FX Daily, November 21: Flattish Consolidation Hides Dollar Strength

2016-11-21

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2016-11-21

FX Performance, November 21 2016 Movers and Shakers
The news over the weekend is primarily political in nature. Sarkozy is going to retire (again) after taking a drubbing in the Republican Party primary in France. Fillon, the self-styled French Thatcher unexpected beat Juppe, but without 50% and therefore the results set up the run-off this coming weekend. It is as if, knowing their candidate will likely face Le Pen in the final round next spring, the Republican Party might as well chose the most...

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FX Weekly Preview: Shifting Paradigms and the Market Adjustment

2016-11-21

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2016-11-21

Perceptions of two trends shape the investment climate: reflation and nationalism. Fed rate hike set for next month, barring significant surprise. Japan's trade surplus is growing even as imports and exports continue to contract.

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The Italian Job

2016-11-20

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2016-11-20

Four Seasons
Italy is the epicenter of the next potential populist "shock." A defeat of the referendum is seen as intensifying the political risk. Renzi has wavered again regarding his political future if the referendum loses.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Dramatic Spot Currency Moves not Reflected

2016-11-20

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2016-11-20

What is most noticeable about the CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the reporting week ending November 15 is what is not there: Activity.  With the Australian dollar being the sole exception, we are struck by the apparent fact that dramatic spot price action and a what seemed like an impulsive trend move seemed not to be reflected in the futures position adjustments by speculators.   Given the strength of the US dollar after the election,...

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If TPP is Dead…

2016-11-20

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2016-11-20

Tpp
TPP may be dead, but China is spearheading an alternative regional free trade deal. It is not as ambitious as the US-led TPP. China and Russia are eager to re-establish spheres of influence.

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FX Daily, November 17: Consolidation Gives Dollar Heavier Tone

2016-11-17

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2016-11-17

FX Performance, November 17 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias today as its recent run is consolidated. The euro is trying to snap the eight-day slide that brought it to nearly $1.0665 yesterday, the lows for the year. It is almost as if participant saw the proximity of last year's lows ($1.0460-$1.0525) and decided to pause, perhaps to wait for additional developments, such a Fed Chief's Yellen's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

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FX Daily, November 16: The Greenback Remains Resilient

2016-11-16

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2016-11-16

FX Performance, November 16 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar remains bid. It is at its year high against the euro and five-month highs against the Japanese yen. Sterling, which has performed better recently, remains in the trough around 30-year lows. It surge since the election reflects three considerations. The first is December Fed hike. Prior to the election, the market was assessing around a two-thirds chance. Now both the CME and Bloomberg's WIRP estimate the odds above 90%....

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FX Daily, November 15: Investors Catch Breath, Markets Consolidate

2016-11-15

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2016-11-15

FX Performance, November 15 2016 Movers and Shakers
After a dramatic run since the US election, the capital markets are consolidating today. It is a bit too restrained to such a Turn Around Tuesday is unfolding. The euro is struggling to sustain corrective upticks through $1.08, and after a pullback is, the greenback pushed back above the JPY108 level like a beach ball held under water.

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