by Marc Chandler
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The Greek crisis that dominated the European discussion in the first half of the year was barely ending when attention turned to the refugee problem. While it often seemed that all of Europe was united against Greece, the refugee problem is significantly more divisive, though southern Europe, especially Italy and Greece are the front lines.
In the financial crisis, we emphasized the linkage between solvency and sovereignty. The less solvent a country was, the more sovereignty was surrendered. This is most evident in Greece and Cyprus, but it was evident in Portugal and Ireland as well.
Now, Greece is having trouble managing its external borders, and its sovereignty is eroded. It reluctantly accepted 400 Frontex (EU's current border force) officials to protect it border with Macedonia.
The EC is advocating a new border agency that can deploy guards to external frontiers even over the objections of national officials. The agency, the "European Border and Coast Guard" would be considerably more powerful that Frontex. It would have permanent staff of 1000 and the ability to draw another 1500 when needed.
The initial budget of 322 mln euros is more than twice amount allocated for Frontex. The plan is backed by Germany and France, though still requires approval by individual countries and the EU parliament. The UK and Ireland opt out of the Schengen Agreement and will not be covered by the new agency.
This Great Graphic was published by the World Economic Forum. It got it from a Finnish firm, Lucify, that specializes in the visualization of data, and draws on UN data. It is a interactive chart that I took a snapshot of, but click here. Essentially the chart shows where the refugees are coming from and where they are going in Europe. Each light dot represents 25 people. The interactive aspect shows the flows since 2012.
The interactive chart shows that the flow refugees and asylum seekers in Western Europe head toward Germany and Sweden. Since April 2011, an estimated 750k Syrians have sought refuge in Western Europe. There are an estimated four million registered Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and other Northern African countries.
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
Tags: Great Graphic
