Welsh gold and the misconceptions surrounding it – GoldCore speak to China Central Television (CCTV). Welsh gold mired in misconceptions, namely that it is ‘rarest’ and most ‘sought after’ gold in world. Investors to be reminded that all mined gold is rare and homogenous. Nothing chemically different between Welsh gold and that mined elsewhere. Investors led to believe Welsh gold is more valuable, despite lack of authenticity in some Welsh gold products.

Gold Price Gains Due To Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates. Investors should not be put off by higher interest rates, World Gold Council research finds they do not always have a negative impact on gold. Only short-term movements in gold are ‘heavily influenced by US interest rates’. Correlation between US interest rates and gold is waning, with US dollar a better indicator of short-term gold price. New findings will reassure gold investors that there is no single driver of the gold price including interest rates and the myth of the “all powerful” central bank.

London house prices fell by 3.2% in the first quarter – Halifax. Brexit, financial and geo-political uncertainty lead to falls. Excluding sale of seven £10m-plus houses in London, prices were down 3.4% in the year. UK house prices climb by just 0.4% in April, the slowest increase since 2008 for same period. Sales transactions fall by 19% and asking versus selling prices show turning into buyers’ market. Homeowner or not, buy physical gold to hedge falls in physical property.

Silver bullion remains good value on positive supply and demand factors. Industrial demand set to continue to climb from 2017, into 2018 and beyond. Speculators are bearish on silver as net short positions in silver futures reach record. Investment demand sees silver ETF holdings at eight-month high of 665.4 million ozs. 2017 saw fifth consecutive annual physical deficit in scrap silver, of 26 moz. Global silver mine production fell 4% last year, 2nd consecutive year of decline.

Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees ‘chance of market panic’. In annual letter to shareholders Dimon warns of increased inflation and interest rates. Concerned QE unwinding could cause chaos as ‘markets will get more volatile’.

Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver? Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone silver “set to test the $18 an ounce resistance level”. LBMA report: volume of silver ounces transferred in February fell by 24%. Standard Chartered: gold-silver ratio and supply/demand fundamentals favour silver. Gold/silver ratio at near two-year high on silver’s underperformance. Silver COT reports remain more bullish than at any time in history.

Brexit, Stagflation Pressures UK High Street. UK high street and wider consumer market feeling effects of financial crisis, Brexit and inflation. 350,000 retails jobs expected to disappear between 2016 and 2020. Centre for Retail Research predicts 9,500 shops to close this year and 10,200 in 2019. UK is ‘worst performing’ European market for new car registrations – Moody’s. UK’s growth outlook is the ‘worst in the G20’ – Institute of Fiscal Studies.

Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018. Gold signs off Q1 2018 with best run since 2011. Gold price supported by safe haven demand, interest-rate concerns and inflation. Trade wars and concerns over equity market have sent investors towards gold. ETF holdings highest in nearly a decade. Goldman Sachs: ‘The dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to stay’.

“Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby. Gold ends March with a third-quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011. Impressive gains seen despite tightening of monetary policy from Federal Reserve. Frisby – gold is set to break through technical resistance of $1,360. Gold’s safe haven role back in focus with Trump trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions. Now is opportune time for investors to buy gold, ahead of next quarter.

Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability. Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects. Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union. Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy. Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon.

Silver Futures Report, JP Morgan Record Silver Bullion Holding Is Extremely Bullish. JP Morgan Continues Adding To Massive Silver Bullion Holdings (see chart). Silver Speculators Go Short – Which Is Extremely Bullish. Stunning Silver COT Report: One For the Ages (see chart).

London house prices falling at fastest pace since 2009. Values fell by 2.6% in year through January. London house prices likely to be weakest in UK over next five years. Inflated prices make London property more exposed to economic and political shocks. Worries over house prices are having a knock-on effect in wider economy. Physical gold to act as much needed hedge against falling property prices.

– Market turmoil as trade war concerns deepen and Trump appoints war hawk Bolton
– Oil, gold and silver jump as ‘Russia China Hawk’ Bolton appointed
– Oil up 4%, gold up 2.2% and silver up 1.6% this week (see table)
– Stocks down sharply – Nikkei down 4.5%, S&P 4.3% & Nasdaq 5.5%
– Bolton scares jittery markets already shell-shocked by US’ tariffs against China
– Currency wars and trade wars tend to proceed actual wars
– Gold now outperforming stocks year to date

Gold gained 1.8% and silver 2.5% to $1,333/oz and $16.60/oz yesterday. Gold climbs as Fed increases interest rates by 0.25% – now 1.5% to 1.75% range. Dovish Fed Chair Powell plans fewer than expected rate hikes in 2018. Markets disappointed at lack of hawkish comments from new Fed Chair. Dollar LIBOR rises to highest level since November 2008 – $200 trillion worth of dollar-denominated financial products including mortgages based off LIBOR.

Key Metric LIBOR OIS Signals Major Credit Concerns. Widening of the spread between LIBOR OIS (overnight index swap) rate raises concerns. Spread jumped to 9 year widest spread, rising to 54.6bps, most since May 2009. Libor recently moved to over 2% for first time since 2008. Wider spread usually associated with heightened credit concerns.

Hungary’s Gold Repatriation Adds To Growing Protest Against US Dollar Hegemony. Hungarian National Bank (MNB) to repatriate 100,000 ounces gold from Bank of England. Follows trend of Netherlands, Germany, Austria and Belgium each looking to bring gold back to home soil. Hungary one of the smallest gold owners amongst central banks, with just 5 tonnes. Central bank gold purchases continue to be major drivers of gold market.

