The Iran conflict has dominated the headlines, with the financial media primarily focusing on rising oil prices. While higher oil prices can certainly impact the economy, the dollar’s surge, which we hear little of, is an equally consequential market and […]
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Will Oil Prices Unleash A Wave Of Inflation?
2026-03-06
Bloomberg writes: “Iran War Oil ShockThreatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation.” To be fair, the article is not as pessimistic as the title suggests. However, the fear that significantly higher, sustained oil prices will unleash a wave of inflation is gaining popularity and merits discussion. We start with math to address the historical relationship …
Homesellers Dwarf Homebuyers: Home Prices At Risk
2026-02-25
The housing market is experiencing a widening imbalance between homesellers and homebuyers, with listings rising faster than demand. This is contrary to the post-pandemic period of extremely tight inventory and strong demand. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates who were initially hesitant to sell are now increasingly selling. As shown below, the housing market is shifting …
Stagnation Is Lulling The Fed To Sleep
2026-01-09
The JOLTs data released on Wednesday paint a picture of labor market stagnation. The graph below shows that the number of job openings has fallen to levels similar to those right before the pandemic. While the number of openings seems somewhat stable, layoffs are slowly increasing, while new hires are near a 15-year low. Similarly, …
Precious Metals Aren’t Predicting Economic Collapse
2026-01-05
In 2025, the prices of precious metals rose sharply, with silver prices recently surging past $80 per ounce. Of course, when precious metals rise, there is always the same group of commentators (mostly paid newsletter writers and physical metal dealers) to declare that a financial breakdown is underway. Articles like those published on ZeroHedge by …
Full Market Cycles: Half Bull and Half Bear
2025-11-17
Last week, we discussed the importance of “math” as it relates to valuations and noted the importance of understanding “full market cycles.” To wit: “The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up. The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. …
A Dollar Reversal Could Halt The Gold Bull
2025-10-02
In Monday’s Commentary, we alerted readers that the dollar could be setting up for a reversal higher. Furthermore, we noted that if such a turn comes to fruition, some investors may encounter surprises. To wit: As such, investors should examine their portfolios for risks that have developed with the reversal of the previously overbought dollar, to …
Is Nvidia Recycling Profits?
2025-09-26
Several articles and social media posts have recently discussed the irregular partnerships that Nvidia is forming with some of its clients. The gist of the story is that Nvidia is investing in its clients, who then use the funds to buy Nvidia chips. This is what CNBC stated in a headline on Wednesday. This is …
Trump’s BLS Reform Faces Steep Obstacles
2025-09-16
The White House has turned its attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a series of steep payroll revisions rattled confidence in the government’s jobs data. President Trump fired the agency’s commissioner last month and has nominated a longtime critic to take her place, pledging reforms to improve accuracy. But the problems run deeper …
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