by Lance Roberts
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| ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: The Fed delivered a far more dovish cut than markets expected. In this short video, Michael Lebowitz and I discuss why Powell’s tone shifted, what he revealed about jobs and inflation, and why this matters for markets now. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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12-4-25 Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink Finally Ending?
2025-12-04
Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end?
For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair’s view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed.
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down:
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets
4:45 – Markets Prep for Year End Rally
9:33 – 2026 Economic Summit Tease
10:32 – Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman?
13:25 – Is Fed Groupthink Ending?
16:13 – How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets
18:02 – How About a Pre-2000 Fed?
24:08 – "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 – It’s All About Liquidity
Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending
2025-12-03
Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fed’s liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway. We can sum up the Fed regime change with a popular quip: The Fed has shifted from lender of last resort to the lender of only resort! In our articles QE Is …
12-1-25 A Perfect Year-End Rally Setup But With One Big Warning
2025-12-01
Markets $SPX $NDX followed classic seasonality with a November dip that set up a potential year-end rally. But after six straight monthly gains, the odds of a pullback are rising.
In this short video, I explain why seasonality supports upside, but this streak makes risk management more important than ever.
HSBC Casts Doubt On OpenAI’s Future
2025-12-01
Per the Financial Times (LINK), HSBC has serious doubts about OpenAI’s financial wherewithal. The following bullet points outline HSBC’s assumptions, which highlight the challenging financial path OpenAI faces. The graphic below from the article shows that HSBC expects OpenAI to run a massive operating loss in the year 2030. Accordingly, they have serious concerns about …
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