5-23-24 Who Will Profit Most from the Next Tech Boom?

2024-05-07

Economists’ ‘rush-to-judgement’ vs the lag effect catching up w economic data. Consumer spending and loan demand are waning as excesses in money supply are normalizing. The data re beginning to refute the "no recession" theme. Market correction is now over, bullish trend to resume. The challenge of NOT expecting recession; what the data is starting to show; not a lot of risk in credit markets…yet. That’s where trouble will show up first. Geopolitical conflicts do mot matter to markets for long; world wars do. Spreads between corporate bonds vs treasuries are at an all time low (90bp). There’s no stress in the economy…so far; pay attention to credit risk. 20th Anniversary of 2008 Financial Crisis is approaching. Letters from the IRS and a $34-B tax bill; the rich need to pay their

2024-05-01

Having cash on hand allows for seizing great opportunities. Wise investing involves careful consideration, not reckless decisions. #financialwisdom

In this video, Lance Roberts delves into the strategic value of maintaining a cash reserve. Discover why holding cash can be a critical element in savvy investing practices.

– Understand the importance of having liquidity in your investment strategy.
– Learn how cash reserves give you the flexibility to act on unexpected opportunities.
– Find out why thorough analysis and patience are crucial before investing.
– Hear why impulsively investing can be detrimental to your financial health.
– Get professional insights on managing your capital wisely in a fluctuating market.

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:

2024-04-30

Over the last two weeks, the bullish sentiment index has reversed from extreme greed to fear. While the index can indeed fall further, what is notable is the sharp reversal of market “exuberance” in such a short span. It would be unsurprising if the market failed this initial resistance test and ultimately retested the 100-DMA soon. Such a pullback would solidify that support and complete the reversal of the bullish sentiment index.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jon Penn, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Bullish Sentiment Index Reverses With Buybacks Resuming"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-sentiment-index-reverses-with-buybacks-resuming/
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2024-04-22

Despite reports of strong sales, when adjusted for inflation, the numbers reveal a different story – highlighting potential concerns for employment and small businesses. #RetailSales #EconomicIndicators

Take a closer look at what the sales figures really mean with Lance Roberts. Discover why, despite appearances, inflation-adjusted sales are not as robust as you might think.
– Exploring the discrepancy between reported sales figures and their inflation-adjusted reality
– Examining the correlation between weak inflation-adjusted sales and retail performance
– Understanding the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)’s concerns regarding small business sales
– Delving into the implications of poor sales on employment growth
– Unveiling the economic indicators that are

2024-04-10

Having risen by about 40% since last October, Gold is on a moonshot. Many investment professionals consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, measuring the level of anxiety in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics.

2024-04-04

In this week’s Fedapolooza, Fed spokespersons seem to be growthin less hawkish about rates. Inflation is simply a function of supply & demand. There is a high correlation between GDP/CPI and interest rates. When inflation comes down, so will rates. Watching tomorrow’s employement report: ADP is a poor predictor of BLS data. The Bernie Madoff trendline remains intact in markets; bullish sentiment is very high; bear sightings on Wall Street are rare. Technical trends of inflation are falling as the economy slows; comparisons of Japanese and U.S. economies; discussion on the economic impact on younger generations. Central Bank dominance: Control of markets destroys capitalism. Capitalism is eroding. Discussion of Capitalism vs Socialism and excessive government intervention: What the public

2024-02-22

Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does

2024-01-31

(1/31/24) Earnings season continues, with AMD, Google, Microsoft, and NVDIA expected to fall after turning in their reports: Earnings have been okay, but not as good as expected. After "good" reports, watch for increased volatility and rotation from the NASDAQ into the Dow. Bond prices are on the rise, yields are dropping, as Treasury announces a smaller than expected debt issuance. There’s a Trojan Horse in the proposed Childcare Tax Credit bill: a huge disincentive to work; the ugly truth about falling rates of inflation: Prices do not go back down. CPI-W vs CPI-E and how COLA is calculated. Danny’s home rehab update. "You Earned It, You Keep It" Act: what if could mean for retirees. SS Tax Repeal explainer; the evolution of SS, and repeal of SS earnings tax. Let’s fix the climate by