Who’s to Blame for High Energy Prices?

2022-05-10

(5/10/22) Markets have been deeply over-sold, with sentiment so bearish, it’s bullish. Be careful not to throw in the towel, just yet. Markets did sell-off all day Monday, resulting in one of the top-five leading sell-off days in history for retail investors. At three standard deviations below the mean, the S&P is trading 11% below the 200-DMA. But just last year, we were talking about the S&P trading 12% above the mean, setting up for a predicted correction. Previous periods of over-sold conditions into three standard deviation territory, the result has been a reflexive rally. We believe markets are set up similarly now. All that’s needed is a catalyst to create a bullish bias, like softer reading on inflation giving market hope the Fed won’t be quite as hawkish on interest rates.

2022-05-02

(5/2/22) Will April’s showers bring a flowering to the markets in May? Comparing 2021 to now–is a bigger bear market coming? (Anything the Fed says next can tilt markets one way or the other.) The potential for a short-term rally is likely; use it to rebalance risk in portfolios. Wall Street’s golden plateau is "buy & sell;" the velocity of news can destroy market caps overnight; Warren Buffett: "Markets are a Casino." Expectations for shrinkage in Fed balance sheet by mid-June; we may actually be closer to end of market carnage; why we cannot have a bear market: Everyone is expecting it. Avoiding making emotional investment decisions; know when to leave the table. The trouble with comparisons.

1:52 – Is a Bigger Bear Market Coming?
13:09 – Warren Buffett – Markets Are a Casino

2022-04-26

(4/26/22) Markets followed-up Friday’s losses by opening down on Monday and re-test lows from February and March, then bounced back up for a half-percent gain on the day. We’ve seen this kind of reflexive activity before, when markets are trolling along the bottoms…Markets remain over-sold, futures are weaker this morning, with more earnings reports to come today which might set the tone in Tech for tomorrow. Money flows are beginning to turn positive, with follow-through expected over the next few days. For positioning purposes, we’re expecting a rally back to the top of the downtrend line–there is still a lot of angst over inflation, economics, and next week’s Fed meeting. What the Fed has to say next week will drive the markets for the next month. If the Fed admits inflation has

2022-02-12

(2/11/22) With the bigger than expected 7.5% inflation print on Thursday, the next logical question is what will the Fed do? Why Inflation is going to be "sticky" for a while: Energy policy, public policy; when will price elasticity return? Is there an upside to Inflation: recession mentality, inflation mentality–similar to depression mentality of the ’30’s. The onset of Consumer Austerity. IRS Life Expectancy Tables have changed; what this means for your retirement; what happens when current tax law sunsets in 2025? Lunch & Learn recap, Retirement Right Lane preview; the economics of Valentine’s Day.

2:06 – What’s the Fed Going to Do Next?
13:05 – The Bright Side of Inflation
29:03 – What Changes in IRS Life Expectancy Tables Mean for You
43:18 – Lunch & Learn recap, Retirement Right

2022-02-08

(2/8/22) Interest Rates have been inching upward out of concerns over the Fed’s response to rising inflationary pressures–a normal response. But’s also causing concern from investors with fixed-income holdings: what happens when dis-inflation arrives in the economy? As we begin to have slower rates of growth and diminishing rates of inflation on an annualized basis, take caution of a feedback loop into Treasury bonds. The Fed’s rate hikes will also impact Treasuries as yields go up, tracking inflows of foreign capital chasing those higher yields. Remember what happened in 2017? Interestingly, sentiment on bonds–quite ebullient–have not tracked rates, and are as bearish on bonds now as it was in 2017-18. As the Fed works its interest rate alchemy, watch sentiment on Bonds shift from

2022-02-02

What happens following the "Trifecta of Disappointment:" the Santa Claus Rally failed, the first five days of January failed, and the month of January failed–in years in which these occur, markets are down for the year. The odds of the size of a Fed Rate Hike are beginning to drop: Will the the FOMC be as aggressive as we’ve been led to believe? Will we see $90 Oil? Chasing Hard Assets & Commodities; News that boggles the mind; money flows indicate the market bottom is in…plus a few moments of hilarity & mirth.

1:56 – RCA’s 45’s, & Vinyl LP’s
5:37 – January was Brutal,
13:15 – Will the Fed Be as Aggressive as Advertised?
29:08 – Chasing Hard Assets & Commodities
43:08 – Picking on Cali
47:05 – The Market Bottom is In
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance

2022-01-25

(1/25/22) Markets’ sold-off sharply through the first half of the day, with downside liquidation pressure. However, at midday, markets rallied to recover all of the morning’s losses, with a huge volume surge at the end of the day. All of this activity took place within the context of a pre-Fed meeting environment: That discussion will center on whether to hike rates and/or tighten the Fed’s balance sheet, ostensibly to blunt the effects of inflation. But markets are apparently calling the Fed’s bluff by selling off since the beginning of the year. Weakness in Consumer Sentiment and ongoing downward pressure in the markets have got to be concerns for the Fed, possibly shaping it’s actions and tone at this week’s FOMC meeting. But if inflation has already peaked, could the Fed be late in

2022-01-21

The impact on markets of dropping mask and vaccine mandates–and is the Fed too late to the game? How we’re getting "back to normal–"what ever that is; the Fed is in a no-win position: How will it re-price risk? the difference between inflation and dis-inflation; what’s the difference between conservative company and a conservative stock? Is value coming back into style? How to find a "value stock" that’s not a value trap? How to invest for 2022?

1:26 – Is it Time to Short the Vax-makers?
12:39 – How We’re Getting "Back to Normal"
28:37 -The Difference Between Inflation & Dis-Inflation: Will the Fed Re-price Risk?
42:40 – Will "Value" Be the Place to Be for 2022?

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA