by Lance Roberts
My articles My offerMy siteAbout meMy videosMy books
Follow on:TwitterSeeking AlphaFacebookAmazon
| Markets finally pulled back after a relentless momentum-driven rally, but history suggests parabolic advances rarely end quietly. Lance Roberts & Tom Thornton break down the growing signs of a speculative bubble forming beneath the surface of the market, from DeMark Exhaustion Sell Signals and narrow market breadth to surging semiconductor inflows, Korean market speculation, and rising energy-driven inflation risks. We examine why tech leadership is becoming dangerously concentrated, how crude oil and gasoline prices could reignite CPI pressures, and why the Fed may be effectively finished with rate cuts. We also discuss the “immediate gratification economy,” emerging market weakness, fertilizer and commodity pressures, and the growing disconnect between market optimism and economic reality. Plus, we analyze why investors may want to diversify, take profits while they still can, and rethink the difference between long-term investing and speculative casino behavior. NOTE: This interview was pre-recorded on 5/7/26. 00:00 - Intro 1:20 - Market Correction, as Predicted 4:00 - Parabolic Spikes Have Happened Before 5:53 - There's a Bubble Brewing - Bullish Sentiment (slide) 8:53 - DeMark Exhaustion Sell Signals (slide) - what they are 10:54 - What the Signals are Saying (13's) 11:40 - Nasdaq 100 w DeMark Exhaustion Sell Signals 12:25 - Korean Kospi Index - Most Important in the World, next to U.S. 13:38 - GS Data Center & Memory Baskets (slide) 15:25 - SMH Semi's & EWY Korea ETF Inflows (slide) 18:35 - Memory Chip Price Gouge 20:56 - EWY Korean ETF 21:47 - QQQ vs SPX and SMH vs SPX Ratios (slide) 23:08 - Narrow Market Breadth 24:26 - Markets Regurgitate Same News, over and over 25:43 - Paul Tudor Jones: "United States has never been more dependent on the stock market than ever before." 26:41 - XLK Tech vs SPX & RSP Equal Weight vs SPX ratios (slide) 29:13 - Crude Traders are "in a bunker" on fears of Crude Oil draws 30:20 - Crude Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices, and CPI 33:33 - The Fed is Done 34:28 - What if...it's all about timing 36:15 - Are Emerging Markets Losing Their Luster? 38:26 - High Energy Prices' Impact on Consumer Spending into Foreign Markets 38:51 - Living in the Immediate Gratification Economy 39:33 - The Fertilizer Issue 40:43 - Gasoline Prices and the Lag-effect on CPI 42:11 - The Call to Take Profits While You Can 42:56 - Catalyst List: Crude, Bonds, Rates - This is a call to diversify 44:52 - Warren Buffett - Church vs Casino Investing (Why we sold our Berkshire stock) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "A SimpleVisor Tutorial," Thursday, June 4, 2025 at Noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/MwairsimgmnS -------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketBubble #Nasdaq #Investing #FederalReserve |
You Might Also Like
The Fed Is Losing Its Biggest Dove
2026-05-15
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires this Friday, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor. The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership. Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, is seeing his term come …
5-13-26 Use Berkshire As A Hedge But Don’t Miss This Market
2026-05-13
Berkshire Hathaway $BRK remains a solid long-term holding, but it’s lagging in today’s market due to limited AI exposure and a large cash position that drags on returns during bull runs that we have now.
That same cash, however, makes it a useful hedge in a risk-heavy portfolio, offering downside protection when markets pull back.
The recent leadership transition from Warren Buffett to Greg Abel adds another layer of uncertainty that may take time for investors to fully price in.
This isn’t a reason to avoid Berkshire, but it does explain the underperformance.
At the same time, sitting in cash waiting for a big correction is risky, as any pullback is likely to be shallow and short-lived right now unless something big happens.
A better approach is to gradually deploy capital
Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already
2026-05-11
The parabolic semiconductor rally crossed a line this week. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, closed Friday at $509.77 after touching a fresh intraday high of $511.68. That’s a gain of roughly 244% from the April 2025 low of $148.31. Most of that move has been compressed into the last two months alone. Since mid-March, SOXX …
Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade
2026-02-04
“Japan Bond Meltdown Sends Yields to Record High on Fiscal Fears,” read a January 2026 Bloomberg article. Headlines like this, and many others, warn that Japan’s abrupt interest rate increase is an omen of dire trouble. While that may be the case, given decades of economic woes, declining demographics, and extreme levels of outstanding debt, …
1-30-26 This Indicator Is Screaming 2021-Level Speculation Again
2026-01-30
Retail risk appetite has surged to extreme levels last seen in early 2021, a period marked by peak speculation.
Margin debt is accelerating as speculative money rapidly rotates across assets, with $SLV and $GLD the latest examples.
In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why history shows these conditions often lead to sharp volatility, not smooth market advances.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
A Third Of US Debt Matures In 2026
2025-12-12
We received the following question from a client: “I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay it back?” A third of the approximately $30 trillion in US Treasury debt equates to …
Is Japan In A Death Spiral?: A Contrarian Take
2025-12-09
A day doesn’t seem to go by without a market pundit asserting that Japan is in a monetary and fiscal death spiral. It’s easy to come to such a conclusion given: Based on those stats and others, it’s easy to see why many think it’s only a matter of time before Japan’s economic system collapses. …
12-8-25 Bullish Case or Bearish Backdrop? The Real Market Setup for 2026
2025-12-08
Lance Roberts looks at both sides of the Market Cycle—the bullish liquidity-driven momentum and the bearish fundamental weaknesses. With support and resistance levels tightening around the S&P 500, and the Fed meeting, economic data, and major earnings directly ahead, investors must prepare for a market that could swing in either direction in 2026.
0:00 – INTRO
0:18 – Markets Set up for Santa Claus Rally
5:30 – Expect Sloppy Trading This Week
11:22 – Economic Summit, Elf on a Shelf, & Baylor Dating
14:42 – Market Outlook for 2026
16:36 – The Case for Bullishness
21:29: The Bullish Backdrop
24:13 – The Case for Bearishness
27:52 – Stress in Credit markets
28:36 – The Risk for Lower Returns
29:59 – Investing Strategies for 2026
35:06 – Cash Provides Optionality
38:16 – The Cost of
Tags: Featured,newsletter
