by Lance Roberts
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| #CrudeOil rices are rising, and that’s creating a roblem the Fed can’t fix. Higher oil ushes inflation u, but it also slows growth by hitting consumers and businesses. This is a suly shock driven by geoolitics, not demand, so rate olicy has limited imact. As a result, the bond market is starting to shift focus from inflation risk to weakening GDP. Historically, oil shocks lead to slower growth, and this time the economy was already soft with weakening emloyment. The longer oil stays elevated, the greater the downside risk to growth, utting the Fed in a true olicy tra. 📺Full eisode: -Ab5gxKSc Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: htts://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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The Passive Aggressive Market: Bogle’s Warning Came True
2026-03-04
Since the pandemic, the line between passive investing and aggressive speculation has blurred. The current bout of speculative fervor extends beyond financial markets. For instance, we see the same impulse in the explosion of sports betting and the surge in event-betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket. In the investment arena, margin debt is at record …
1-17-26 Why Position Size Matters More Than Stock Picks
2026-01-17
Position sizing, not stock picking, is what determines long-term investing success.
In this Short video, Lance Roberts explains why oversized positions create hidden risk, how greed compounds losses, and why managing exposure is essential for compounding wealth over time.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
The Silver Surge: Micro Bubble Or Reasonable Valuation?
2026-01-14
Silver has been on a tear, rising fourfold in the last few years. The price is driven by the narrative of dollar debasement. Furthermore, there are indications that limited supply, along with growing industrial demand for silver, warrants higher prices. As we have stated in recent articles (Debasement, What It Is And Isn’t & Dollar …
Why Peak Confidence Is At Market Peaks
2025-11-28
When investors feel certain and in control, risk is actually at its peak.
In this short video, @Peter_Atwater and I discuss how this “comfort zone” blinds investors to uncertainty and inflates market optimism.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Market Bubbles: A Rational Guide To An Irrational Market
2025-11-24
We’re hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidia’s valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little to no revenue. Investment in data centers, chips, and infrastructure is happening at a scale …
10-13-25 Markets vs Reality: Daniel LaCalle on the Coming Global Reset
2025-10-07
Are markets completely disconnected from economic reality?
In this in-depth conversation, Lance Roberts sits down with Daniel LaCalle, Chief Economist at Tressis and author of "Freedom or Equality," to discuss the illusion of wealth, the rise of sovereign debt bubbles, and why the next financial crisis may already be unfolding beneath the surface.
Key takeaway: Markets may look strong, but the foundations are far weaker than investors believe.
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10-6-25 Bear Market Losses: The Dangerous Illusion Investors Fall For
2025-10-06
Investors often believe that when markets “recover,” their portfolios do too — but that’s a dangerous illusion. In this episode, Lance Roberts breaks down why percentage losses and gains are not symmetrical, and how a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even.
We’ll discuss why bear market math destroys long-term returns, how emotional investors get trapped in the “illusion of recovery,” and why managing risk during drawdowns matters more than chasing every rally.
0:19 – The First Full Trading Week of October – Action
4:11 – Markets – Overbought & Overconfident?
9:27 – Where is the Promised Recession?
12:06 – What is Supporting the Market?
15:53 – The Overall Liquidity Base is Still Flush
19:19 – Annual vs Intra-year Returns Comparison
22:18 – Understanding Losses in Bear
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