Gold Protects As Cashless Society Threatens Vulnerable. Swedish authorities concerned cashless society is happening ‘too quickly’ and heading into ‘negative spiral’. Only 25% of Swedes paid in cash at least once a week in 2017, 36% never use cash. Cash usage in Sweden falling both as share of GDP and in nominal terms. Sweden may be world’s first economy to introduce a cryptocurrency, the e-krona. Cashless is not a disincentive for illegal drug trade, Guardian finds. Gold in safe jurisdictions will protect against raids on cash and wealth.

Stock Market Selloff Showed Gold Can Reduce Portfolio Risk. Recent stock market selloff showed gold can deliver returns and reduce portfolio risk. Gold’s performance during stock market selloff was consistent with historical behaviour. Gold up nearly 10% in last year but performance during recent selloff was short-lived. The stronger the market pullback, the stronger gold’s rally. WGC: ‘a good time for investors to consider including or adding gold as a strategic component to their portfolios.’.

Women’s Pension Crisis Highlights Dangers To Savers.
– International Women’s Day highlights the underreported UK Women’s pension crisis.
– 2.66 million affected by UK government’s change to state pension act.
– Women’s pension crisis is one of many in the UK, where there is a £710bn deficit for prospective retirees.
– Changes by government highlights the counterparty risks pensions are exposed to.
– Global problem as pensions gap of developed countries growing by $28B per day.

Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes. Gold no longer fears or pays attention to Fed announcements regarding interest rates. Renewed interest in gold due to inflation fears and concern Fed won’t do enough to control it. Higher interest rates on horizon will make debt levels unsustainable. New Fed Chair warns “the US is not on a sustainable fiscal path” and could lead to an “unsustainable” debt load. Higher interest rates are good for gold as seen in the 1970s and 2000s.

London Property Sees Brave Bet By Norway As Foxtons Profits Plunge. Sales in London property market at ‘historic lows’. 65% fall in pre-tax profits in 2017 to £6.5m reported by London estate agents Foxtons. Foxtons warns 2018 will ‘remain challenging’ for London property. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is backing London’s property market. RICS: UK property stock hits record low as buyer demand falls. Own physical gold to hedge falls in physical property.

Will digital gold provide the benefits of physical gold? Digital gold and crypto gold products claim to combine efficiencies of blockchain with value of gold. They are yet to provide the same benefits or safety as owning physical gold. National mints jumping in on the ‘sexy blockchain’ act. BOE declares bitcoin ‘not a currency;’ Royal Mint launches blockchain gold product.

Bank Bail-In Risk In Europe Seen In 5 Charts. Nearly €1 trillion in non-performing loans poses risks to European banks’. Greece has highest non-performing loans as a share of total credit. Italy has the biggest pile of bad debt in absolute terms. Bad debt in Italy is still “a major problem” which has to be addressed – ECB. Level of bad loans in Italy remains above that seen before the financial crisis. Deposits in banks in Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Ireland, Czech Republic and Portugal most at risk from bank bail-in.

US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken. Trade war between two superpowers continues to escalate. White House likely to impose steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports on ‘national security grounds’. US may impose global tariff of at least 24% on imports of steel and 7.7% on aluminium. China “will certainly take necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights.”

Global Debt Crisis II Cometh
– Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns
– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
– Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
– US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014
– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years
– UK consumer debt hit £200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments

“This Is Where They Completely Lost Their Minds” – Hussman. Hussman warns ‘the S&P 500 to lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this cycle’. ‘the market has lost value, even since 2009, when overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions were joined by divergent internals’. Believes the market is going to learn lessons about the crash ‘the hard way’.

Brexit Risks Increases – London Property Market and Pound Vulnerable. Brexit uncertainty deepens as UK government in disarray. BOE warns of earlier and larger rate hikes for Brexit-hit UK. UK property prices fall second month in row, London property under pressure. No deal Brexit estimated to cost UK £80bn according to government analysis. Transition period causing major uncertainty for UK and pound. Pound expected to fall as Brexit fears remain into 2018.

Peak Gold: 2017 Supply Flat As China Output Falls By 9%. China gold production falls by 9% to 420.5t in 2017. Chinese gold demand rose 4% to 953.3t in same period. China is largest producer and accounts for 15% of global gold production. China does not export gold. Increasing foreign gold acquisitions to meet demand. Global gold production flat – 3,269t in ’17 from 3,263t in ’16, smallest increase since ’08. Peak Gold is here: supply set to fall gradually while global demand remains robust.

Crypto Currency Backlash Sees Flight From Cryptos and Bitcoin. Bitcoin falls from $20,000 to below $6,000 and bounces back to $8000. Top 50 crypto currencies lost over 50% of value in 24 hours. Over $60 billion wiped off entire crypto currency market in 24 hours. Markets concerned about increased regulation, manipulation & country-wide bans. ‘Growing global unease about risks virtual currencies pose to investors and financial system’.

Shrinkflation continues to take hold across UK, Ireland and US for sixth year running. Shrinkflation sees consumers gets less product, but at the same or increased price. 2,500 products have shrunk according to Office of National Statistics in UK. Reported inflation is between 1.7% and 3% but actually much higher. Shrinkflation is financial fraud, unreported inflation in stealth mode. Gold is hedging inflation and shrinkflation.

