Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop

2024-03-28

If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. At times, like today, financial and borrowing conditions can be at odds with each other, which makes the Fed’s job of managing monetary policy more difficult. Threading the eye of this needle may prove problematic given that inflation remains too high and, more recently, is showing some signs of being sticky.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer

2024-03-10

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.

2024-02-29

Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it’s only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies’ ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets’ ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio performance within complacent markets (volatility is negatively correlated with markets.) Indicators are never perfect; avoid basing portfolio on just indicators. Examining the pace of stock buybacks: Are they really of value? Why pay a premium? Buybacks increase share price, not value. Apple vs Tesla: There has been no real innovation from Apple

2024-01-29

(1/29/24) Markets look to wrap up January on an upward trend, but this week’s FOMC meeting could affect that slope. the problem w economic data on the surface: Increasing GDP growth by adding debt. Who will provide the best policy mix to create stronger growth? Markets continue to rally as lowered earnings estimates and bigger beats provide support. Deviations from averages are difficult to maintain; look for market correction in the weaker month of February. Mega-cap companies are set to report this week and may sell-off. The myth of cash on the sidelines: Where does that money come from? Credit markets & the Federal Reserve: What could happen as more and more Americans own stocks? Buying Blue Chips cheap: the price we’re willing to pay has accelerated (watch for article this week on

2024-01-25

(1/25/24) The first estimate of Fourth Quarter GDP is released today: It’s only a guess, but expected to be slightly above 2%, which would be the slowest rate of growth since 2023, and coming off Q3 growth of 4.9% (NOTE: The actual number, released after this show aired, is 3.3%, still a significant slowdown from the previous quarter). The connection between GDP growth and earnings; valuations matter. The markets’ rally continues; is correction coming? The Fed changes stance: will there be regrets? The Fed’s #1 Goal is financial stability. The Fed is great at lighting fires, but not so good at putting them out. Is the Fed prepping for crisis? Fahrenheit 451 and The New Truth: cursive writing & The Constitution. Is 3% inflation the camel’s nose under the tent? What inflation really means,

2024-01-08

(1/8/24) What is up with airplane parts falling off in flight? Meanwhile, the first private sector lunar lander is launched in decades: The beauty behind "Hidden Figures" movie; looks like the January Trifecta could be short-lived; working off December’s excesses. How deep will the pullback be? Congress’ is enmeshed with another continuing resolution battle instead of mandated budgeting; that’s how D.C. does business now. The conundrum of capital allocations in 2024: Wall St. doubles-down on bonds; will the Magnificent-7 lead again, or will last year’s underperformers? What if interest rates come down but inflation stabilizes at 3%? no push for the Fed to act (not what’s expected). What about the "in-between outcome?" Audacy bankruptcy and how best to spend ad dollars; broadcast vs

2024-01-03

(1/3/24) Millennials’ Bare Minimum Monday’s could produce some unexpected results; setting up for January market performance in a Presidential cycle; will the Magnificent 7 produce a repeat performance in 2024? Markets on Tuesday corrected to bounce off the 20-DMA, with high tech names under pressure. Buy-signals triggered for Bonds. Rich Dad/Poor Dad Czar Kiyosaki’s debt philosophies and how to properly leverage debt. Home Sales & inventory: Are we seeing the start of trouble in the sector? Wall Street axioms & The January Trifecta; take them with a grain of salt. Mistakes in portfolio & market perspectives, year to year. Social Security COLA for 2024; making choices to fix SS are vote killers for politicians. Retirement planning & Monte Carlo simulations; the future is not going to be

2023-12-06

(12/6/23) Will there be a soft-landing, recession, or worse in 2024…or not until 2025? There is still lots of liquidity sloshing around the system. Focus on risk management & timing management; markets cannot seem to break out of present trading range; stock buyback window closes on Friday. End of year maneuvers should include RMD’s, charitable giving, HSA’s, and tax-loss harvesting; don’t ignore the wash rule! Why jobs matter: Yield curves are inverted; when they un-invert will herald recession: The big question is when?? Markets have had zero-returns over past two years. Why time in the market matters–especially if you’re young. Risk management is more important when you’re older; the 50/20/30 Rule.

3:04 – Recession 2024 or 2025?
14:14 – End of Year Maneuvers
29:59 – JOLTS & Jobs: