Timing in Investing: Choosing Between Momentum and Value Strategies

2024-06-03

Will the Fed begin cutting rates and restarting monetary accommodation? Such is all that seems to matter. At the same time, investors continue to chase stocks higher based on the current theme. In 2020, it was disrupter stocks. Today, it is artificial intelligence and semiconductor providers. The markets have evolved into a “get rich quick” industry, where Wall Street creates products to fill hungry investors’ demand for the next “hot opportunity.” Such has been a boon for the index ETF industry, financial applications, and trading websites. So the momentum investing issue should be no surprise, given that investors learned to “buy risk” when the Federal Reserve increased monetary accommodation.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent

2024-05-30

Houston is finally #1 in something: Home Foreclosures; Q1 economic data suggests conflict with narrative the economy is doing fine vs anecdotal evidence. The Fed’s Beige Book summary shows not as much concern for inflation as for weakening consumer demand. Weaker stock pricing is also emerging; Can markets hold the 20-DMA? Risk assets are momentum-based trade (Bitcoin); also beginning to weaken. Hedge funds are long semiconductors and AI-related stocks: the AI theme seems to be narrowing. The difference between the Dot-com bubble and AI companies is that AI is making money. What will be the side-benefits AI generates? Note how Nvidia performs: 80% of earnings from AI Data Centers; the power requirements for supporting AI Data Centers. What will power the grid with more AI & EV demands?

2024-04-12

Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economists’ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border.

2024-04-05

It’s the Financial Fitness Friday episode of The Real Investment Show, hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Jonathan McCarty, CFA, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Japans Lost Decades: Are We On The Same Path"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/japans-lost-decades-are-we-on-the-same-path/
"Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-corrections-matter-more-than-you-think/
"Q1 Earnings Season Approaches"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Bernie Madoff Trendline Remains in Effect" is here:
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Our previous show is

2024-04-01

PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70. Markets continue a low-volatility advance, seemingly floating higher. The current environment typically leads to market correction. The next round of earnings commences next week; it will be unsurprising that to see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street estimates. (The high beat rate is always the case due to the sharp downward revisions in analysts’ estimates as the reporting period begins.) Are investors paying more for less? California’s new $20.hr minimum wage goes into effect today; cast study to come. The realities of the cost of labor; at what point do consumers say, "enough."

2024-03-22

What do the Three Stooges and the Fed’s rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We’re living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to deal with reinvestment risks as rates begin to fall; alternatives to getting away from high fixed-income earnings.

3:12 – The Three Rate Cut Stooges
14:23 – Retirement Goal-harvesting
30:16 – Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024
44:33 – Medicare Advantage Risks & Reinvestment Risks as Rates Begin to Drop

Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of