Silver Bullion: Once and Future Money. “Silver is as much a monetary metal as gold” – Rickards. U.S. following footsteps of Roman Empire which collapsed due to currency debasement (must see table). Silver bullion is set to rally due to a combination of supply/demand fundamentals, geopolitical pressures creating safe haven demand, and increasing inflation expectations as confidence in central banking and fiat money erodes.

Davos elite hear warnings of complacency akin to 2007 as economic risks grow. Toxic mix of infallible belief, arrogance, megalomania and economic ignorance. Some express concern economies are vulnerable due to imbalances, trade, geo-political tensions. Soros: Trump creating ‘mafia state’ & ‘set on a course towards nuclear war’ with N Korea. Bond bear market, rising interest rates and massive $233 trillion debt are some of the many threats to global stability.

Cyber war is increasing threat – Investors are not prepared for. Third most likely global risk in 2018 is cyber war say WEF. “Scale and sophistication of attacks is going to grow”. EU, US, NATO lay down ground rules for offensive cyber war. Ireland is viable target for attackers but is ‘grossly unprepared for cyber war’. UK should expect attack that cripples infrastructure within 2 years.

Government Shutdown Ends – Markets Ignore Looming Debt and Bond Market Threat For Now. U.S. Senate pass a temporary spending plan through Feb. 8 to end shutdown. Markets shrug off both government shutdown and re-opening. Markets, government and media ignoring worsening US debt position. Gold responding positively to U.S. dysfunction, rising US Treasury yields & weaker dollar. U.S. government national debt is $20.6 trillion and increasing rapidly. ‘Bonds, like men, are in a bear market’ – Bill Gross

The Next Great Bull Market in Gold Has Begun – Rickards on Peak Gold And Technicals. ‘Gold is in the early stages of a sustainable long-term bull market’ Rickards. Rickards believes the next bull market in gold will be even more powerful than those of 1971–1980 and 1999–2011. This new rally could send gold $1,475 or higher by next summer thanks to Fed rate hikes. Warns of Peak Gold ‘Physical gold is in short supply. Refiners can’t get enough to meet demand.’.

‘Digital Gold’ Bitcoin Flight To Safe Haven Physical Gold. Latest bitcoin, crypto crash causes gold coin and bar demand to surge. Bitcoin down 40% from high, Ripple down 50% and Ethereum down 30%. Ripple and ‘Digital gold’ Bitcoin fall past key psychological price levels. $300bn wiped from cryptocurrency fortunes in just 36 hours. New research says that there is ‘Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem’.

JP Morgan continues to accumulate the biggest stockpile of physical silver in history. “JPM now holds more than 133m oz -more than was held by the Hunt Bros” – Butler. Silver hoard owned by JPM has increased from Zero ozs in 2011 to 120m ozs today. Money managers showing more optimism towards silver through record buying. “Near impossible to rule out an upside price surprise at any moment”

London homeowners cut property prices by another 1.4% in January. Average price for a London house dropped by £22,000 to £600,926 in 2017. Takes 78 days to sell a home on average, the highest level since 2012. London’s downtrend continues after 2017 performance as worst UK housing market. UK regional house prices begin to falter as house prices climb slows down.

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies. Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies. A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP. As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £. Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies.

The World is $233 Trillion In Debt: It’s Time to Rebalance To Gold. Record level global debt level hit $233 trillion in Q3 2017. World’s per capita debt now more than $30,000. UK personal debts climbed to the highest level since credit crunch, reaching more than £200bn. US consumer credit highest jump in 2 years by 8.8% in November to $3.83 trillion. BofE warn UK banks could incur £30bn of losses if interest rates and unemployment rise sharply.

10 Reasons Why You Should Add To Your Gold Holdings. Gold currently undervalued. Since 2000, the gold price has beaten the S&P 500 Index. A ‘a once-in-a-decade opportunity’ as gold-to-S&P 500 ratio is at its lowest point in 10 years. Reached ‘peak gold’ as exploration budgets continue to tighten. $80 trillion sits in global equities, a ‘ticking time bomb’. Gold remains an appealing diversifier in the current environment of high valuations and uncertainties

Palladium prices surge to new record high over $1,100/oz today. Palladium surges past record nominal price seen in 2001 after 55% surge in 2017. Best-performing precious metal and commodity of 2017 is palladium. Palladium prices top platinum prices for first time in 16 years. Strong Chinese car demand and switch from diesel to petrol cars sees demand surge. Supply crunch as six year supply deficit & 2017 deficit expected to hit 83,000 ounces

Christmas film serves as reminder that savings are not guaranteed protection by banks. Savers are today more exposed to banking risks than ever before. Gold and silver investment reduce exposure to counterparty risks seen in financial system. Basket of Christmas goods has climbed since 2016 thanks to 11% climb in gold price.

Gold Has Best Year Since 2010 With Near 14% Gain In 2017. Gold posted second straight annual gain in USD in 2017. Gold in 2017: up 13.6% USD, up 2.7% GBP, down 1.4% EUR. 2017 is gold’s best year since 29.5% gain in 2010. Strong performance despite rate hikes and stock bubble. India’s gold imports surged 67% in 2017, Turkish, Chinese demand strong. Gold finished 2017 with longest rally since June 2016. 2018: Currency War and The Year of the Phoenix?

Happy 2nd Birthday Bail-in Tool! We Suggest Gold As The Perfect Gift. Two years since bail-in rules officially entered EU regulations. EU bail-in rules have wiped out billions for savers and and businesses, with more at risk. Future of many failing banks now rests on depositors who may no longer be protected by deposit insurance.

