Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar Outlook

by
Marc Chandler
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I had the privilege of joining Scarlet Fu and Joe Wisenthal on the set of What’d You Miss on Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon. It was within a couple of hours of the second Fed rate hike in a decade.   The dollar rallied.
I was surprised by the changed forecasts.  The median forecast, which is not the same thing as the Fed view, edged about 25 bp higher across the forecasting horizon. I had thought the the aspirational policy of the incoming Administration was not the kind of thing on which monetary policymakers would anchor their forecasts.  Yet at the press conference, Yellen revealed that some but not all members did precisely that.
My long-term (and longstanding) view is the the divergence of monetary policy broadly understood will lift continue to lift the dollar on a trend basis.  In addition, the US policy mix, looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy is also dollar supportive.  Also, as I discuss in the nearly five minute clip, the rise of populism-nationalism is particularly detrimental for Europe.

About Marc Chandler

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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