The Fed’s New Form of QE
2024-03-19
There’s a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. ance and Michael discuss the Fed’s Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative Easing: Which problem is easier to fix: Creating recession or inflation? Bank of Japan is ending it’s policy of negative rates; what will be the effect on the US? What’s the risk to the currency carry trade? Japan’s demographic problem. Is the Fed formulating a new type of QE? What QE does; is it inflationary? What the Fed can do; the stealth form of QE: Will it provide liquidity to markets?
Presidential Elections And Market Corrections
2024-03-10
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.
Are Buybacks Worth Paying Up For?
2024-02-29
Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it’s only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies’ ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets’ ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio performance within complacent markets (volatility is negatively correlated with markets.) Indicators are never perfect; avoid basing portfolio on just indicators. Examining the pace of stock buybacks: Are they really of value? Why pay a premium? Buybacks increase share price, not value. Apple vs Tesla: There has been no real innovation from Apple
Is 2024 Optimism Misplaced? (12/5/23)
2023-12-05
(12/5/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is a Sell-off Nigh for the Magnificent Seven?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
——-
Our previous show is here: "Will You Be Visited by Ghosts of Financial Mistakes-past?"
-vptVe1k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s
——–
Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Context And Facts Expose Bearish Bond Narratives"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/context-and-facts-expose-bearish-bond-narratives/
——-
Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
——–
Register for our next Candid Coffee:
Doing the Bond Math Amid Fiscal Dysfunction
2023-11-30
(11/30/23) Face-off Movie, Bond Math, and Market Preview: How does the Consumer continue to spend? Texas’ Christmas spending habits = $817/avg. Budgeting for Christmas w price pressure in mind. Will interest rates be but next year (why wouild the Fed do that)? Michael Lebowitz helps crunch the Bond Math: What price changes mean in the Bond Market. What is the credit risk to consider? How will you be paid? Recession is inevitable; how long do you want to hold a bond? Discounts vs Yields: doing the bond math (Bondilocks) factoring duration in getting paid; the higher the yield, the shorter the duration. Narrative Economics & The Federal Debt: what is happening to debt service? Is the US Fiscally-dysfunctional? Slwer Growth, less wealth, deflation are the results. It’s the interest expense
WWCMD: What Would #CharlieMunger Do? (11/29/23)
2023-11-29
(11/29/23) Berkshire Hathaway #2 man, Charlie Munger, has passed at age 99. We explore memorable quips and quotes from this amazing investor.
Hosted by RIA’s Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Need a Breather" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
——-
Our previous show is here: "Why the S&P is Up 17% and You’re Not"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s
——–
Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"S&P 500 Market Returns And Why Your Performance Is Worse"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-market-returns-and-why-your-performance-is-worse/
"Complacency Seems Overly Complacent"