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Schrödinger’s US-Dollar | Tavi Costa & Ronald Stöferle

Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital interviews Ronald Stöferle at this year’s Precious Metals Summit Conference located in Beaver Creek, CO. Together they discussed the current market setup. They discuss an interesting point, that the US-Dollar currently seems to be strong and weak at the same time.

The current setup
All around the western world we are looking at some sort of recession. Especially in Europe and the USA. Europe right now seems to be much worse, with stickier inflation and an energy crisis, which could lead to large social unrest and distortions. While the Federal Reserve has been hiking rates rather aggressively, the ECB has not acted that decisively. The Federal Reserve is sending mixed signals, with some being more hawkish and others more relaxed. History tells us, that at some point the U-Turn will come. But for now, the market is beginning to believe the narrative. Plus, there still has to be a lot of demand destroyed, before inflation will decrease significantly. Overall, the focus should be shifted to governments, since they now call most of the shots, regarding large government spending programs. In Europe, governments plan to pay for people’s energy bills this winter, and we will most likely see even more such schemes. These will greatly affect the behaviour of the population and are also highly inflationary.

US-Dollar strength and weakness
The current US-Dollar strength is a multifaceted phenomenon. The US-Dollar has picked up significant strength against both G7 currencies and currencies of developing countries. While it is big trouble for most developing markets, some are not affected at all. This is where we can see the duality of US-Dollar strength. It is commodity-rich developing nations, like Brazil, which have weathered the storm in regards to the US-Dollar onslaught.

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Ronald Stöferle
Ronald-Peter Stöferle is Managing Partner and Fund manager at Incrementum AG, based in the Principality of Liechtenstein. The company focusses on asset management and wealth management and is one hundred percent owned by its partners. Ronald manages a fund that invests based on the principles of the Austrian School of Economics.
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