by Lance Roberts
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10-3-24 When a Crystal Ball Clouds Investor Judgement
2024-10-03
A preview of tomorrow”s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance’s FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poor jobs numbers? Interestingly, QT is conspicuously absent from latest Fed discussion notes. Market Breadth continues to soar. You can’t make this up: Hurricane (James T.) Kirk: this wlll be comedy gold! Market breadth in an everything market: Too much money chasing too few stocks. lance & Michael discuss the problem of asset selection vs ETF’s.
3:06 – Why a Weaker Jobs Report is Not Recessionary
9-30-24 Navigating A Confidence Dichotomy
2024-09-30
The last day of September brings the end of the month, end of the quarter, and a preview of the next round of corporate earnings. So far, no evidence of recession is appearing. Regardless of your investment thesis, money flow still matters most, and there’s lots of money flowing into markets. China is most over-bought in years, thanks to Chinese government stimulus. Earnings outlooks will matter going forward. Oil prices are getting thrashed, with lots of short-selling over the last five weeks. Lance shares dog tales of Gunner & Sniper. With massive money inflows, liquidity is primary market driver. Lance discusses the components of our Greed/Fear Index; markets’ pricing is based on earnings. The two measures of consumer confidence; The Conference Board and U. of Michigan; Consumer
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