Macro Framework Briefing – Investing in 2024

2024-02-13

George Friedman says there are two Chinas: one based in Shanghai and another that is still effectively a third-world country. He paints a grim picture of China, with security lockdowns, home inspections, and paralysis among its leaders. He says Xi Jinping may have already lost control, and the risk of civil war is real.

George and I also unpack the military stalemate in Ukraine and the increasingly complex posturing in the Middle East.

You will also hear why China won’t invade Taiwan, which Middle East country is the best model for success, and how the US could help end the war in Ukraine.

George Friedman is a renowned geopolitical strategist, best-selling author, and the founder of Geopolitical Futures. You can get special access to his work at Geopolitical Futures by following the

2024-02-09

Grant Williams connected me with Evergreen Gavekal CIO David Hay many years ago,
calling him “one of the good guys.”

In this interview, David and I unpack the future of nuclear energy and oil & gas investing,
along with the trouble in China’s stock and real estate markets.

David adds to my long list of reasons why China is un-investable right now. He also
shares a specific investing signal we should all watch—and deems it “the most
important thing” in our conversation. It’s a technique endorsed by Paul Tudor J ones.

You will also hear about the opportunities David sees in Japan, the ticker of an insurance
company David likes right now, and why he’s personally invested in molten salt small
nuclear reactors.

For all of us following the nuclear energy revival, David recommends reading

2024-01-12

Former US Army Ranger Paul Scharre knows all about AI’s darker potential. He talks to Mauldin Economics publisher Ed D’Agostino about AI’s role in combat, the rise of Chinese-style techno-authoritarianism, and US vulnerabilities in the Panama Canal.

Paul is the Executive Vice President of the Center for a New American Security. He’s authored two books, including Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Prior to that, he completed multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Paul shares Ed D’Agostino’s concerns about AI in the hands of adversaries like China, who are using AI-driven facial recognition for widespread public surveillance. Watch the interview to hear the part about China’s public surveillance that most Americans miss…

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2023-12-15

Good stuff is happening. GDP is up. Unemployment is low. Inflation has dropped. And families are bringing in more money than they have in years. Yet people seem miserable. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm explains the disconnect between the rosy economic data and how people perceive things.

Please be sure to subscribe to Global Macro Update on the Mauldin Economics website. Subscribers get a free weekly email with a link to each new video, additional commentary from Ed D’Agostino on these interviews, and a full transcript.

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Learn more about Claudia Sahm here:
https://stayathomemacro.substack.com

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/claudiasahm/

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2023-12-08

When Felix Zulauf has a hunch, he’s usually right. Mauldin Economics Publisher Ed D’Agostino interviews Zulauf, the former head of UBS’s institutional portfolio management group and the founder of Zulauf Consulting, about the end of the multipolar world and where the markets are headed.

Please be sure to subscribe to Global Macro Update on the Mauldin Economics website. Subscribers get a free weekly email with a link to each new video, additional commentary from Ed D’Agostino on these interviews, and a full transcript.

Go here to subscribe to Global Macro Update: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM528N/YTB

Learn more about Felix Zulauf here: https://www.felixzulauf.com/about-us/

Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/

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2023-12-01

Argentina may have finally done something right. Mauldin Economics Publisher Ed D’Agostino interviews Jared Dillian, author of the soon-to-be-released book No Worries and Editor of The Daily Dirtnap, about investing in emerging markets, Argentina’s new anarcho-capitalist president-elect, and how to build a “life hedge” into your portfolio.

Preorder Jared Dillian’s new book, No Worries, here:
https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/go/JD037MS0014/MEC

Learn more about Jared Dillian here:
https://www.jareddillianmoney.com

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2023-11-10

China wants to de-risk its economy away from the US and US allies. As former UBS economist George Magnus put it in this episode of Global Macro Update, China has been “pursuing policies that we would now call decoupling” for the past 10 or 15 years. Its goal is to “establish dominant market shares of 70% or more in a range of modern industries at the frontier of science and technology.”

George is the author of several books, including Red Flags: How Xi’s China Is in Jeopardy. He’s also an associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. He speaks to Mauldin Economics Publisher Ed D’Agostino about everything investors need to know about China today.

You can learn more about George Magnus here:
https://www.georgemagnus.com

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