98,750,067,000,000 Reasons to Buy Gold in 2018. World equity index market capitalization touching distance of $100 trillion dollars at beginning of December. Key indicators across global financial markets are looking decidedly bubble-like. Little indication that we are through the worst of the financial crisis that started in 2007. Apparent lack of concern regarding the over-heated and overpriced markets.

Gold, Bitcoin and the Blockchain Replaces the Banks – Realists Guide To The Future. Futurist guide to 2028 shows a world of uncertainty and disruption. One scenario suggests cybersecurity attacks will result in bitcoin and blockchain’s dominance of financial systems. Cybersecurity threat will still loom large and wreak havoc. Gold, silver and other real assets will benefit. Adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain will send gold price soaring. Use of cryptocurrencies to take advantage of world systems will see investors turn to safe havens such as gold bullion and coins.

New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements. War on cash continues and expands to affect non-criminals including gold owners. New definitions of “cash” to be drawn up by EU to include gold and precious metals. Claim cash and gold bullion “often used for criminal activities such as money laundering, or terrorist financing”. Legislation will allow authorities to seize assets from those ‘without a criminal conviction’. New rules usurp those currently in existence since 2005

‘Availability of gold strengthens public confidence in the central bank’s balance sheet’ say Bundesbank. Bundesbank has Audited Reserves amounting to almost 3,400 tonnes, around 68% of Bundesbank’s reserve assets. Bank taken series of steps to increase transparency around Germany’s gold holdings. Germany has second largest gold holdings in the world; U.S. believed to be largest. Transparency important and all central banks should follow the Bundesbank lead

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price. FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%. Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%. Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen does not expect Trump’s tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy. No concern for bitcoin which ‘plays a very small role in the payment system’.

Bailins Coming In EU – 114 Italian Banks Have NP Loans Exceeding Tangible Assets. Italy opposes ECB proposal that holds banks to firm deadlines for writing down bad loans. Italy’s banks weighed down under €318bn of bad loans. New ECB rules could ‘derail’ any recovery in Italy’s financial system. Draft proposal requires banks to provision fully for loans that turn sour from 2018. ECB insists banks have better access to collateral on delinquent debt to solve problem.

Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries. Increased efforts in green energy and advanced technology set to boosts silver’s demand. Four-year supply deficit set to increase due to fewer mine openings and discoveries. Bank manipulation may be why silver under performing. TD Securities and the Bank of Montreal expect silver to be best performing precious metal in 2018.

We own gold bullion to “support national security” – Russian Central Bank. Russia warns Washington: Confiscating fx reserves would be “declaration of financial war”. Russia has quadrupled its gold bullion reserves in decade. BRICs discussing ‘the possibility of establishing a single (system of) gold trade’. Russia, China & maybe Saudi Arabia form alliances to unseat petrodollar. Putin warns state-owned and private companies: be ready for rapid transition to war-time operations. Russia, China gold-buying, Saudi strategic shift signal petrodollar era ending

FOMC minutes show uncertainty and concern about markets are affecting officials’ decision-making. Officials were cautious when evaluating market conditions and the ‘damaging effects on the economy’. Worry about ‘potential buildup of financial imbalances’ and a sharp reversal in asset prices’. Members seem oblivious to impact of inflation on households and savings. Physical gold and silver remain the only assets for real diversification and safety

Geopolitical risk highest “in four decades” should push gold higher – Citi. Elections, political and macroeconomic crises and war lead to gold investment. Political uncertainty in Germany means “gold likely to remain in good demand as a safe haven” say Commerzbank. “There has rarely been such political uncertainty in Germany at any time in the country’s post-war history” – Commerzbank. Reduce counter party risk: own safe haven allocated and segregated gold.

Gold versus Bitcoin: The pro-gold argument takes shape. Why cryptocurrencies will not replace gold as a store of value. Similarities between crypto and gold but that does not make them substitutes. Gold remains a highly liquid market, cryptocurrencies continue to be fragmented and difficult to spend. Bitcoin does not make it an effective hedge against stocks

Brexit budget – Grim outlook as UK economic forecasts downgrade. UK Chancellor uses housing market policy as smoke-screen for deteriorating economy. UK budget matters more than ever due to BREXIT risks. Policy on stamp duty will fail to aid worsening housing market. Real GDP expected to grow by just 1.5%, 40% less than projections 2 years ago. Households now face an unprecedented 17 years of stagnation in earnings. Critics claim Budget failed to calm Brexit uncertainty. UK and especially London property market at “breaking point”

UK debt crisis is here – consumer spending, employment and sterling fall while inflation takes off. Personal debt crisis coming to fore – litigation cases go beyond 2008 levels. October consumer spending fell by 2% in October, the fastest year-on-year decline in four years. Britons ‘face expensive Christmas dinner’ as food price inflation soars. Gold investors buying physical gold due to precarious UK and US outlook

Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection. New ECB paper proposes ‘covered deposits’ should be replaced to allow for more flexibility. Fear covered deposits may lead to a run on the banks. Savers should be reminded that a bank’s word is never its bond and to reduce counterparty exposure. Physical gold enable savers to stay out of banking system and reduce exposure to bail-ins

Internet shutdowns (116 in two years) show physical gold is ultimate protection. Number of internet shutdowns increased in 2017 as 30 countries hit by shutdowns. Democratic India experienced 54 internet shutdowns in last two years; Brazil 2. EU country Estonia, a technologically advanced nation, experienced a shutdown. Gallup poll shows Americans more worried about cybercrime than violent crime. Governments use terrorist threat as reason for internet kill switch powers. Own physical coins and bars rather than digital gold on a single platform.

