8-14-24 Looking for Rate Cut Clues in CPI Data

2024-08-09

📉 Worried about a recession? 🤔 Economic experts say consumer behavior is key. Stay tuned to see how things unfold! 💼 #Economy #ConsumerBehavior

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2024-08-08

Check out our Fear Greed Index! Investor allocations have surged from extremely low to high, indicating bullish market sentiment. 📈 #Investing #MarketTrends

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2024-08-06

Monday’s Carry Trade-inspired blowout saw lots of selling , but a little bit of recovery before the dust settled. The ISM Services Report clocked-in a little stronger than expected, taking fears of imminent Recession off the table. The Fed might not have to cut rates as much. Markets are now over sold by three standard deviations off the moving average; a bounce is in the office, but this could be the beginning of a bigger correction. Lance and Jon provide some clarification and perspective: Market points vs percentages; now vs 2020 or 1980: how much are we up since 202? Recessions are based on consumer sentiment and contraction in spending. How the "unwinding" creates another cycle of unwinding; note that 82% of S&P companies are now out of the stock buy back blackout period; some

2024-08-02

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator.

So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator to the long list of other recessionary indicators, also flashing warning signs.

As discussed in “Conference Board Scraps Its Recession Call,” the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has a long history of accurately predicting recession outcomes. As we showed, each previous decline in the 6-month rate of change in the LEI from the Conference Board has aligned with a recession. We are currently in one of the most extended periods on record

2024-07-30

Earnings season continues with 39% of S&P reporting this week; by week’s end, 79% of companies will have shared results…and the buy back window opens anew. The Fed meeting begins today, with a slim chance for a surprise rate cut; a more dovish tone will encourage markets, however, and anticipate rate cut by September. Commentary on markets’ 3% correction & Japanese Yen carry trade effects. Addressing the correct response to correction: Average returns are not the norm; risk on/off behaviors. Anchoring life events: What’s the best anchoring for portfolios? Lance and Jon discuss a common mistake investors make when evaluating their portfolio performance, and explains why comparing your returns to the overall market is not always the best approach: The worst thing investors do is compare

2024-05-27

We are closed Monday (5/27) in honor of those Americans who gave the last, full measure to defend our freedoms. Remember the fallen. We’ll be back Tuesday with market. investing, and economic info for you!
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2024-05-22

Remember the.com crash? Many young investors today never experienced a financial crisis like 2008. It’s important to learn from history to navigate market uncertainties. #financialcrisis #investing

The dot-com crash was a pivotal moment in financial history, but its impact is often forgotten. Join Lance Roberts as he revisits this era and discusses its relevance to today’s market.
– The gradual decline of the dot-com crash
– Opportunities for risk reduction during the crash
– The long duration of the market downturn
– The lack of recession experience among modern investors
– The post-2008 market perception by new traders and writers

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757

➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a

2024-05-16

Markets hit all-time highs with softer CPI: The biggest contributor was decline in Homeowners’ Equivalent Rent. Markets are now anticipating two rate cuts this year. Consumers are showing signs of weakening; hardest hit are Gen-Z & Millennials. Stocks & Bonds rally on weaker CPI; markets are extremely over bought. Look for a re-test of the 50-DMA with market corrective action anticipated. WalMart has decent earnings; consumer spending is what drives the economy. Quality of Employment numbers matter: Full Time vs Part Time Jobs; Why the Government’s Employment formula is bogus. How we calculate Inflation now (also bogus). The Risk is never zero. Answering emails: When will the market crash? Being out of the market; more money is lost trying to avoid a crash than is lost during a crash.