How the Fed Broke Doves’ Hearts

2024-03-27

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets’ steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance’s unique inflation indicator… Markets still act like there’s a flood of liquidity when there’s not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry Fink thinks so, or at least wants you to think he can; Blackrock & Merrill want to hold your money forever. Creation of Merrill’s Target Date Fund. Why Annuities are so lucrative; three reasons why

2024-01-30

(1/30/24) Mega-cap Earnings reporting continues with Microsoft reporting today; companies are meeting (lowered0 expectations, but not blowing the doors off. Valuations & Reflexivity Theory teaser, FOMC Meeting preview: Will the Fed begin to cut rates sooner? Markets set another all-time high. Housing dynamics: Pricing & Size and living on $30k/year. Why the cost of Housing has risen as a result of Fed policy & mortgage rule changes. Why Elizabeth Warren is pushing Jerome Powell to lower rates "to expand affordable housing" vs how to really do it. How the Patriot Party ruined a perfectly good name; George Soros’ Theory of Reflexivity & economic bubbles; predicting the future: change comes gradually. Markets are good at reflecting reality, and all markets care about now is the Fed.

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2024-01-29

(1/29/24) Markets look to wrap up January on an upward trend, but this week’s FOMC meeting could affect that slope. the problem w economic data on the surface: Increasing GDP growth by adding debt. Who will provide the best policy mix to create stronger growth? Markets continue to rally as lowered earnings estimates and bigger beats provide support. Deviations from averages are difficult to maintain; look for market correction in the weaker month of February. Mega-cap companies are set to report this week and may sell-off. The myth of cash on the sidelines: Where does that money come from? Credit markets & the Federal Reserve: What could happen as more and more Americans own stocks? Buying Blue Chips cheap: the price we’re willing to pay has accelerated (watch for article this week on

2024-01-25

(1/25/24) The first estimate of Fourth Quarter GDP is released today: It’s only a guess, but expected to be slightly above 2%, which would be the slowest rate of growth since 2023, and coming off Q3 growth of 4.9% (NOTE: The actual number, released after this show aired, is 3.3%, still a significant slowdown from the previous quarter). The connection between GDP growth and earnings; valuations matter. The markets’ rally continues; is correction coming? The Fed changes stance: will there be regrets? The Fed’s #1 Goal is financial stability. The Fed is great at lighting fires, but not so good at putting them out. Is the Fed prepping for crisis? Fahrenheit 451 and The New Truth: cursive writing & The Constitution. Is 3% inflation the camel’s nose under the tent? What inflation really means,

2024-01-08

(1/8/24) What is up with airplane parts falling off in flight? Meanwhile, the first private sector lunar lander is launched in decades: The beauty behind "Hidden Figures" movie; looks like the January Trifecta could be short-lived; working off December’s excesses. How deep will the pullback be? Congress’ is enmeshed with another continuing resolution battle instead of mandated budgeting; that’s how D.C. does business now. The conundrum of capital allocations in 2024: Wall St. doubles-down on bonds; will the Magnificent-7 lead again, or will last year’s underperformers? What if interest rates come down but inflation stabilizes at 3%? no push for the Fed to act (not what’s expected). What about the "in-between outcome?" Audacy bankruptcy and how best to spend ad dollars; broadcast vs

2024-01-03

(1/3/24) Millennials’ Bare Minimum Monday’s could produce some unexpected results; setting up for January market performance in a Presidential cycle; will the Magnificent 7 produce a repeat performance in 2024? Markets on Tuesday corrected to bounce off the 20-DMA, with high tech names under pressure. Buy-signals triggered for Bonds. Rich Dad/Poor Dad Czar Kiyosaki’s debt philosophies and how to properly leverage debt. Home Sales & inventory: Are we seeing the start of trouble in the sector? Wall Street axioms & The January Trifecta; take them with a grain of salt. Mistakes in portfolio & market perspectives, year to year. Social Security COLA for 2024; making choices to fix SS are vote killers for politicians. Retirement planning & Monte Carlo simulations; the future is not going to be

2023-11-06

(11/6/23) Friday’s employment report was weaker than expected, as expected; there’s always no recession in sight…until it is. How long will it take for the lag effect to appear? Black Friday preview; market rallied to 6% after previous week of disappointment. Markets ran through resistance, and are now over bought; looking at Bonds’ tough year. The Fed says yields are doing its work; there’s no safe place to hide. Consumer confidence is key, and creates inflation; the trap the Fed is now in. Citizen Bank failure; higher interest rates are begining to take a toll. Why the FIRE movement is dead; the problem with retiring too early: Loss of skill; "Soft Saving" is now in: More relaxed attitude about retirement and savings, living in the moment. Berkshire Hathaway Quarterly report reveals