Gold coins and bars saw demand rise 17% to 222t in Q3, driven largely by China. Chinese investors bought price dips, notching up fourth consecutive quarter of growth. Jewellery, ETF demand fell while gold coins and bars saw increased demand. Central banks bought a robust 111t of gold bullion bars (+25% y-o-y). Russia, Turkey & Kazakhstan account for 90% of 111t of central bank demand. Turkey increased gold purchases and saw broad based physical gold demand.

Diversify, rebalance investments and prepare for interest rate rises. UK launches inquiry into household finances as £200bn debt pile looms. Centuries of data forewarn of rapid reversal from ultra low interest rates. 700-year average real interest rate is 4.78% (must see chart). Massive global debt bubble – over $217 trillion (see table). Global debt levels are building up to a gigantic tidal wave.

UK economy outlook bleak amid Brexit, debt woes and rising inflation. Confidence in UK housing market at five-year low. UK high street sales crash at fastest rate since 2009. Number registering as insolvent in England and Wales hit a five-year high in Q3. UK public finance hole of almost £20bn in the public finances set to grow to £36bn by 2021-22. Protect your savings with gold in the face of increased financial woes in UK.

Gold mining production in China fell by 9.8% in H1 2017. Decreasing mine supply in world’s largest gold producer and across the globe. GFMS World Gold Survey predicts mine production to contract year-on-year.
Peak gold production being seen in Australia, world’s no 2 producer. Peak gold production globally while global gold demand remains robust.

Today, gold is increasingly viewed by German investors as a regular form of saving: 25% of those surveyed in 2016 said their gold purchase had been part of a regular review of their investments, while 23% said it was part of their retirement planning.

Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in ten years. President Trump announces Jerome Powell as his choice to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve. Most investors outside the US Dollar and Euro see gold prices climb after busy week of central bank news. Inflation now at five-year high of 3%. Inflation, low-interest rate, debt crises and bail-ins still threaten savers and pensioners.

Precious metals advisor Claudio Grass believes Switzerland can serve as an example to rest of world. Switzerland popular for gold storage due to understanding of the risks inherent in fiat money and gold’s value as a store of wealth. International investors opt to store gold in Swiss allocated accounts due to tradition of respecting private property.

Italy’s Veneto banking meltdown destroyed 200,000 savers and 40,000 businesses. EU bail-in rules have wiped out billions for savers and and businesses, with more at risk. Bail-ins are not unique to Italy, all Western savers are at risk of seeing savings disappear. Counterparty-free, physical gold bullion is best defence against bail-ins.

Gold versus bitcoin debate makes further headlines as tech experts weigh in. Peter Thiel tells Saudi conference he believes bitcoin is underestimated and compares to gold. Steve Wozniak tells Money 20/20 that bitcoin is a better standard of value than gold and U.S. dollar. Both men recognise that the US dollar has little value and there are worthy competitors to its crown as reserve currency. Gold continues to hold its value and has multiple uses, bitcoin remains volatile and difficult to use. Experts are pushing an unnecessary debate as gold and bitcoin state more about fiat than each other.

Gold will be safe haven again in looming EU crisis. EU crisis is no longer just about debt but about political discontent. EU officials refuse to acknowledge changing face of politics across the union. Catalonia shows measures governments will use to maintain control. EU currently holds control over banks accounts and ability to use cash. Protect your savings with gold in the face of increased financial threat from EU.

L’histoire de la Chine et de son obsession pour l’or a été ravivée cette année, comme nous le prouvent les chiffres des importations effectuées via de Hong Kong et négociées sur le Shanghai Gold Exchange. Mais au vu des articles que nous, commentateurs du marché de l’or, écrivons au sujet de l’amour de la Chine pour l’or, il est surprenant de constater qu’il y a moins de cent ans, le pays perdait l’équivalent de milliers d’années de réserves.

Gold is better store of value than bitcoin – Goldman Sachs report. Gold will continue to perform well thanks to uncertainty and wealth demand. Bitcoin’s volatility continues to impact its role as money. Gold up 12% in 2017, bitcoin over 600%. BTC is six times more volatile than gold – see chart.

Russia adds 1.1 million ounces to reserves in ongoing diversification from USD. 34 ton addition brings Russia’s Central Bank holdings to 1,779t; 6th highest. Russia’s gold reserves are at highest point in Putin’s 17-year reign. Russia’s central bank will buy gold for its reserves on the Moscow Exchange.

Next Wall Street Crash looms? Lessons on anniversary of crash. 30 years since stock market ‘Black Monday’ crash of 1987. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6% on October 19, 1987. S&P 500, FTSE and DAX fell 20%, 11% & 9% respectively. Gold rose 24.5% in 1987 (see chart), acting as safe haven. Prior to crash, stocks hit successive record highs despite imbalances. Imbalances that lead to 1987 crash are much worse today

10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th. Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP. Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later. S&P 500’s 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value. Gold’s performance is slowly forcing mainstream to re-consider gold.

What Steel’s study shows is that, as with any monetary force, it is how it is managed rather than what it is that carries responsibility for conflicts and the resulting financial situation. Steel’s work also demonstrates the strength and protection access to gold will give a country or army during times of conflict.

Brexit UK vulnerable as gold bar exports distort UK trade figures. Britain’s gold exports worth more than any other physical export. Gold accounted for more than one in ten pounds of UK exports in July 2017. UK’s stock of wealth has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn – ONS error. Brexiteers argue majority of trade is outside EU, this is due to large London gold exports. Single gold bar (London Good Delivery) is, at today’s prices, worth just over £400,000. “There are few things you’ll ever touch which pack so much weight into such a small size”.

US Mint gold coin sales and VIX at weakest in a decade. Very low gold coin sales and VIX signal volatility coming. Gold rises 1.7% this week after China’s Golden Week; pattern of higher prices after Golden Week. U.S. Mint sales do not provide the full picture of robust global gold demand. Perth Mint gold sales double in September reflecting increased gold demand in both Asia and Europe. Middle East demand likely high given geopolitical risks. Iran seeing increased gold demand and Iran’s gold coin price up by 5%

Young Guns of Gold Podcast – ‘The Everything Bubble’. Precious Metal Roundtable discuss gold in 2017 and outlook. Gold +9.1% year to date; Performing well given Fed raising rates, lack of volatility and surge in stock markets. “People are expecting too much from gold”. Economy: Inflation indicators, recession on the horizon, global debt issues. Global demand: ETF inflows, Russia central bank purchases, Germany investment figures and international coin demand bode well for gold. “First monetary inflation, then asset inflation, next is price inflation …”. Gold bull market resumed; silver should outperform gold

London house prices fall in September: first time in eight years. High-end London property fell by 3.2% in year. House sales down by over a very large one-third. Global Real Estate Bubble Index – see table. Brexit, rising inflation and political uncertainty causing many buyers to back away from market. U.K. housing stock worth record £6.8 trillion, almost 1.5 times value of LSE and more than the value of all the gold in world.

Yahoo admits every single one of 3 billion accounts hacked in 2013 data theft. Equifax hacking and security breach exposes half of the U.S. population. Some 143 million people vulnerable to identity theft. Deloitte hack compromised sensitive emails and client data. JP Morgan hacked and New York Fed hacked and robbed. International hacking group steals $300 million. Global digital banking and financial system not secure

Run On The Pound ? Jeremy Corbyn Says Should Plan For. Right to plan for ‘run on pound’ if Labour wins says Corbyn and Labour party . British pound already down 20% since Brexit, collapse already in play. Run on the pound likely due to Labour’s ‘command economy’ approach. Collapse in Sterling would undermine UK financial system. Portfolios holding sterling and related assets would be significantly affected. Pension funds and property the most likely to get hit by run on the pound. Gold to benefit as sterling collapse picks up pace

Safe haven silver to outperform gold in Q4 and 2018. “Expect silver to eventually outperform gold” say Metals Focus. 2017 YTD, silver has underperformed gold, climbing by 5% versus 11%. Silver undervalued versus gold and especially stocks, bonds and many property markets. Will follow gold’s reactions to macroeconomic & geopolitical factors and should outperform gold. Special report on India shows it accounts for just 16% of global silver demand. Silver a “safe haven at times during which gold failed to be” according to academic research

Gold climbs over 12% in YTD, matching S&P500 performance. Palladium best performing market, surges 36% 2017 YTD. Gold outperforms Nikkei 225, Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE and ISEQ. Geo-political concerns including Trump and North Korea supporting gold. Safe haven demand should push gold higher in Q4. Owning physical gold not dependent on third party websites and technology remains essential.

“Going off gold did the opposite of what many people think” – FT Alphaville. “Surprising” findings show benefits of Gold Standard. Study by former Obama advisor in 1999 and speech by Bank of England economist in 2017 make case for gold. UK economy was ‘much less prone to extremes’ under than the gold standard – research shows. ‘Gold standard seems to have produced fewer catastrophes for Britain’ – data shows . FT still wary of gold standard arguing ‘stability can be overrated and growth is worth having’

Listen to Jesse Livermore and ignore the noise of short term market movements, central bank waffle and daily headlines. Stock and bond markets are overvalued but continue to climb… for now. What goes up must come down and investors should diversify and rebalance portfolios despite market noise. Behavioural biases currently drive markets, prompting legendary investors to be confused and opt out.

£1 trillion crisis looms as pensions deficit and consumer loans snowball out of control. UK pensions deficit soared by £100B to £710B, last month. £200B unsecured consumer credit “time bomb” warn FCA. 8.3 million people in UK with debt problems. 2.2 million people in UK are in financial distress. ‘President Trump land’ there is a savings gap of $70 trillion.

Bitcoin price action shows cryptos vulnerable to commentary and government policies. Bitcoin falls to low of $2,980, down by $1,000 in week as China flexes muscles. Volatility major issue: In 3 days btc fell 40% before bouncing 25% off lows. BIS state risks of cryptos cannot yet be fully assessed and says technology still unproven. Apple and Google developing a payment API for cryptos – may give governments full oversight. Bitcoin and cryptos current volatility and exposure to governments underlines gold’s safe haven status

North Korea threatens to reduce the U.S. to ‘ashes and darkness’. Markets becoming used to ongoing provocations from North Korea. Russia and China continue to support watered down versions of sanctions on Kim’s regime. Both NATO and Russia running war games on one another’s borders. Putin says Russia will “give a suitable response” to NATOs threatening behaviour.

President Maduro ” Venezuela will create a basket of currencies to free us from the dollar,”. Oil traders ordered to stop accepting U.S. dollar in exchange for crude oil. Order comes following calls from Russia and China to find alternatives to current reserve system. U.S. Dollar accounts for two-thirds of global trade. Venezuela has over ten-times more oil than United States. Super powers are gradually turning to gold to avoid using world’s main reserve currency. Are we seeing the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar?

