by Lance Roberts
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| Markets are pricing in strong growth and big earnings gains next year, but the labor and inflation data point to a slowing economy. In this short video, Joseph Wang and I discuss why the Fed is relying on productivity rather than job growth to drive the economy—and why that assumption is the key risk to watch in 2026. 📺Full interview: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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1-1-26 2026 Market Outlook: Bullish Case, Bear Risks & Strategy
2025-12-17
As we begin the new year, this New Year’s Day market outlook takes a balanced, risk-aware look at what 2026 may hold for investors. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the bullish case for markets, including the macro and technical backdrops supporting higher prices, while also addressing the growing risks beneath the surface—particularly stress in credit markets and the potential for lower long-term returns.
The discussion explores how elevated valuations, tighter financial conditions, and shifting economic dynamics could impact portfolio outcomes in the year ahead. We also outline practical investment strategies for 2026, including why cash can provide valuable optionality during periods of volatility and uncertainty.
Additional topics include a preview of the 2026 Economic Summit,
Kevin Warsh Or Kevin Hassett?
2025-12-17
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed Trump’s inclusion of Kevin Warsh in the race for Federal Reserve chair. Today, we compare some key differences between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Understanding what each contributes to the Fed helps us better assess their effects on capital markets. Kevin Warsh was a Fed Governor from 2006 through 2011. We learned …
10-31-25 A Daily Dose Of Charts & Graphs
2025-10-31
In this Short video, I cover the $DXY breakout from a long base, the EUR weakening outlook, and why $EURUSD could revert toward 1.12 over the next 18 months.
I also touch on labor market strain hinting at a stealth recession, collapsing market breadth, and what these signals mean as we enter the seasonally strongest six months of the year $SPY $QQQ — everything you need in one visual macro update.
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Rebasing The Dollar: Another Look At The Debasing Narrative
2025-10-29
The phrase “debasing the currency” is all the rage in the media. Moreover, the debasement narrative is used to support the significant surge in gold and other precious metal prices. We have written a few articles on the subject of debasement, for example: Dollar Debasement and Debasement: What It Is and Isn’t. To help further …
10-28-25 Profit Taking Made Simple
2025-10-28
Taking profits sounds easy—until you try it with a smaller account.
Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn answer listeners’ question about managing portfolios spread across myriad stocks, with allocations similar to the S&P 500. When positions are small, trimming into strength or reinvesting during market highs can feel nearly impossible.
0:19 – Profit Taking, Earnings, & FOMC Meeting Previews
4:48 – Market Bullishness Confirmed
10:05 – Managing Risk in Volatile Markets
13:55 – There’s no Perfect Time
15:31 – Profit Taking in a C-fund 401k
21:05 – Taking Profits in Small Portfolios
23:11 – The Wisdom of Position Sizing
29:45 – What About Weighting in ETF’s – There’s no holy grail
34:36 – Documenting Allocation Models
39:01 – What Allocation Model is Best for You?
45:22 – The Three-legged Stool
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