| The world did not return to its business-as-usual, pre-pandemic normal. Instead, we are currently in a transition phase characterized by what Bruce Mehlman calls The Four Addictions. Bruce Mehlman is a partner at Mehlman Consulting (https://mehlmanconsulting.com/team-member/bruce-p-mehlman), and previously served as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Technology Policy under President George W. Bush. He has over two decades of experience in assisting leaders and organizations to understand, anticipate, and navigate political risk. In this week’s interview, Bruce and I discuss the four main challenges he sees as we navigate a period of tough domestic choices and geopolitical realignments. Highlights of our conversation include: - Identifying the four addictions: China, digitalization, easy money, and debt. - Key factors that have drawn us into an unsustainable state. - Why our costliest systems were not built to cope with changing demographics. - How debt discipline might be imposed on us from external forces. - How the US’s need to decouple from China will entail both pain and opportunity. - How the possibility of direct confrontation with China requires new military strategy and doctrine. - The great AI freak out of 2023 and the need for guardrails. - Whether we need a big-change event or personality to unify our resolve to kick our addictions. You can download The Four Addictions slide deck here: https://mehlmanconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/The-Four-Addictions-Q2-2023-Mehlman.pdf Stay informed on the big trends by subscribing to Global Macro Update here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/global-macro-update Time stamps: 0:00 The US has four addictions that will be hard to break 0:57 We are not going back to business as usual 1:25 The four addictions: China, digitization, easy money, and debt 2:10 US dependencies are unsustainable 2:57 The US debt addiction 5:03 The drivers of debt 6:15 The mood in Washington about debt 8:00 The China addiction—pain and opportunity 13:50 The China addiction is a global issue—is military conflict inevitable? 18:14 The digitalization addiction 20:17 The great 2023 AI freak out 23:32 AI and the regulation question 25:07 We’re headed into our first AI election—deep fakes and dirty tricks 26:21 Links between addictions pose tough challenges 28:05 What might be needed to spur corrective actions |
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