“Things have been going up for too long…” – Goldman Sachs’ CEO. Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman CEO “unnerved by market” (see video). Bitcoin bubble is no outlier says Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Bubbles are everywhere including London property. $14 trillion of monetary stimulus has pushed investors to take more risks. We are now in a new era of bigger booms and bigger busts – BAML. “Seeing signs of bubbles in more and more parts of the capital market” – Deutsche Banks’ John Cryan. Global debt bubble and China very vulnerable too – warns Steve Keen. 

Gold hits $1,355/oz as USD at 32-month low -concerns about Trump, US economy. Silver and platinum 2.3% and 1.2% higher in week; palladium 3% lower. Euro Stoxx flat for week – S&P 500, Nikkei down 0.65% and 2.2%. Geo-political concerns including North Korea, falling USD push gold 2.1% in week. Gold prices reach $1,355 this morning following Mexico earthquake. Safe haven demand sees gold over one year high, highest since August 2016.

Physical gold is “the true currency of the last resort” – Goldman Sachs. “Gold is a good hedge against geopolitical risks when the event leads to a debasement of the dollar” . Trump and Washington risk bigger driver of gold than risks such as North Korea. Recent events such as N. Korea only explain fraction of 2017 gold price rally. Do not buy gold futures or ETFs rather “physical gold in a vault” [is] the “true hedge”.

Bitcoin falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese regulators warn. “Cryptocurrencies are beginning to get out of control” – warns respected investor Mark Mobius. Mobius believes governments will begin to clamp down on cryptocurrencies sparking rush to gold. Yesterday China’s PBOC ruled Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) are illegal and all related activity to halt. China is home to majority of bitcoin miners.

4 reasons why “gold has entered a new bull market” – Schroders. Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders. Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX. History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart). You should buy insurance when insurers don’t believe that the “risk event” will happen. Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold higher.

All four precious metals outperform markets in August. Gold posts best month since January, up nearly 4%. Gold reaches highest price since US election, climbs due to uncertainty and safe haven demand. S&P 500 marginally higher; Euro Stoxx, Nikkei lower for month. Platinum is best performing metal climbing over 5%. Palladium climbs over 4% thanks to seven year supply squeeze.

Trump could be planning a radical “reboot” of the U.S. dollar. Currency reboot will see leading nations devalue their currencies against gold. New gold price would be nearly 8 times higher at $10,000/o. Price based on mass exit of foreign governments and investors from the US Dollar. US total debt now over $80 Trillion – $20T national debt and $60T consumer debt. Monetary reboot or currency devaluation seen frequently – even modern history. Buy gold eagles, silver eagles including monster boxes and gold bars.

Gold surges as N. Korea fires ballistic missile over Japan. Safe haven buying sees gold break out to 10-month high after Jackson Hole and rising North Korea risk of attack on Guam. South Korea’s air force dropped eight MK 84 bombs near Seoul; simulating the destruction of North Korea’s leadership.

Bundesbank has completed a transfer of gold worth €24B from France and U.S. Germany has completed domestic gold storage plan 3 years ahead of schedule. In the €7.7 million plan, 54,000 gold bars were shipped and audited.

Gold up over 100% in major currencies since financial crisis. Gold up 100% in USD, 124% in EUR and surged 200% in GBP. Gold has outperformed equity, bonds and most assets. Gold remains an important safe-haven in long term.

US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin visits Fort Knox Gold
Later tweeted ‘Glad gold is safe!’
Only the third Treasury Secretary to visit the fortified vault, last visit was 1948

The Sage of Omaha’s adage is “it’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” But for Warren Buffett the current environment doesn’t appear to be offering up any wonderful companies at fair valuations. The situation is so bad that the cash stockpile of Berkshire Hathaway has more than doubled in the last four years, from under $40 billion to $100bn.

Gold and silver rise as stocks fall sharply after Barcelona attack. Gold, silver 0.6% higher in week after last weeks 2%, 5% rise. Palladium +36% ytd, breaks out & reaches 16 year high (chart). Gold to silver ratio falls to mid 75s after silver gains last week

Gold hedges massive ongoing devaluation of U.S. Dollar. 46th anniversary of ‘Tricky Dicky’ ending Gold Standard (see video). Savings destroyed by currency creation and now negative interest rates. Long-term inflation figures show gold a hedge against rising cost of fuel, food and cost of living. $20 food and beverages basket of 1971 cost $120.17 in 2017.

Shrinkflation has hit 2,500 products in five years. Not just chocolate bars that are shrinking. Toilet rolls, coffee, fruit juice and many other goods. Effects of shrinkflation been seen for “good number of years”. Consumer Association of Ireland. Shrinkflation is stealth inflation, form of financial fraud. Punishes vulnerable working and middle classes. Gold is hedge against inflation and shrinkflation.

‘We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.’ There are a lot of warnings on Bloomberg, CNBC and other financial media these days about a bubble in the stock market, particularly in FANG stocks and the tech sector.

Easy credit offered by UK banks is endangering “everyone else in the economy”. UK banks are “dicing with the spiral of complacency” again. Bank of England official believes household debt is good in moderation. Household debt now equals 135% of household income. Now costs half of average income to raise a child. Real incomes not keeping up with real inflation. 41% of those in debt are in full-time work. £1.537 trillion owed by the end of May 2017.

Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation. Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts). Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900. Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility. Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility.

Gold hedge against currency devaluation – cost of fuel, food, housing. True inflation figures reflect impact on household spending. Household items climbed by average 964%. Pint of beer sees biggest increase in basket of goods – rise of 2464%. Bread rises 836%, butter by 1023% and fuel (diesel) up by 1375%. Gold rises 2672% and hold’s its value over 40 years.

