Merkel: ‘No Eurobonds as Long as I Live’, Hollande: ‘Eurobonds will take up to 10 years’

German chancellor Angela Merkel today confirmed the content of our article that Eurobonds are pure utopia. She vows  ”No Eurobonds as Long as I Live”.

More on Spiegel Online

Again we urge our English-speaking investors to stop believing that Germany will bail out the euro zone, as stated in the Financial Times or the Economist, and to use google translator instead and read e.g. www.faz.net (conservative) or the english version of Spiegel Online (rather left-wing).

More investors are now of our opinion, Ray Dalio doesn’t assume that Germany will bail Europe out. “Be careful when betting against human nature”.

The first German full-blown bailout, namely the integration of the Eastern German part (only 17 million people) caused the German debt (see right) to triple from 430 bln. euro in 1989 to 1200 bln in 1999, a decade during which even the US managed to reduce debt for a couple of years. Germany greatly underestimated the integration costs. It let the country see a long phase of slow growth till 2006, and still now the west pays subsidies to the east. Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus and Greece might be better developed now than the former communist GDR. But they count over 100 million people and might need more time than the 20 years the former Eastern Germans (still they are hard-working Germans) needed to cope up. This first bad experience is may be the main reason why Angela Merkel says that people should not overestimate Germany.

The french president Francois Hollande said that he expects Eurobonds to come in “up to ten years”. We hope that Merkel will survive these ten years or that at least one of these two statesmen is a liar………..a new form of the ancient Greek liar paradox.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are not intended to be taken as investment advice. It is to be taken as opinion only and we encourage you to complete your own due diligence when making an investment decision. Even if we often write about Forex trading, our advices aren't written for day traders who follow technical channels, but rather for mid- and long-term investors. Our aim is to show discrepancies between fundamental data and current asset valuations, which can lead in mid-term to an inversion to technical channels.
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