7 Investment Types You Should Avoid

2024-02-16

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows.

2024-02-07

(2/7/24) Early morning coffee snafus: That’s no way to start the day. Headline economic data is not comporting with on-the-ground reality: Credit Card and Auto Loan delinquencies are on the rise because borrowers are out of money; there’s been a drop in Labor Force participation. Under the surface, things are not that good. Are Valuations really that cheap? A look back at market performance: The S&P is hitting all-time highs, NASDAQ driven by Tech, but Russell 2000 of Small- and Mid-cap companies are still in Bear mode. Danny hangs out w Larry Fink. Is Suze Orman’s best money moves: Why it’s bad advice. Dealing with short-term money vs long-term money; the Budget Talk at home. Home Contractors woes & FAFO: Release the Kraken! The divergence between positive economic headlines and

2024-01-26

(1/26/24)
Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Time to Trim Portfolios? is here:
&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Netflix & the Phenomenal NASDAQ Decade"
-qPLaTMQ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"All-Time Highs For Stocks As Bitter Economic Headlines Persist"

2024-01-22

(1/22/24) Earnings season continues with the bulk of S&P companies reporting this week: This should provide a clearer picture of how businesses are really doing. Why the Fed did QE according to Ben Bernanke: So Americans would feel better about the economy (never mind the fundamentals). Optimistic consumer confidence is now based on the guess that the Fed will cut rates this year. Markets achieve all-time high on Friday…but are now just .9% above break-even from two years ago. Watch markets set up for correction. All-time highs are like a magnet: How far can this momentum go? Commentary on the impact of AI on businesses, and the problem with AI replacements. Which companies are best able to take advantage of AI? Which companies will drive further development of AI, and how will this

2024-01-18

(1/18/24) Texas Weather’s extreme mood-swings are on display; markets are in bore-mode until the stock buy back window opens again in two weeks; a look at Bitcoin, Gold, & Bonds; Is the Fed about to close down its quantitative easing play? The Yield Curve has invert, but is it about to un-invert? The Fed has a liquidity problem that is rising to the top: There’s not enough collateral in the market, and the Fed’s is about to take away liquidity: What do they see that we do not? How much leverage is still in the system? Michael’s FNMA story; Banks are leveraged 10:1 today, underscoring the importance of overnight markets for survival. The potential of stopping QT to provide needed liquidity. Why interest rates cannot go higher: Too much leverage all the way around. Will the Magnificent-7

2023-11-16

(11/16/23) This will be The Year of the Magnificent Seven–those dominant stocks that have powered the markets, responsible for 112% of this year’s gains. Markets are working through earnings season; Target & WalMart: A tale of Two Retailers. Markets are returning to overbought conditions, ripe for a pullback. Best opportunities to add exposure will likely be post-Thanksgiving. The problem with easing financial conditions for the Fed: heighten exuberance leads to more spending & inflation. 20- Fed speakers this week made no mention of this. Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That’s the Fed’s conundrum. What does the Fed know that they’re

2023-11-13

(11/13/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investing Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "What’s Up with Bonds?"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/2020-vs-2023-are-economists-making-the-same-mistake/
"Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/
"Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren’t"

2023-11-07

(11/7/23) How did WeWork go from $47-B to Bankruptcy? Beware the days’ ‘narrative of the moment’ in interest rates, AI. Market performance ahead, pre- and post-Thanksgiving. Is the Bond Bear market dead or just hibernating? Are bon yields doing the Fed’s dirty work now? WeWork is a symptom. Yields are a function of debt and economic growth = Bond Math. Don’t be distracted by the media. Why the Fed wants higher rates; the risk of recession in 2024: It will not be THE economic event of the year, thanks to existing liquidity and minimum layoffs. Balancing the possibilities vs the probabilities. A brief market preview; reading the emails: Understanding the fundamentals. Why we trimmed Apple: They’re not growing revenue. What is a Moving Average and what does it do? Takes the volatility out