Bank of England warn that “bigger systemic risk” now than in 2008. BOE, Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) concerns re financial system. Banks accused of “balance sheet trickery” -undermining spirit of post-08 rules. EU & UK corporate bond markets may be bigger source of instability than ’08. Credit card debt and car loan surge could cause another financial crisis. PRA warn banks returning to similar practices to those that sparked 08 crisis. ‘Conscious that corporate memories can be shed surprisingly fast’ warns PRA Chair.

Gold imports into India have surged in the last six months thanks to festivals, economic recovery and concerns over a new tax regime and the push for the cashless society in India. Imports totalled 521 tonnes in the first half of this year, compared to just 510 tonnes in all of 2016.

China and Russia allied on Syria and North Korea. Beijing & Moscow economic & monetary ties deepen. Trump needs Russia in order to maintain balance of power in superpower triumvirate. Sino-Russian relations currently in their “best time in history” says Chinese President ahead of G20.

Yesterday North Korea sent the US a ‘package of gifts’ for Independence Day. Unsurprisingly the successfully tested and launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was not well received. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the move a “new escalation of the threat” to the U.S. and its allies and that “global action is required to stop a global threat.”

UK house prices on brink of massive 40% collapse. UK  at ‘edge of worst house price collapse since 1990s’– Two leading economists warn of property crash– “We are due a significant correction in house prices”– Brexit and wages failing to keep up with inflation to trigger collapse. Trend starting in London before fanning out to rest of UK. UK homeowners unconcerned – 58% expect prices to rise. Over 1 million mortgages under threat in UK. Concerns of return of new “negative equity” generation. Huge denial amid recency bias and endowment bias – emotional attachment to expensive things we buy – especially our homes.

Gold up 8% in first half 2017; builds on 8.5% gain in 2016. U.S. dollar down 6.5% – worst quarter in seven years. Gold higher in all currencies except Draghi’s euro – Gold outperforms bonds; similar gains as stock indices. S&P 500 and Dax outperform gold marginally. World stocks (MSCI World) up 10%; gold outperforms Eurostoxx (+6%) & FTSE (+2.3%). Silver up 3.7% in first half ; builds on 15% gain in 2016.

his current state of play won’t last forever. Only Gold lasts forever. Some days it can feel a little rough being a gold investor. In today’s article Dominic Frisby is certainly feeling that way. Sometimes it can be all too easy to get caught up in the day to day chat around prices. Some forget that the reasons why they invested are still strong, even if it feels like the price isn’t.

Gold hits five-week high. Reaches $1,273.74/oz, highest since April 25th. Sterling recovers after UK polls point towards a hung Parliament. Expected Fed-tightening capped gains. 90-dead in Kabul, further signs of increasing tension in Middle East. Trump expected to pull out of Paris Accord and Trump’s anti-Iran axis already feuding.

Tech is the umbrella word for all things fashionable to invest in right now. Take the recent flotation of Snap Inc. (parent company of teen and narcissists’ favourite app SnapChat), everyone wanted in on the $20 billion flotation. Snap is likely a sign of a tech bubble that will cost a lot of savers and investors huge amounts of money … again.

London property market vulnerable to crash. House prices in London are falling. London property up 84% in 10 years (see chart). House prices have risen over 450% in 20 years. Brexit tensions as seen over weekend and outlook for U.K. economy to impact property. Global property bubble fragile – Risks to global economy. Gold bullion a great hedge for property investors.

Silver, platinum and palladium see increased role as investment vehicles. Increase in academic output on the white precious metals is in line with this. Silver and particularly gold are safe haven assets. Silver was a safe haven at times during which gold failed to be. Platinum and palladium less so but have diversification benefits.

Gold is undervalued according to a record number of fund managers. Last time gold was considered undervalued, the price surged. BAML surveyed 175 money managers with $543 billion in assets under management. 34% of investors believe protectionism is the biggest threat to markets. Gold viewed as the best protectionist investment by a third of investors.

Gold prices continued to shine this week reaching $1,244.70 per ounce and and has posted gains in five of the last six weeks. This week it reached a new three-month high – it’s highest since the Trump win and has climbed over 6% this year, beating the gains made in the same period in 2016.

Gold hits 12-week high. USD Gold price up 4.85% in last month. Sabre-rattling from Trump administration set-to benefit gold. Iran upset and Middle East tensions could drive oil and gold prices up. Financial Times foresees “not only currency wars but a fully fledged trade confrontation that could be disastrous for the world economy.” Royal Mint producing 50 % more gold bullion coins and bars compared to 2016

By Jan Skoyles, Editor Mark O’Byrne
In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 20,000 earlier this week for the first time in its 132 year history to much media fanfare.
Bigcharts via Financial Sense
Since Trump’s election US market indicators, including the Dow have been ticking up – it has been labelled the Trump rally. This latest milestone is something that the new President is happy to take credit for. In fact, he tweeted ‘Great! #Dow20K’ in response.
He told ABC News that
“We just hit a record, and a number that’s never been hit before. So I was very honored by that … Now we have to go up, up, up …”
Trump’s senior advisor (and fellow advocate for a weaker dollar) Anthony Scaramucci took to Twitter to thank President Trump for bringing about the

Cash is the new “barbarous relic” according to many central banks, regulators, and some economists and there is a strong, concerted push for the ‘cashless society’. Developments in recent days and weeks have highlighted the risks posed by the war on cash and the cashless society.