by Lance Roberts
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| In light of $SLV jumping 6% today, the commodity supercycle narrative is gaining traction again. Rising prices feel like confirmation—but they often contain the seeds of their own reversal. High prices destroy demand, force substitution, and incentivize new supply. As demand cools and supply catches up, the imbalance flips. We saw this clearly during the pandemic: supply shocks + stimulus drove inflation higher, but reopening and weakening demand brought it back down. Commodities don’t move in straight lines—they operate in boom-bust cycles driven by supply and demand. This doesn’t mean prices can’t stay elevated in the near term, but chasing the “supercycle” at extremes is risky. Stay with the trend, but start managing risk as conditions evolve. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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4-29-26 Oil Doesn’t Peak When The Strait Reopens — It Peaks Before $SPX $USO
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Commodity markets are forward-looking. Traders don’t wait for events to happen—they price in expectations early. So if the market believes reopening is coming, prices top out in advance.
Most people think oil prices are driven mainly by physical supply/demand—but that’s only part of the story.
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– A huge portion = speculators trading futures contracts
These speculators are what move prices day-to-day, reacting quickly to headlines and expectations.
When there’s a talk of reopening the Strait (or a ceasefire), oil drops immediately. This happens because traders understand: oil production hasn’t stopped, it’s just blocked from reaching the market. Example: Iran is still
The Microsoft OpenAI Marriage Is On Rocky Ground
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The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has been a defining partnership in the blooming AI technology. But the partnership terms are changing, and what was once a solid relationship may be fracturing. On Monday morning, Microsoft shares quickly fell 5% as the Bloomberg headline “OpenAI Breaks Free From Exclusive AI Pact With Partner Microsoft” sent concern …
4-27-26 Why is the Market Ignoring the Strait?
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Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have historically sent shockwaves through global markets—especially oil. Yet today, markets appear unusually calm. Why?
Lance Roberts breaks down the disconnect between rising geopolitical risk and resilient equity markets, exploring why investors may be discounting the threat, including shifting oil correlations, expectations for contained conflict, and the role of liquidity, positioning, and market structure.
Key topics include:
0:00 – INTRO
1:02 – Assassination Attempts & Strait of Hormuz News
5:12 – Markets Consolidate to Close at All-time Highs
9:44 – Data Center Plays Today
15:06 – Men, Women, & Movies
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29:42 – What To Do Now
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1-26-26 Bitcoin: Diversifier or Distraction – The Parker White Interview
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Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are once again at the center of investor debate—but for very different reasons than past cycles. Lance Roberts and special guest, DeFi Development Corp’s COO, Parker White, examine what’s been happening beneath the surface of the crypto market, including the growing divide between older and younger Bitcoin cohorts and the increasing fractionalization of crypto ownership.
Is Bitcoin’s volatility evolving in a way that allows it to function as a portfolio diversifier, especially when compared to traditional hedges, like gold? What is its potential role in an all-weather portfolio? With 2026 shaping up as a potential “catch-up trade” year, we also address why altcoins continue to lag—and whether they still have a place in diversified portfolios.
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The Money Supply Myth: Context Matters
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12-1-25 Bear Markets Are a Good Thing
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Bear markets aren’t the enemy—they’re the reset that creates future returns.
Lance Roberts breaks down why market downturns are a normal, necessary, and even healthy part of a full market cycle. We explore how bear markets cleanse excess speculation, reset valuations, restore forward returns, and give disciplined investors long-term opportunities to improve financial outcomes.
We’ll discuss why drawdowns feel worse than they are, why expectations matter more than predictions, how risk management reduces behavioral mistakes, and why volatility is a feature—not a flaw—of investing.
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Year-End Rally Begins
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🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
The K Shaped Economy In One Graph
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Tuesday’s weak Consumer Confidence report was a good reminder of why some economists are calling our economy the K shaped economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, below expectations of 93. Moreover, it sits at levels similar to those of early 2020, when the pandemic shuttered the economy. …
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