by Lance Roberts
My articles My offerMy siteAbout meMy videosMy books
Follow on:TwitterSeeking AlphaFacebookAmazon
| Markets are hitting a critical inflection point—and the stakes are rising fast. A major policy speech from Donald Trump sparked volatility, just as markets tested a key cluster of technical resistance. Now investors are facing a bigger question: is the market environment shifting from a short-term rally to something more structural? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: * Why elevated oil prices could reignite inflation and complicate the Fed’s next move * Whether the Federal Reserve is walking into a policy trap between inflation and slowing growth * What matters more right now: GDP or inflation—and why the answer could surprise you * Early warning signs from Nike earnings and forward estimates * Why foreign investors may be selling U.S. Treasuries—and what that means for yields and markets * The growing debate around fiat currency, private credit stress, and systemic risk * How to interpret market narratives and avoid being “sold” the wrong story Lance Michael also discuss portfolio positioning in a volatile environment, why avoiding emotional reactions is critical, and how to think through multiple market outcomes from both optimistic and pessimistic perspectives. This is a must-watch breakdown for investors navigating rising uncertainty across inflation, interest rates, and global capital flows. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 1:14 - Trump Address Roils Markets 7:16 - Markets Test Cluster of Resistance 13:00 - Two Moms' Recap 14:16 - Higher Oil Prices' Impact on Economy 16:15 - Markets Looking for Impact on Forward Earnings 18:18 - Avoid Volatility 19:37 - Between AI & Wife, Lance can Quit 20:09 - Elevated Oil Prices, Inflationary Impact - What's the Fed's Move? 22:05 - What Matters More: GDP or Inflation? 26:08 - Chat Etiquette 27:03 - Is the Fed Set Up for a Potential Trap? 28:49 - Nike Earnings & Forward Estimates 30:09 - Is Market Tone Shifting - Why Foreigners are Selling Treasuries Now 35:30 - The Death of Fiat Currency 38:26 - Consider All Perspectives (What are they trying to sell you?) 40:22 - Private Credit Gating - Pessimists vs Optimists ------ Register for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Beyond Filing: Turning Your Tax Return into a Strategic Financial Plan," TODAY, April 2, at 12-noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/j9BYjeW2teTJ ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/p-Abp5gxKSc ------- Watch our previous show, "Wives Take Over: Money, Marriage, and Real Talk," https://youtube.com/live/wTSSjezC_jI ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Will AI Trigger The Next Great Depression?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/will-ai-trigger-the-next-great-depression/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "200-DMA Rejection: Bounce or Breakdown?" is here: _TCsdY ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketUpdate #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingStrategy #SP500 #FederalReserve #Inflation #StockMarket #InterestRates #Investing |
You Might Also Like
The Business Cycle Narrative & War With Iran
2026-02-21
🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief – War With Iran On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s signature tariffs. The ruling affects tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) which includes the so-called reciprocal tariffs at various levels against nations all around the world to address trade imbalances, as well …
2-19-26 Defensive Stocks At 1999-Level Valuations?
2026-02-19
In this short video, Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz discuss $WMT and that it is trading at valuations not seen since 1999.
Staples are no longer “cheap defensive value.”
They have become expensive.
Walmart is trading at roughly 48x forward earnings—valuation levels typically associated with high-growth tech companies expanding 20%+ annually. Yet, its growth rate is closer to 4–5%.
The bigger risk in this market isn’t AI or geopolitics — it’s overpaying for slow growth. When investors overpay for modest growth, future returns are compressed.
Valuations still matter.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
2-18-26 How To Manage Capital In A Rotation-Driven Market
2026-02-18
Markets aren’t breaking — they’re rotating.
The smart move isn’t going all in or all out. Trim overbought sectors like energy $XLE, materials $XLB, and industrials $XLI, and gradually add to oversold areas with strong forward growth, such as software $XLK $IGV.
If you’re up this year, don’t rush to cash out and risk chasing back in later. Stay allocated, rebalance, raise selective cash, and let process and risk management guide decisions instead of emotions.
That’s how you navigate a rotational market without sabotaging yourself.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Market Outlook For 2026
2026-01-03
🔎 At a Glance 💬 Don’t Miss Our Upcoming “Live & In Person” Summit Our 2026 Summit is a limited-seating event, so secure your tickets now before they sell out. Topics Include: I look forward to seeing you there. 🏛️ Market Brief – Strong Year-End Returns Lead to Bullish Market Outlooks Let’s start this week …
QE Is Coming: The 2008 Roots Of Fed Dominance
2025-11-12
Here we go again. The overnight funding markets are showing signs of stress, and the scent of QE is in the air. Per New York Fed President John Williams: Based on recent sustained repo market pressures and other growing signs of reserves moving from abundant to ample, I expect that it will not be long …
An Economic Data Flood Is Coming: Does It Matter?
2025-11-11
Buckle Up! With the end of the government shutdown and the return to work of government employees comes a flood of economic data. Below is a list of old economic data that should be released over the coming weeks: The list goes on. But, of more importance is whether or not the markets will care …
11-7-25 Top 3 Financial Guardrails You Should Know
2025-11-07
RIA Advisors’ Financial Guardrails are timeless principles for building lasting wealth and protecting your financial future. Richard Rosso, CFP®, shares insights from decades of experience helping investors avoid common pitfalls and build financial wellness that lasts generations. From annuities and debt control to emotional investing and realistic return expectations, these guardrails are designed to keep you on track — no matter what markets do.
#FinancialPlanning #WealthManagement #InvestingTips #RetirementPlanning #MoneyMindset
Tariffs Are On The Docket: Will SCOTUS Upset The Market?
2025-11-05
The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) will begin hearing arguments challenging President Trump’s use of tariffs. Given the market volatility that tariffs have generated over the last six months, the SCOTUS case could prove to be yet another market-moving event. The tariff challengers argue that the administration overstepped its bounds under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers …
Tags: Featured,newsletter
24 pings
Skip to comment form ↓