Do Technical Measures and Valuations Really Matter?
2024-03-26
Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" – Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they’re too slow). All elements are now present for a reversion to the mean; just need a catalyst. What will turn buyers into sellers? The impact of more, earlier retirees on actuarial tables and Larry
Is Your Ex Worth More Dead than Alive?
2024-03-20
It’s Fed Day: Danny Ratliff provides a preview in Lance’s absence; mortgage rates are pricing-out most buyers. Is your ex- worth more dead than alive? Taking a look at SS survivors’ benefits: There are some caveats. How to incorporate inflation hedging into your portfolio. Making buying choices to better manage inflation in household budgets. Why some are accessing 401-k funds (and what about those who do not have one?) Understanding target date funds; why they’re generally the default for fund managers. Watch for higher fees and internal expenses; not all funds are created equal. Financial Spring Cleaning in 401-k: watch fund compositions.
3:14 – Fed Day preview & Market Commentary
14:40 – Is Your Ex- Worth More Dead than Alive?
30:30 – How to Hedge for Inflation
44:40 – Understanding
Why the Next Election Will Be About Economics
2024-01-22
(1/22/24) Earnings season continues with the bulk of S&P companies reporting this week: This should provide a clearer picture of how businesses are really doing. Why the Fed did QE according to Ben Bernanke: So Americans would feel better about the economy (never mind the fundamentals). Optimistic consumer confidence is now based on the guess that the Fed will cut rates this year. Markets achieve all-time high on Friday…but are now just .9% above break-even from two years ago. Watch markets set up for correction. All-time highs are like a magnet: How far can this momentum go? Commentary on the impact of AI on businesses, and the problem with AI replacements. Which companies are best able to take advantage of AI? Which companies will drive further development of AI, and how will this
Is the End of Quantitative Easing Near?
2024-01-18
(1/18/24) Texas Weather’s extreme mood-swings are on display; markets are in bore-mode until the stock buy back window opens again in two weeks; a look at Bitcoin, Gold, & Bonds; Is the Fed about to close down its quantitative easing play? The Yield Curve has invert, but is it about to un-invert? The Fed has a liquidity problem that is rising to the top: There’s not enough collateral in the market, and the Fed’s is about to take away liquidity: What do they see that we do not? How much leverage is still in the system? Michael’s FNMA story; Banks are leveraged 10:1 today, underscoring the importance of overnight markets for survival. The potential of stopping QT to provide needed liquidity. Why interest rates cannot go higher: Too much leverage all the way around. Will the Magnificent-7
How to Avoid the Retirement Income Death Spiral (1/12/24)
2024-01-12
(1/12/24) Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Prepare for the Q4 Earnings Parade,"is here:
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Our previous show is here: "Could You Live Solely on Social Security?"
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"The Goldilocks Narrative Reigns For Now"
Can Markets Defy Bearish Expectations?
2024-01-09
(1/9/24) Wall Street begins a new round of quarterly earnings, looking at the results of Q4; estimates for 2024 are allready falling. What are you really paying for earnings? Why we have to be in ETF’s, even though we don’t like them. There is evidence of an uptick in inflation this year. Markets miss achieving January Trifecta by .13%, despite tax gain selling pressure. Will January be similarly weak? We polled our viewers/listeners for their takes on what 2024 will hold: Polling the People includes commentary on S&P 500 Seasonality and bullish sentiment, and where the markets may end in 2024. There’s an expectation for negative returns, higher inflation, slower economic growth and Real GDP; higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and the odds for recession.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’
How to Respond to the Powell Pivot (12/19/23)
2023-12-19
(12/19/23) Markets are winding-down to the Christmas hoiday; trading volumes will be light. We’ve seen record inflows to S&P 500 ETF’s as markets have rallied = too much exuberance. Forgetting the basisc: Buy under-valued, sell over-valued. How the Dollar drives markets. Counting out the 12-days of Christmas: Why so many birds? Sell cash, buy stocks, as Powell pivots; how government intervention (the Fed) affects investor psychology: Did we get our money’s worth? Where did all that money go?? The disconnect of markets from the economy; market rescues funded on debt. Pre-market commentary; holiday spending: more money, less stuff; Lance’s weekend on the border; earnings preview: Shipping & freight commentary; don’t expect a big crash. Yet. Unexpected, exogenous events are catalysts of
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